TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01Combined with demographic trends, these situations may accentuate instability and unrest inthose areas.Globalization has other adverse effects as well. As Thomas Friedman pointed out, itdiminishes the ability of states to control what takes place within their territory. People oftenblame states for things that they cannot change, thus increasing the potential for conflict and evenviolence. Second, globalization increases security vulnerability by facilitating the flow oftechnology, money and information to violent groups, and by creating additional points ofvulnerability that states must try to protect.Oil and EnergyOil and natural gas will continue to provide a significant fraction of the world’s energy usage.Unfortunately, both are finite resources, increasingly difficult and expensive to extract andtransport. As demand continues to rise and growth of production declines, there will beinevitable competition for access to these resources. Oil in particular is anindispensable everyday necessity, more so in developed countries.Concerns over access to energy and the potential of conflict arising fromthe competition for energy resources will generate change in thecomponents of the human dimension. Continued access to energy is a vitalinterest for an individual’s physical well-being. The quest for energy hasstimulated a cognitive effort to develop alternative energy sources andgreater efficiency in using current sources. As availability of energy andother resources continues to decline, competition will increase. Thepotential for this competition to escalate to conflict raises moral and ethicalquestions that must be reconciled with the physical requirements and thecapabilities of the cognitive component.The current trends regarding oil production and consumption expose a potential crisis ofsupply and demand. Experts project a decline in oil production by 2030 in at least 33 of 48 oilproducingcountries 9 while in the same timeframe, worldwide oil consumption will rise by 50 to60 percent. 10 Emerging economic giants China and India will increase their consumption byfactors of two and three respectively. As more nations and a greater percentage of the world’spopulation rely on oil to maintain and improve their standard of living, the potential for conflictincreases.At the same time, the looming energy crisis invigorates areas of research and developmentthat have lain dormant or been neglected for the last few decades. Alternative energy sources thatcould not compete with the relatively cheap oil of the past will become economically viable in afuture of rapidly rising oil prices. Potential alternative energy sources include: Nuclear fusion: could supply vast quantities of energy, with little pollution;commercial applications expected by 2050. 1132
TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 Hydrogen: many potential transportation applications. Efforts in Europe to preparemarket for hydrogen as a viable, clean energy carrier and reduce Europe’s dependenceon oil. 12 Biofuels: available in small quantity, and increasing slowly, 1 billion gallons ofbiodiesel in U.S. by 2010, 7.5 billion gallons of bioethanol in U.S. by 2012. 13 Solar: many applications in use; solar power can be price competitive by 2015. 14 Wind: many applications in use; five percent of available wind energy would meetglobal energy needs. 15 Other options for alternate energy sources include photovoltaics, a form of solarenergy using semiconductor material to produce energy, and geothermal. 16Though research and development in these alternative energy sources is increasing, economicpayoff and environmental impact are still considerations that limit these efforts. While it isdifficult to predict beyond the 2020 timeframe, research indicates that alternative energy sourceswill provide only 8 percent of the total energy requirement in 2020. 17 Current investment inprograms to reduce demand and/or increase supply of total energy requirements is inadequate tohave a significant impact. In a worst-case scenario, future competition for oil among first worldnations may lead to direct military confrontation.Demographic TrendsIn common with other trends, interaction with each otherand with the external environment influence demographictrends. An inescapable fact of the shifting nature ofdemographics is a constant and ever increasing rate ofpopulation growth. A growing population exacerbates thenegative aspects of globalization, intensifies the competition forscarce resources, and increases the pressure on governingentities to provide adequate governance. Current projectionsplace the global population in 2035—currently 6.5 billion—at8.5 billion. 18 That figure in itself challenges the world’s abilityto achieve and maintain an equitable and satisfactory standard ofliving for everyone. A closer look at the nature of this population growth and the additionaltrends such growth drives reveals additional challenges to stability in the world.The character of the world’s developed nations is changing. Declining birth rates andincreasing longevity contribute to an aging population in Europe, Japan, Russia, and elsewhere.In Europe, immigration swells the ranks of minorities, whose greater birth rate threatens nativemajorities in several European Union nations. Japan and Russia have no significant immigrationand their populations are actually declining. Demographic patterns in developed nationschallenge their continued stability and economic success. Much of the immigration in these areasis illegal. Illegal immigration exceeds 2.5 million persons per year in the developed world. Thiscan affect how America defines its interests and values in dealing with other nations.It is an unfortunate fact that 98 percent of the world’s population growth is in the lessdeveloped regions of the world—those same areas left behind as globalization drives a booming33
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<strong>TRADOC</strong> <strong>Pam</strong> <strong>525</strong>-3-7-<strong>01</strong> Hydrogen: many potential transportation applications. Efforts in Europe to preparemarket for hydrogen as a viable, clean energy carrier and reduce Europe’s dependenceon oil. 12 Biofuels: available in small quantity, and increasing slowly, 1 billion gallons ofbiodiesel in U.S. by 2<strong>01</strong>0, 7.5 billion gallons of bioethanol in U.S. by 2<strong>01</strong>2. 13 Solar: many applications in use; solar power can be price competitive by 2<strong>01</strong>5. 14 Wind: many applications in use; five percent of available wind energy would meetglobal energy needs. 15 Other options for alternate energy sources include photovoltaics, a form of solarenergy using semiconductor material to produce energy, and geothermal. 16Though research and development in these alternative energy sources is increasing, economicpayoff and environmental impact are still considerations that limit these efforts. While it isdifficult to predict beyond the 2020 timeframe, research indicates that alternative energy sourceswill provide only 8 percent of the total energy requirement in 2020. 17 Current investment inprograms to reduce demand and/or increase supply of total energy requirements is inadequate tohave a significant impact. In a worst-case scenario, future competition for oil among first worldnations may lead to direct military confrontation.Demographic TrendsIn common with other trends, interaction with each otherand with the external environment influence demographictrends. An inescapable fact of the shifting nature ofdemographics is a constant and ever increasing rate ofpopulation growth. A growing population exacerbates thenegative aspects of globalization, intensifies the competition forscarce resources, and increases the pressure on governingentities to provide adequate governance. Current projectionsplace the global population in 2035—currently 6.5 billion—at8.5 billion. 18 That figure in itself challenges the world’s abilityto achieve and maintain an equitable and satisfactory standard ofliving for everyone. A closer look at the nature of this population growth and the additionaltrends such growth drives reveals additional challenges to stability in the world.The character of the world’s developed nations is changing. Declining birth rates andincreasing longevity contribute to an aging population in Europe, Japan, Russia, and elsewhere.In Europe, immigration swells the ranks of minorities, whose greater birth rate threatens nativemajorities in several European Union nations. Japan and Russia have no significant immigrationand their populations are actually declining. Demographic patterns in developed nationschallenge their continued stability and economic success. Much of the immigration in these areasis illegal. Illegal immigration exceeds 2.5 million persons per year in the developed world. Thiscan affect how America defines its interests and values in dealing with other nations.It is an unfortunate fact that 98 percent of the world’s population growth is in the lessdeveloped regions of the world—those same areas left behind as globalization drives a booming33