marker-assisted selection in wheat

370Marker-assisted selection – Current status and future perspectives in crops, livestock, forestry and fishFigure 1Conceptual framework of a prospective study on genetic resources and breeding R&D in BrazilCurrent and Emerging EventsDevelopment of biotechnology, widespread granting of intellectual property, changesin the relationship between public and private science, the rise of geneticengineering, development of bio-industry, concentration in the seed market, etc.Public subsystem of geneticresources and breeding R&D(current state)Public subsystem of geneticresources and breeding R&D(future state)Private subsystem of geneticresources and breeding R&D(current state)Private subsystem of geneticresources and breeding R&D(future state)Dark arrows indicate the impact of current and emerging events on both public and private subsystems of R&Din genetic resources and breeding, at present and in the future, considering several alternative scenarios. Verticalarrows indicate the state of the relationship between the public and the private R&D subsystems as it is affectedby current and emerging events.Source: Castro et al., 2002, 2006.present performance of a research field,determining critical factors of performance(Linstone and Turoff, 1975; Castro, deCobbe and Goedert, 1995; Castro, de Limaand Freitas Filho, 1998; Castro et al. 2002,2006; Lima et al., 2000).An innovative model of a prospectivestudy was proposed and tested by Castroet al. (2002, 2006), based on the Braziliannational system of genetic resources andbreeding. The effort started with thedistinction between two component subsystems– public and private. The authorsconsidered that the two subsystems admittwo possible states or situations, currentand future, after the effect of current andemerging events (Figure 1). Prospectiveefforts based on this framework can be veryuseful to guide diagnosis of national programmes,identifying the main determinantsof current and past system performancethat can be used to guide decisions aboutthe configuration of genetic resources,breeding programmes and the associatedseed industry.This type of study can help identifychanges in the system and in the correspondingtechnology market, analysingtheir current and future impacts, determiningfuture opportunities and threatsto the strategic positioning of researchorganizations in the technology market.There is also the perspective of developingpossible alternative scenarios for therelationships between public and privateresearch, and of these with the market, toguide the strategic positioning of publicresearch. Results of this effort couldindicate new opportunities and niches forpublic breeding programmes, as well asareas of extreme value where the publicsector would have to acquire capacity inthe future. Key decisions on investmentsin new technologies and processes applied