TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01overall health of the population is increasing. However, there is a decrease in the health andfitness in some segments of our population. This stems principally from two phenomena. Oneassociated with our youth—a propensity to indulge in an excess of comfort and convenience, andone with our aged—an increasing lifespan. A fast food diet and a tendency toward passiveentertainment (video and electronic games) contribute to climbing obesity rates for 10-17 yearolds throughout the Nation, and estimates indicate that only 30 percent of U.S. adults exercise. 53As they age these adults are increasingly afflicted with heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratorydisease, and injury. Sophisticated and expensive medical capabilities have increased ourlifespan, but have been unable to eliminate the infirmity that comes with advanced age. Whilepeople are living longer, there is an accompanying increase in chronic conditions and enduringpain associated with age. Treating this population consumes 16 percent of today’s grossdomestic product and this demand will continue increasing to 2015 and beyond. 54Science and Technology (S&T)Complacent with its success in the cold war and comfortable with its reputation as theworld’s sole superpower at the end of the last century, the U.S. was ready to sit back and enjoythe fruits of its success. Along with the peace dividend and a dramatic drawdown of militaryforces came a loss of a sense of urgency to maintain a dominant S&T posture. When the world’seconomies began to experience the benefits of globalization and the world marketplace, emergingcompetitors suddenly had the means to invest in their own S&T research. Today, 70 percent ofS&T research occurs outside of the U.S., and the U.S. share continues to diminish. While theU.S. remains a leader in innovation and advanced technology, it can no longer claim dominance.U.S. S&T communities must now compete for investment and profit with growing economiesaround the world such as those of China, India, and South Korea. While many U.S. institutions,commercial, educational, and governmental, remain at the leading edge of S&T developments,we cannot depend on quality indefinitely trumping quantity. Furthermore, as much of theresearch and development of advanced technologies emerges from commercial entities, the U.S.ability to protect that technology in the interest of national security suffers from a determinationand a requirement of those entities to derive a profit from their investment. This results in aproliferation of advanced technologies that further erodes the U.S. ability to maintain a globaltechnological dominance into 2015-2024.2-5. ConclusionOur understanding of the future OE is never static or complete. The myriad interactionsoccurring daily guarantee that next week’s interpretation of the future will differ from today’sinterpretation. Any examination of the future OE is of necessity an ongoing effort thatcontinuously generates changes to the product.The global and domestic trends discussed above shape the future domestic environment. Asthese trends interact, they tend to amplify both the positive and the negative effects. Over time,this tends to create and increase a disparity of wealth, education, health, and general well-being.In many ways, this disparity is self-perpetuating and it breeds resentment between the extremes.Trends indicate that the demand for services (population growth) will outpace the nation’s ability44
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01to supply those services (economic growth.). There will be a large segment of our populationthat is undereducated, unemployed, and in poor health.Implications of the OESome suggest that to study human history is to study the nature of conflict. A never-endingstruggle for wealth, knowledge, and power, motivated by ideology, religion, ethnicity, andvirtually any other differences among peoples that can motivate a struggle characterizes the storyof civilization. The OE sets the conditions that may lead to conflict. An ever-shrinking pool ofvital resources, (food, water, energy), combines with the growing global population to stress thecapacity of the world to provide an acceptable quality of life for all. At the same time, theinformation age has dramatically expanded people’s access to knowledge and information.These phenomena—shrinking resources, growing populations, ubiquitous access to real timeinformation—interact and merge to create a collective sense of global relative depravation.Global relative depravation (resentment stemming from the realization that others in theworld enjoy a higher quality of life) is an all-too-human reaction to the growing gap betweenhaves and have-nots. In the not too distant past, people living in near poverty under miserableconditions assumed their experience was the norm. The elites, fearing class envy, did nothing todispel this perception. In some cases, the former Soviet Union for one, the ruling authoritiesmade a point of convincing its people that they were better off than the rest of the world bydelivering their messages while controlling access to external information sources. Today, andincreasingly so in the future, individuals, cultures, and societies recognize their plight and seek toimprove their situation.Time is in itself a constant, but its relation to the evolving OE and the impact it has on thehuman dimension in that environment is in constant flux. Globalization and informationtechnologies have enabled near-instantaneous flow of information and compressed the timeallowed for planning, decisionmaking, and the execution of operations. The Army must developprocesses and capabilities that enable military decisionmaking to meet the challenges of the realtime battlefield. If not managed properly, adversaries can manipulate this frenetic pace ofoperations forced upon the Army to support their operations and strategy. The compression oftime feeds stress and contributes to strategic exhaustion. This exposes the Soldier, the Army, andthe American people to a constant stream of near real time information detailing events in theOE. Over time, this begins to erode public support for the Army’s efforts. The adversary, whothinks in terms of decades or more, is less vulnerable to the pressure of time. His strategy maywell rely on protraction—that is, the deliberate avoidance of decisive events while prolonging theconflict. The U.S. must consider and adopt a strategy and implement human dimension programsand processes that support an Army committed to persistent conflict over an extended time.The physical environment encompasses a fixed amount of resources. The introduction of thehuman elements into that environment also introduces a competition for those resources. In aninverse relationship, available resources are shrinking as the demand for them is growing. Whenthose resources remain relatively plentiful, that competition can be resolved with cooperation.As those resources become more constrained cooperation will evolve into competition. Actual orperceived shortages increase the potential for open conflict.45
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<strong>TRADOC</strong> <strong>Pam</strong> <strong>525</strong>-3-7-<strong>01</strong>overall health of the population is increasing. However, there is a decrease in the health andfitness in some segments of our population. This stems principally from two phenomena. Oneassociated with our youth—a propensity to indulge in an excess of comfort and convenience, andone with our aged—an increasing lifespan. A fast food diet and a tendency toward passiveentertainment (video and electronic games) contribute to climbing obesity rates for 10-17 yearolds throughout the Nation, and estimates indicate that only 30 percent of U.S. adults exercise. 53As they age these adults are increasingly afflicted with heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratorydisease, and injury. Sophisticated and expensive medical capabilities have increased ourlifespan, but have been unable to eliminate the infirmity that comes with advanced age. Whilepeople are living longer, there is an accompanying increase in chronic conditions and enduringpain associated with age. Treating this population consumes 16 percent of today’s grossdomestic product and this demand will continue increasing to 2<strong>01</strong>5 and beyond. 54Science and Technology (S&T)Complacent with its success in the cold war and comfortable with its reputation as theworld’s sole superpower at the end of the last century, the U.S. was ready to sit back and enjoythe fruits of its success. Along with the peace dividend and a dramatic drawdown of militaryforces came a loss of a sense of urgency to maintain a dominant S&T posture. When the world’seconomies began to experience the benefits of globalization and the world marketplace, emergingcompetitors suddenly had the means to invest in their own S&T research. Today, 70 percent ofS&T research occurs outside of the U.S., and the U.S. share continues to diminish. While theU.S. remains a leader in innovation and advanced technology, it can no longer claim dominance.U.S. S&T communities must now compete for investment and profit with growing economiesaround the world such as those of China, India, and South Korea. While many U.S. institutions,commercial, educational, and governmental, remain at the leading edge of S&T developments,we cannot depend on quality indefinitely trumping quantity. Furthermore, as much of theresearch and development of advanced technologies emerges from commercial entities, the U.S.ability to protect that technology in the interest of national security suffers from a determinationand a requirement of those entities to derive a profit from their investment. This results in aproliferation of advanced technologies that further erodes the U.S. ability to maintain a globaltechnological dominance into 2<strong>01</strong>5-2024.2-5. ConclusionOur understanding of the future OE is never static or complete. The myriad interactionsoccurring daily guarantee that next week’s interpretation of the future will differ from today’sinterpretation. Any examination of the future OE is of necessity an ongoing effort thatcontinuously generates changes to the product.The global and domestic trends discussed above shape the future domestic environment. Asthese trends interact, they tend to amplify both the positive and the negative effects. Over time,this tends to create and increase a disparity of wealth, education, health, and general well-being.In many ways, this disparity is self-perpetuating and it breeds resentment between the extremes.Trends indicate that the demand for services (population growth) will outpace the nation’s ability44