KEC INTERNATIONAL LTD. - The Smart Investor

Initiating CoverageKEC International Ltd.FinancialsY/E ‐ March FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Financial Health (Rs. Cr) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13ERevenues ‐ Net 3,908.22 4,476.74 5,570.39 6,553.08 Share Capital 49.34 51.42 51.42 51.42% Growth 14.0% 14.5% 24.4% 17.6% Reserves & Surplus 716.16 895.17 1,063.28 1,290.30EBITDA 405.86 472.95 589.00 685.63 Net Worth 767.57 946.59 1,114.70 1,341.72% change in EBIDTA 35.3% 16.5% 24.5% 16.4% Total Loans 786.74 1,432.17 1,575.20 1,653.96Interest 86.47 107.50 126.02 132.32 Deferred Tax Liab 46.11 49.69 49.69 49.69EBDT 319.39 365.45 462.99 553.31 Total Liabilities 1,600.43 2,428.45 2,739.59 3,045.37Depreciation 27.02 40.81 54.97 61.22 Net Fixed Assets 713.33 840.86 960.89 974.67Other Income ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Investments 1.87 ‐ ‐ ‐PBT 292.37 324.64 408.02 492.09 Good will ‐ 281.25 281.25 281.25Tax 103.70 111.08 144.03 173.71 Inventories 249.75 335.86 408.46 483.16PAT 188.67 205.07 263.99 318.38 Debtors 1,944.92 2,617.69 3,017.29 3,549.59Equity(in Cr.) 51.42 51.42 51.42 51.42 Cash & Bank 67.80 161.35 186.61 129.52EPS 7.34 7.98 10.27 12.38 Loans & Adv 397.26 472.35 601.40 752.62Cash EPS 8.39 9.56 12.41 14.76 Current Assets 2,659.73 3,587.25 4,213.76 4,914.88Current Liabilities 1,718.89 2,224.83 2,655.27 3,060.26Operational Ratio FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Provisions 55.61 56.08 61.03 65.16EBITDA margin (%) 10.38% 10.56% 10.57% 10.46% Current liab & Prov 1,774.50 2,280.91 2,716.30 3,125.42PAT margin (%) 4.83% 4.58% 4.74% 4.86% Working Capital 885.23 1,306.34 1,497.45 1,789.46PAT Growth (%) 63.07% 8.69% 28.73% 20.61% Total Assets 1,600.43 2,428.45 2,739.59 3,045.38Price Earnings (x) 10.90 10.03 7.79 6.46 Cash Flow (Rs. Cr) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13EBook Value (Rs.) 31.11 36.82 43.36 52.19 OperatingROE (%) 24.58% 21.66% 23.68% 23.73% EBT 273.95 316.15 408.02 492.09ROCE (%) 23.67% 17.79% 19.49% 20.50% Change in WC (229.96) (327.56) (165.85) (349.09)Interest coverage 4.38 4.02 4.24 4.72 Interest Exp 86.47 107.50 126.02 132.32Debt Equity Ratio 1.02 1.51 1.41 1.23 Dep & Other Adjustment (16.19) 40.81 54.97 61.22Price / Book Value (x) 2.57 2.17 1.85 1.53 Tax Paid (77.82) (111.08) (144.03) (173.71)EV / Sales 0.30 0.78 0.65 0.57 CF from Opeartion 36.45 25.82 279.12 162.83EV / EBIDTA 2.91 7.38 6.17 5.41 InvestmentOrderbook/ Sales 1.46 1.75 1.71 1.67 Capex (60.49) (168.34) (175.00) (75.00)Qtrly Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Other Investment 10.07 ‐ ‐ ‐Revenue 846.02 949.71 1,070.68 1,557.36 Total Investment (193.51) (182.78) (175.00) (75.00)Total Exp. 761.63 863.21 946.38 1,395.35 FinancingEBIDTA 84.39 86.50 124.30 162.01 Dividend Paid (28.52) (36.96) (36.96) (36.96)EBIDTA Margin (%) 9.97% 9.11% 11.61% 10.40% Premium / Reserve ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐Depreciation 8.63 8.54 11.32 11.87 Borrowing ( Net) 55.10 380.72 84.12 24.36Interest 26.43 19.86 28.68 32.01 Other Income ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐Other Income 0.08 0.56 0.32 1.6 Interest (94.40) (107.50) (126.02) (132.32)EBT 49.41 58.66 84.62 119.73 Total Financing (67.83) 236.26 (78.86) (144.92)Tax 23.04 18.83 26.65 41.12 Net Chg. in Cash (81.80) 93.74 25.26 (57.09)PAT 26.37 39.83 57.97 78.61 Cash at beginning 136.47 67.61 161.35 186.61EPS 1.03 1.22 2.25 3.06 Cash at end 67.61 161.35 186.61 129.52