Litteraturstudie - Tidligfasevurdering av prosjekter - Concept - NTNU

CONCEPTFront-end Management of Major ProjectsSikring av store investeringsprosjekterKenis, Dirk; Verhaegen, Lucas, MacPolicy project: developing a group decision supportsystem based on the delphi method, Free Univ of Brussels (V.U.B.), Brussel, Belgium,Proceedings of the IFIP TC8/WG8.3 Working Conference on Decision Support in PublicAdministrationThis article gives a description of ’MacPolicy’, a Group Decision Support Systembased upon the principles of the successful human sciences research method ’PolicyDelphi’. This method facilitates consensus-seeking and exactly defines existingcontroversies in a computer conference. It is very well suited to handle policyplanning or other tasks involving different stakeholder groups or differentperspectives on the matter. Our concept has the following features: It provides astructured discussion, using an iterative consensus seeking questioning technique withanonymous information feedback. As such it can be used as a front-end for differentsingle-user Decision Support Systems. It is a database-mailing system that enablesusers to send and store questions, reports, opinions and critiques. It contains statisticaltools, mainly based on the existing package ’Judges’, to analyze collected data. -Multicriteria Decision Aid tools are incorporated. The MacPolicy project aims to raisethe quality of most group decisions. Without pretending to be an alternative for everymeeting, it is a well structured alternative for the solution of complex problems, orwhen timing or distance is problematic. (Author abstract).Kindinger, J. P, Use of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analysis Results for ProjectBudgeting and Contingency Analysis at Los Alamos National Laboratory, ProjectManagement Seminars and Symposium, PMI 1999.Probabilistic analyses of technical, schedule and cost risks are performed for majorprojects at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The results of theseanalyses are used to set objective schedule and cost targets for projects. Theexperience is that the task-level contingencies determined form risk analysis cannotbe added directly to obtain the project total contingency. This paper discusses theunderlying mathematical reasonsproducing this dilemma and the solution beingapplied at LANL for developing task-level contingency allocations for use in projectmonitoring and control.Klein, M. R and Methlie, L. B., Knowledge-based Decision Support Systems Withapplications in Business, John Wiley & Sons ISBN 0-471-95195-8, 1998.This book integrates expert system technology with decision support technology andintroduces a new conceptual framework - knowledge-based decision systems. Themethodology for developing such systems is described incorporating the process ofcognitive modeling and problem solving, problem representation and design ofsolution strategies, computer implementation and validating from a businessperspectice.Lewis, H. W., Why flip a Coin? The art and Science of Good Decisions, University ofCalifornia, John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 0-471-16597-2, USA, 1997.Using examples gleaned from everyday life, the author explains what science hasdiscovered about the rules that govern good-and-not-so-good decision making. Thebook gives insight into human psychology and behavior.Litteraturstudium innen tidligfasevurderinger av prosjekter 48