The Impact of Direct Democracy on Society - Universität St.Gallen

– 172 –Table 5: Property Crime 1986–2001 Reduced Form(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Burglary Pickpocketing Auto <strong>The</strong>ft Robbery Fraud DefalcationSeverity 139, 140, 146, 138 -0.002 0.004 0.005(*) 0.000 0.002 -0.006*(0.94) (0.85) (1.74) (0.46) (0.73) (2.52)<strong>Direct</strong> democracy -0.158** 0.088 -0.142* -0.074 -0.204* -0.167(3.67) (1.04) (2.26) (1.21) (2.06) (1.55)Welfare transfers 0.142* 0.479** 0.176(*) 0.323** 0.141 0.034(2.15) (3.67) (1.80) (3.04) (0.93) (0.20)Income inequality 0.079 0.309(*) 0.043 0.154 -0.276 -0.212(0.93) (1.80) (0.36) (1.21) (1.40) (1.00)National income -0.114 0.116 0.249 0.479 -1.233* -0.146(0.49) (0.25) (0.70) (1.44) (2.27) (0.25)Unemployment rate 0.063* 0.022 0.013 -0.057 0.103 -0.013(1.97) (0.34) (0.30) (1.23) (1.40) (0.16)Closeness to border -0.241** 0.167 0.09 -0.161(*) -0.221 -0.456**(3.75) (1.33) (0.93) (1.79) (1.41) (2.86)Interaction b. cantons -0.006* 0.016** 0.004 0.018** 0.016* 0.024**(1.99) (2.92) (0.86) (4.46) (2.34) (3.39)Urbanization 0.004 0.015** -0.006(*) 0.015** 0.005 0.015*(1.64) (3.05) (1.68) (4.15) (0.80) (2.31)Cantonal population 0.200** 0.066 -0.136 -0.065 -0.379* -0.551**(3.21) (0.54) (1.46) (0.74) (2.54) (3.55)Residents 0 – 14 -0.078** -0.026 -0.200** 0.063 -0.222** -0.078(2.73) (0.47) (4.24) (1.55) (3.39) (1.09)Residents 15 – 24 0.048 0.256** 0.112* 0.142* -0.025 -0.089(1.23) (3.31) (2.06) (2.53) (0.27) (0.91)Residents 25 – 29 0.036 0.097 0.054 0.226** 0.247* 0.205(0.70) (0.94) (0.68) (3.03) (2.06) (1.57)Residents over 60 -0.051* 0.125** -0.092* 0.165** -0.010 -0.001(2.24) (2.77) (2.33) (5.10) (0.19) (0.01)Fiscal decentralization 0.338 -0.382 -0.333 -0.856** 0.755 0.549(1.56) (0.89) (1.03) (2.73) (1.52) (1.01)Tax competition -0.199(*) -0.565* 0.071 0.004 -1.018** -0.760**(1.71) (2.47) (0.42) (0.03) (3.82) (2.60)Federal transfers 0.045 -0.204 -0.450** -0.405** 0.413(*) 0.02(0.45) (1.04) (3.14) (2.80) (1.76) (0.08)Constitutional constraint 0.02 0.205** 0.02 0.038 0.305** 0.287**(0.61) (3.26) (0.37) (0.84) (4.10) (3.59)Conservative ideology -0.656** -0.129 -0.262 -0.049 -0.732(*) 0.232(3.50) (0.35) (0.99) (0.18) (1.70) (0.50)Size <strong>of</strong> coalition 0.069(*) -0.06 -0.096 0.015 -0.125 -0.099(1.68) (0.74) (1.64) (0.25) (1.27) (0.97)Romance canton -0.371* -0.334 -1.043** 0.014 -1.934** -0.172(2.35) (1.07) (4.68) (0.06) (5.34) (0.44)Constant 5.808** -6.225 15.559** -4.642 13.256* 10.499(*)(2.68) (1.46) (4.47) (1.51) (2.55) (1.95)Observations 416 416 416 416 416 416Centered R2 0.81 0.65 0.59 0.67 0.47 0.35Jarque-Bera χ-value 2.90 50.62*** 1424.00*** 46.71*** 31.38*** 56.78***OLS with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors for two lags. Absolute values <strong>of</strong> t-statistics are in parentheses. (*) indicates significance at the 10%, * at the 5%, and ** at the 1% level. Year fixedeffects and measures <strong>of</strong> recording behavior are included but not reported.