TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army

TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01overall health of the population is increasing. However, there is a decrease in the health andfitness in some segments of our population. This stems principally from two phenomena. Oneassociated with our youth—a propensity to indulge in an excess of comfort and convenience, andone with our aged—an increasing lifespan. A fast food diet and a tendency toward passiveentertainment (video and electronic games) contribute to climbing obesity rates for 10-17 yearolds throughout the Nation, and estimates indicate that only 30 percent of U.S. adults exercise. 53As they age these adults are increasingly afflicted with heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratorydisease, and injury. Sophisticated and expensive medical capabilities have increased ourlifespan, but have been unable to eliminate the infirmity that comes with advanced age. Whilepeople are living longer, there is an accompanying increase in chronic conditions and enduringpain associated with age. Treating this population consumes 16 percent of today’s grossdomestic product and this demand will continue increasing to 2015 and beyond. 54Science and Technology (S&T)Complacent with its success in the cold war and comfortable with its reputation as theworld’s sole superpower at the end of the last century, the U.S. was ready to sit back and enjoythe fruits of its success. Along with the peace dividend and a dramatic drawdown of militaryforces came a loss of a sense of urgency to maintain a dominant S&T posture. When the world’seconomies began to experience the benefits of globalization and the world marketplace, emergingcompetitors suddenly had the means to invest in their own S&T research. Today, 70 percent ofS&T research occurs outside of the U.S., and the U.S. share continues to diminish. While theU.S. remains a leader in innovation and advanced technology, it can no longer claim dominance.U.S. S&T communities must now compete for investment and profit with growing economiesaround the world such as those of China, India, and South Korea. While many U.S. institutions,commercial, educational, and governmental, remain at the leading edge of S&T developments,we cannot depend on quality indefinitely trumping quantity. Furthermore, as much of theresearch and development of advanced technologies emerges from commercial entities, the U.S.ability to protect that technology in the interest of national security suffers from a determinationand a requirement of those entities to derive a profit from their investment. This results in aproliferation of advanced technologies that further erodes the U.S. ability to maintain a globaltechnological dominance into 2015-2024.2-5. ConclusionOur understanding of the future OE is never static or complete. The myriad interactionsoccurring daily guarantee that next week’s interpretation of the future will differ from today’sinterpretation. Any examination of the future OE is of necessity an ongoing effort thatcontinuously generates changes to the product.The global and domestic trends discussed above shape the future domestic environment. Asthese trends interact, they tend to amplify both the positive and the negative effects. Over time,this tends to create and increase a disparity of wealth, education, health, and general well-being.In many ways, this disparity is self-perpetuating and it breeds resentment between the extremes.Trends indicate that the demand for services (population growth) will outpace the nation’s ability44