Journal of European Integration History – Revue d'histoire de l'

38Markus Schultelate this trend over the whole period up to 1964, and to take note of the deviationfrom this trend that occurred after 1959. The study is based on quarterly trade statisticsas published in the volumes (part 3) of Der Aussenhandel der Bundesrepublikand is done for the seven sectors of textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals,non-ferrous metals, non-ferrous metal products, paper and paper products, machineryand electrical products 8 .The aims of the study were to find out about the actual import pressures thatalready existed in the absence of the free trade area and British EEC-membership.At the same time the study permits us to obtain a clearer picture of the importanceof individual export markets or competing foreign industries on the home market aswell as of the common market for individual industrial sectors. On this basis itbecomes clear that the fear of import competition from, say, the Scandinaviancountries did not necessarily concern the German home market but rather the prospectof a more or less significant opportunity cost in expanding export marketswithin the EEC. Overall the study enables us to judge with a greater degree of differentiationwhat the general impact of the EEC – EFTA division was, in what waythis situation differed according to individual sectors, which export markets wereof the greatest significance, where trade expanded the most, and whose competitionhad to be feared.Likely Winners from the FTA and British Accession.Machinery, Chemicals and Electrical EngineeringAmong the expanding sectors of German industry and hence among the likely winnersfrom a Europe-wide free trade arrangement were the chemical and pharmaceuticalsectors, electrical and electronic products, as well as the machinery industry.Together with the motor car industry and a number of other expanding sectors, theirprospects concerning the establishment of the EEC and the project of a Europewidefree trade area were broadly similar, a similarity related to their rapid and gen-7. Portugal has not been included in the present quantitative analysis given that its trade with Germanywas of minor importance in terms of the percentage share of overall German foreign trade and ascompared to trade with the other members of EFTA. In the pilot study to the present analysis, conductedon the basis of annual foreign trade data, sectoral trade data were often unavailable for Portugal.In view of this and in view of the minor importance of the Portuguese market for German exportindustries, Portugal has been omitted from this analysis, because it was felt that the immense amountof additional data entry and processing would not be in any reasonable relationship to the explanatoryvalue of the outcome that could be expected on the basis of the pilot study. It is also evident that,concerning the FTA, EFTA and British accession, German industry was mainly worried about thechanges in trade relations with Britain, the Scandinavian countries, Austria and Switzerland whereasPortugal figured only marginally if at all in any of the analyses and position papers coming from Germanindustry.8. STATISTISCHES BUNDESAMT [ed.], Der Aussenhandel der Bundesrepublik Deutschland undBerlins (West). Teil 3. Der Spezialhandel nach Bezugs- und Absatzgebieten und nach Warengruppenund -untergruppen. 1953-1964, Stuttgart 1954-1965.