TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army
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TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army

TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01 - TRADOC - U.S. Army

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13.07.2015 Views

TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01Understanding of the OE is critical to our ability toengage in and win any conflict. To that end, the JOEprovides a framework for considering the future anddetermining the impact of the OE on joint forceoperations. The JOE anticipates a range of potentialfuture OEs. It discusses critical variables, trends that willinfluence those variables and the range of possibleconditions shaped by those trends. Finally, the JOEconsiders the implications of these alternative futures onthe way we will train, equip, and employ the future jointforce. As the military seeks to both anticipate and shapethe future, the JOE forms the basis for that debate andargument essential to innovative and creative thinking.The JOE establishes a baseline for understanding the enormous complexities the futureModular Force will face while planning and conducting operations. It examines future threatcapabilities and identifies environmental influences on modern conflict. While not intended to bethe definitive forecast of major global tensions during the next 20-25 years, the JOE seeks toprofile many of the dominant trends shaping the future environment and outline theirconsequences for military operations. Among these trends, the social and cultural aspects of thehuman dimension dominate the OE.2-3. International TrendsToday, and conceivably for the first half of this century, the U.S. faces several challenging,dangerous, and potentiallyinescapable geo-strategic trends. A few words on ‘persistent conflict’ – Believe weThese trends include social and collectively face a period of protracted confrontationcultural factors; the dynamics of among state, non-state, and individual actors fueled bygeopolitics and governance; the expanding Islamic extremism, competition for energy,globalization of economics and globalization outcomes, climate and demographicresources; the revolution in science, changes, and the increased use of violence to achievetechnology, and engineering; and, political and ideological ends.global climate change.GEN CaseyRemarks to the National Press Club, Sept 07In September 2007, the Chief ofStaff of the Army highlighted six issues of primary concern: climate change, globalization,shifting demographics, failed and failing states, competition for energy, and nuclear proliferation.As these trends develop and interact, they will shape the future OE in which our future ModularForces will operate over the next several years of persistent conflict.GlobalizationGlobalization will continue to increase as a future trend. Global interconnectedness willchange relationships at fundamental levels and be reflected in and made possible by expandedflows of information, technology, capital, goods and services, and people throughout the world.30

TRADOC Pam 525-3-7-01While globalization is not a new phenomenon, the rapidly accelerated blending of business,technology, and culture coupled with near instant media coverage offers both opportunities andthreats for the future. Globalization enables and substantially shapes other major trends in theOE. Globalization can manifest itself in many ways, but primary ways include interdependenteconomies, the empowerment of non-state actors, porous international boundaries, and thedeclining ability of the nation-state to control fully its own territory and economy, and to providesecurity and other services. As globalization shrinks the world and forces the interaction ofdiffering societies and cultures on an unprecedented scale, it also drives changes in all three ofthe components of the human dimension. The exchange of information and the ability to travelquickly and inexpensively have made the interaction of differing cultures commonplace. Peoplemust adapt mentally and physically to a wide range of environments. While retaining allegianceto a nation, tribe, ethnicity, religion, or similar group, people are increasingly examining theirrole as a citizen of the world. They receive exposure to different societies and cultures whosemoral basis may differ from their own. People must cognitively understand these differences andadapt their behavior to compensate. Characteristics of the human dimension are the driving forcebehind globalization. In turn, globalization influences the components of the human dimension.Growth of the global marketplace and the increasing volume of international trade andcommerce characterize the economic aspects of globalization. Continuing internationalization ofmarkets will integrate geographically dispersed sets of customers and suppliers, creatingincreasingly interdependent economies. This exposes local markets to opportunities and risks asthe global economy fluctuates. There will be winners and losers in a global economy led bymarket forces, especially in the field of labor, which will be subject to particularly ruthless lawsof supply and demand. As international economic ties broaden and strengthen, the influence ofindividual nation states may decline. This decline in nation-state influence, coupled with the riseof economic influence, complicates statecraft and security. Economic interdependence will fostera corresponding political interdependence, strengthening regional and international organizations.The explosive growth of information technologies enables globalization. The proliferation oftechnologies has effectively leveled the playing field. Ubiquitous and cheap access to the WorldWide Web and telecommunications has made knowledge available to individuals andcommunities sometimes quicker than it is by governments. The rapid access to and exchange ofinformation has created communities of interest brought together for a mutual benefit. In somerespects, these communities might become more significant than nation states. Unfortunately,there is no guarantee that these communities will be benign to U.S. interests. Empowered nonstateactors who want to harm global economy will have many options available.While globalization can be beneficial, particularly economically, there is a potentialdownside. Globalization will in some areas increase the gap between the world’s “haves” and“have nots.” Ready access to information will increase the awareness of those left behind in theclimb toward global prosperity, in essence, creating a condition of global relative deprivation. Inaddition to this awareness of economic disparity, globalization will increase the interactionamong disparate cultures. The ubiquitous nature of U.S. and Western television and films servesto diffuse western culture throughout the world. In many cases, this creates a negative reactionfrom those objecting to the western influence and defending the purity of their own culture.31

<strong>TRADOC</strong> <strong>Pam</strong> <strong>525</strong>-3-7-<strong>01</strong>Understanding of the OE is critical to our ability toengage in and win any conflict. To that end, the JOEprovides a framework for considering the future anddetermining the impact of the OE on joint forceoperations. The JOE anticipates a range of potentialfuture OEs. It discusses critical variables, trends that willinfluence those variables and the range of possibleconditions shaped by those trends. Finally, the JOEconsiders the implications of these alternative futures onthe way we will train, equip, and employ the future jointforce. As the military seeks to both anticipate and shapethe future, the JOE forms the basis for that debate andargument essential to innovative and creative thinking.The JOE establishes a baseline for understanding the enormous complexities the futureModular Force will face while planning and conducting operations. It examines future threatcapabilities and identifies environmental influences on modern conflict. While not intended to bethe definitive forecast of major global tensions during the next 20-25 years, the JOE seeks toprofile many of the dominant trends shaping the future environment and outline theirconsequences for military operations. Among these trends, the social and cultural aspects of thehuman dimension dominate the OE.2-3. International TrendsToday, and conceivably for the first half of this century, the U.S. faces several challenging,dangerous, and potentiallyinescapable geo-strategic trends. A few words on ‘persistent conflict’ – Believe weThese trends include social and collectively face a period of protracted confrontationcultural factors; the dynamics of among state, non-state, and individual actors fueled bygeopolitics and governance; the expanding Islamic extremism, competition for energy,globalization of economics and globalization outcomes, climate and demographicresources; the revolution in science, changes, and the increased use of violence to achievetechnology, and engineering; and, political and ideological ends.global climate change.GEN CaseyRemarks to the National Press Club, Sept 07In September 2007, the Chief ofStaff of the <strong>Army</strong> highlighted six issues of primary concern: climate change, globalization,shifting demographics, failed and failing states, competition for energy, and nuclear proliferation.As these trends develop and interact, they will shape the future OE in which our future ModularForces will operate over the next several years of persistent conflict.GlobalizationGlobalization will continue to increase as a future trend. Global interconnectedness willchange relationships at fundamental levels and be reflected in and made possible by expandedflows of information, technology, capital, goods and services, and people throughout the world.30

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