TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army

TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01Combined with demographic trends, these situations may accentuate instability and unrest inthose areas.Globalization has other adverse effects as well. As Thomas Friedman pointed out, itdiminishes the ability of states to control what takes place within their territory. People oftenblame states for things that they cannot change, thus increasing the potential for conflict and evenviolence. Second, globalization increases security vulnerability by facilitating the flow oftechnology, money and information to violent groups, and by creating additional points ofvulnerability that states must try to protect.Oil and EnergyOil and natural gas will continue to provide a significant fraction of the world’s energy usage.Unfortunately, both are finite resources, increasingly difficult and expensive to extract andtransport. As demand continues to rise and growth of production declines, there will beinevitable competition for access to these resources. Oil in particular is anindispensable everyday necessity, more so in developed countries.Concerns over access to energy and the potential of conflict arising fromthe competition for energy resources will generate change in thecomponents of the human dimension. Continued access to energy is a vitalinterest for an individual’s physical well-being. The quest for energy hasstimulated a cognitive effort to develop alternative energy sources andgreater efficiency in using current sources. As availability of energy andother resources continues to decline, competition will increase. Thepotential for this competition to escalate to conflict raises moral and ethicalquestions that must be reconciled with the physical requirements and thecapabilities of the cognitive component.The current trends regarding oil production and consumption expose a potential crisis ofsupply and demand. Experts project a decline in oil production by 2030 in at least 33 of 48 oilproducingcountries 9 while in the same timeframe, worldwide oil consumption will rise by 50 to60 percent. 10 Emerging economic giants China and India will increase their consumption byfactors of two and three respectively. As more nations and a greater percentage of the world’spopulation rely on oil to maintain and improve their standard of living, the potential for conflictincreases.At the same time, the looming energy crisis invigorates areas of research and developmentthat have lain dormant or been neglected for the last few decades. Alternative energy sources thatcould not compete with the relatively cheap oil of the past will become economically viable in afuture of rapidly rising oil prices. Potential alternative energy sources include: Nuclear fusion: could supply vast quantities of energy, with little pollution;commercial applications expected by 2050. 1132