The Impact of Direct Democracy on Society - Universität St.Gallen

– 157 –Following the procedure <strong>of</strong> CHERRY and LIST (2002) and WEEDE (1981), the number <strong>of</strong><strong>of</strong>fenses is augmented by 1 to avoid the problem <strong>of</strong> crime rates <strong>of</strong> zero. <strong>The</strong> types <strong>of</strong> crimeincluded in the study are crime against persons, property, morality, and decency, as well aswhite collar property crimes. In order to take into account measurement errors in thedependent variable and huge differences in relative numbers, all crime rates arelogarithmized, as is common in the criminometric literature 179 . <strong>The</strong> latest theoretical andsimulation-based findings show that this transformation ensures that the estimates will bereasonably accurate and not overly biased 180 . A detailed description <strong>of</strong> the crimecategorization <strong>of</strong> felonies (as defined by the articles <strong>of</strong> the Swiss Criminal Code, StGB) isprovided in the Appendix (table A.1).Among deterrents, the severity <strong>of</strong> punishment is measured by the share <strong>of</strong> unsuspendedsentences in total sentences 181 , which is available from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office(BFS) only for several major crimes (theft, robbery, fraud, murder, bodily assault, sexualabuse, and rape). Swiss criminal law specifies minimum and/or maximum levels <strong>of</strong>punishment and allows for suspended and unsuspended sentences, hence still leaving room forthe discretion <strong>of</strong> individual judges. <strong>The</strong>re is reason to believe that the different cantons havedeveloped distinguishable cultures in the local application <strong>of</strong> the Swiss Criminal Code, so thatnot only a variation over time but also between the 26 Swiss cantons can be expected 182 . As asecond deterrent, the model uses the cantonal police force per capita, based on confidentialdata provided by the Federal Office <strong>of</strong> Police (BAP) 183 , which proxies the probability <strong>of</strong> being179 To reduce the detrimental impact <strong>of</strong> measurement errors, also the number <strong>of</strong> policemen serving as proxy forclear-up rates was logarithmized. See also footnote 180.180 Regarding underreporting and the resulting measurement error which might bias the coefficients see EHRLICH(1996) and FAJNZYLBER (2002) for a theoretical investigation. For empirical evidence on reporting behaviordepending on the victim’s characteristics and the nature <strong>of</strong> the crime, see MACDONALD (2002). PUDNEY et al.(2000) show through a Monte Carlo simulation that simple OLS estimates are not seriously biased due tomeasurement errors in the dependent variable or the clear-up rates (see also LEVITT (1998) for similarresults). In general, the smallest degree <strong>of</strong> underreporting can be expected for murder and robbery (seeFAJNZYLBER et al. 2002.) and, in the case <strong>of</strong> Switzerland, auto theft and burglary for reasons <strong>of</strong> car andhousehold insurance. High underreporting is observed for crimes with a social stigma, such as rape(MACDONALD 2002).181 Severe crimes, which are under consideration here, do not allow for fining the convicted.182 This assumption can be concluded from the fact that first, until recently, there was no mutualacknowledgment <strong>of</strong> advocate’s licenses between cantons; second, criminal procedural law consists <strong>of</strong>cantonal laws that prevent intercantonal mobility <strong>of</strong> judicial personnel (EXPERTENKOMMISSION 1997, p. 25);third, it is mostly local long-term residents who are elected as judges in cantonal and local courts; and finally,there is a continuous effort by the Swiss Supreme Court to eliminate systematic differences in the sentencingpractice <strong>of</strong> the Swiss cantonal courts (GIGER 2002, p. 257 cont., ROTH 2003, 3.3.7).183 Data were obtained with the explicit permission <strong>of</strong> all chiefs <strong>of</strong> cantonal police forces.