Service Contract No 2007 / 147-446 Strategic ... - Swaziland

5.6.3 Expected impacts with implementation of theNASThe implementation of the NAS is triggering two factors that will have opposite effects on theproduction of POPs from sugar cane burning. On the one hand the expansion of lands undersugar cane, especially under the LUSIP and KDDP schemes, will result in an increase incane burning, and thus an increase in the generation of POPs. On the other hand, the movetowards higher co-generation of electricity using cane tops and trash for self-consumption(RSSC and Ubombo Sugar) and for selling electricity to the national power grid under PowerPurchasing Agreements (PPA) (Ubombo Sugar) will result in a decrease of cane burning atthe mill estates.5.6.3.1 Expected increase in sugar cane burningLUSIP was expected to put a total of 11,500 ha under irrigation (6,500 ha in phase 1 and5,000 ha in phase 2). Most of these lands will be dedicated to sugar cane. To date only 1,500ha have been developed and a total of 3,500 ha are expected by 2012. Thus it does notseem that the full 11,500 ha will be developed.On the other hand, KDDP is expected to develop 7,400 ha of irrigated farms, 5,500 ha ofwhich for sugar cane. To date 3,700 ha have been planted to sugar cane.It is estimated that 100% of the new lands will be under BCH, as at the moment there are noarrangements foreseen for the sugar mills to buy the tops and trash from the farmers.Estimating an additional 17,000 ha of sugar cane and the factor of 17.5 tonnes of biomassper ha, this gives us an additional 297,500 t of biomass burned. This corresponds to anadditional 3.124 gTEQ/a (0.149 gTEQ/a of releases into the air and 2.975 gTEQ/a ofreleases onto land). Other factors remaining unaltered, new sugar cane lands under LUSIPand KDDP will increase the emission of POPs 33.7%, resulting in an increase in thecontribution of cane burning to total emission of POPs from 7.9% to 10.6%.On the other hand, if we consider a more realistic increase of land under sugar cane,considering 3,500 ha in LUSIP (rather than the originally planned 11,500 ha), adding KDDPthe total additional land under BCH would be 10,900 ha. This corresponds to an additional190,750 t of biomass burned, producing an additional 2.003 gTEQ/a (0.095 gTEQ/a ofreleases into the air and 1.908 gTEQ/a of releases onto land). The emission of POPs fromcane burning would increase 21.6%, resulting in an increase in the contribution of caneburning to total emission of POPs from 7.9% to 9.5%.The unintended generation of POPs due to the increased area of sugar cane under BCHwould thus increase in the order of 22%-34% depending on the scenario and other factorsremaining the same.5.6.3.2 Expected decrease in sugar cane burningThe NAS promotes increasing energy efficiency by increasing co-generation of electricityusing cane tops and trash. This additional energy may be used to reduce dependency of thesugar mills on the power grid, but surplus electricity may also be sold to the national powergrid acting as an Independent Power Producer (IPP) and through a PPA. Ubombo Sugar(Illovo) is working on the IPP option, whereas RSSC has plans to increase their cogenerationcapacity for their own consumption.Ubombo Sugar has started to shift into GCH in 38% of their estate lands, which correspondsroughly to 3,105 ha. As far as RSSC is concerned, trials on GCH have taken place since2008 (1000 ha in 2008, 70% choppers and 30% manual cutting; 700 ha in 2009 and about2000 ha foreseen for 2010, all manual cutting).RDMU (Strategic Environmental Assessment of the National Adaptation Strategy) - Page 90