Evaluation of WHEATPEST, a model predicting wheat yield losses ...
Evaluation of WHEATPEST, a model predicting wheat yield losses ...
Evaluation of WHEATPEST, a model predicting wheat yield losses ...
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FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYFOODQUALITYANDSAFETY<strong>Evaluation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>WHEATPEST</strong>, a <strong>model</strong><strong>predicting</strong> <strong>wheat</strong> <strong>yield</strong> <strong>losses</strong> caused by aninjury pr<strong>of</strong>ile in a given productionsituationSoudais J, Bonneme M-H,Buis S, Czembor JH,Debaeke P, Domeradzka O, JørgensenLN, MilleB, Raynal H, Savary S, Willocquet L,Aubertot J.-NUMR AGIR, Toulouse, France© ENDURE, February 2007
FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY© ENDURE, February 2007
Simplified flow chart <strong>of</strong> a <strong>model</strong> linkingcropping practices to pest dynamicsand cropFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYCrop sequenceSoil tillageSowing date Sowing rate N managementPhotosynthesisPesticideRoot Stem Leaf Harvested organDisease 1FOODQUALITYANDSAFETYDisease 2 Disease 3 Disease 4 Disease 5© ENDURE, February 2007
Simplified flow chart <strong>of</strong> a <strong>model</strong> linkingcropping practices to pest dynamicsand cropFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYCrop sequenceSoil tillageSowing date Sowing rate N managementPhotosynthesisPesticideRoot Stem Leaf Harvested organDisease 1FOODQUALITYANDSAFETYDisease 2 Disease 3 Disease 4 Disease 5Weed 1 Weed 2 Weed 3 Weed 4 Weed 5Insect 1 Insect 2 Insect 3 Insect 4 Insect 5© ENDURE, February 2007
Production situation and injurypr<strong>of</strong>ile relationshipsFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYStrong link shown formultiplepathosystems <strong>of</strong>several cropsAttainable<strong>yield</strong>DamageMechanismActual<strong>yield</strong>Can be used as aframework to assessor <strong>model</strong> <strong>yield</strong> <strong>losses</strong>caused by multiplepestsProductionSituationInjuryPr<strong>of</strong>ile© ENDURE, February 2007
Simplified flow chart<strong>of</strong> f <strong>WHEATPEST</strong>FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYSUMTRADPLAIRUEPDVSGrowth rate(RG)Pool <strong>of</strong> biomassPCPLCPSCPECPRLeafmassStemmassEarmassRootmassRRSENRDEVGrainmass© ENDURE, February 2007
Output examples•Attainable yied•Actual <strong>yield</strong>•Relative <strong>yield</strong> <strong>losses</strong> causedby individual pests•Relative <strong>yield</strong> loss caused bythe injury pr<strong>of</strong>ileFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYConventionalIntegratedOrganic© ENDURE, February 2007
<strong>Evaluation</strong> <strong>of</strong> the predictivequality <strong>of</strong> <strong>WHEATPEST</strong>Simulated <strong>yield</strong> (g.m -2 )12001000800600400200RMSEP = 144 g m -2Efficiency = -0.03BIAS = 52 g m -2FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY00 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Wide range <strong>of</strong> productionsituations : climate,cultivars, other croppingpractices (intensive,integrated, organicsystems)1993 1994 19951993 2005 20062007 2008Observed <strong>yield</strong> (g.m -2 )2008 2009© ENDURE, February 2007
CONCLUSIONFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY<strong>WHEATPEST</strong> appears to be a reasonable <strong>model</strong> to represent <strong>yield</strong><strong>losses</strong> on <strong>wheat</strong> for a wide range <strong>of</strong> production situationsA sensitivity analysis (Morris method, confirmed by a Sobolanalysis) showed that <strong>wheat</strong> growth parameters not only influencesimulated attainable <strong>yield</strong>s, but also the simulated relative <strong>yield</strong><strong>losses</strong>. In addition, 3 parameters related to damage functions wereidentified as the most influential to <strong>WHEATPEST</strong> outputs.This information will help re-estimate the value <strong>of</strong> parameters thathad been directly taken from the literature.© ENDURE, February 2007
CONCLUSIONFOOD QUALITY AND SAFETYEstimation <strong>of</strong> the <strong>yield</strong> <strong>losses</strong> caused by a range <strong>of</strong> pests or onepest onlyHierarchy <strong>of</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> pests for a given Injury Pr<strong>of</strong>ile (IP) *Production Situation (PS) combinationGuide research priorities for <strong>wheat</strong> pest management inEuropeBaseline to drive surveys on <strong>wheat</strong> health and management inEuropeIdentify the main IP*PS in EuropeBuild a map <strong>of</strong> a range <strong>of</strong> <strong>yield</strong> <strong>losses</strong> in Europe in interactionwith their associated IP*PSAn on-line version <strong>of</strong> <strong>WHEATPEST</strong> will soon be available within theVirtual Laboratory <strong>of</strong> the ENDURE network© ENDURE, February 2007
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