Clock - Uranium Supply Crunch and Critical ... - Andrew Johns

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Canada Research | Page 84 of 87UraniumSecurity Price (C$)Valuation Methodology: We value Ur-Energy Inc. on a comparative basis by applying a historic P/NAV to our companyNAVPS estimate.$7.00$6.00$5.00$4.00$3.00$2.00$1.00Jul-27-09Aug-21-09MO2 C$4.30Sep-18-09MO2 C$4.00MP3 C$3.70Oct-16-09Nov-13-09Dec-11-09Jan-08-10Feb-05-10UraniumOne Inc. (UUU) 3 yr. Stock PerformanceMO2 C$3.70Mar-05-10Apr-02-10MO2 C$3.50Apr-30-10May-28-10Jun-25-10MO2 C$3.90MP3 C$4.20Jul-23-10Aug-20-10Sep-17-10Oct-15-10Price Rating Change Target Price ChangeCoverage Suspended Target Price and Rating Change Split AdjustmentNov-12-10MO2 C$5.70MP3 C$4.70MP3 C$6.00Dec-10-10MP3 C$5.70Jan-05-11MP3 C$6.40Feb-01-11MO2 C$5.60MO2 C$5.70Feb-26-11Mar-23-11Date: July 23 2012MO2 C$5.30Apr-19-11May-14-11Jun-11-11MO2 C$5.20Jul-09-11Aug-05-11Aug-31-11MO2 C$4.60Sep-28-11MO2 C$4.30Oct-26-11Nov-17-11UR URAnalyst Recommendations & 12 Month Price ObjectiveSB1: Strong Buy MO2: OutperformMP3: Market Perform MU4: UnderperformNR : Not Rated R: RestrictedDec-15-11Jan-12-12Feb-09-12Mar-09-12Apr-06-12May-05-12Jun-02-12Jun-29-12UpdateDateClosingPriceTargetPriceRatingDec-08-11 2.52 UR URNov-10-11 2.57 4.30 2Nov-02-11 2.83 4.60 2Aug-04-11 3.43 5.20 2May-06-11 4.23 5.30 2Mar-22-11 4.48 5.70 2Mar-16-11 3.73 5.60 2Feb-11-11 6.39 6.40 3Jan-26-11 5.94 5.70 3Dec-20-10 4.35 5.70 2Dec-07-10 5.52 6.00 3Nov-16-10 4.57 4.70 3Oct-25-10 4.03 4.20 3Aug-11-10 3.10 3.90 2May-11-10 2.49 3.50 2Mar-12-10 2.81 3.70 2Nov-16-09 3.56 3.70 3Nov-09-09 3.13 4.00 2Valuation Methodology: We value Uranium One Inc. on a comparative basis by applying a blended 50/50 average ofhistoric P/NAV and P/CF to our company NAVPS estimate and future cash flow projection, respectively.Risk FactorsGeneral Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included onRaymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing couldchange and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares ornew product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developmentswith respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospectivevaluation.Risks - Cameco Corporationi) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, Cameco may be atrisk of not being able to fund future exploration or development if gold prices decline; ii) uranium is a highly regulatedbusiness and therefore requires long lead times in order to permit projects; Cameco is at risk of being delayed on futuredevelopment of current or future projects; iii) continued escalation of mining-related capital costs may reduce profitability;iv) uncertainty surrounding the long-term uranium supply-demand framework and resulting price levels.Risks - Denison Mines Corp.i) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, Denison may be atrisk of not being able to fund future exploration or development if gold prices decline; ii) uranium is a highly regulatedbusiness and therefore requires long lead times in order to permit projects; Denison is at risk of being delayed on futuredevelopment of current or future projects; iii) continued escalation of mining-related capital costs which may reduceprofitability; iv) uncertainty surrounding the long-term uranium supply-demand framework and resulting price levels; v)some of Denison’s production comes from minority interests in uranium operations in Saskatchewan; the companytherefore does not have direct control over all of its production.Risks - Paladin Energy Ltd.i) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, Paladin may be atrisk of not being able to fund future exploration or development if gold prices decline; ii) uranium is a highly regulatedbusiness and therefore requires long lead times in order to permit projects; Paladin is at risk of being delayed on futuredevelopment of current or future projects; iii) continued escalation of mining-related capital costs may reduce profitability;iv) uncertainty surrounding the long-term uranium supply-demand framework and resulting price levels.Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Uranium Canada Research | Page 85 of 87Risks - Uranium Participation Corp.i) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, a decline in the priceof gold may impact UPC's share price; ii) a nuclear accident or terrorist attack on a nuclear reactor may undermine worldreactor growth, which could impact uranium prices and uranium equities; iii) uncertainty surrounding the long-termuranium supply-demand framework and resulting price levels.Risks - Ur-Energy Inc.i) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, Ur-Energy may be atrisk of not being able to fund future exploration or development if gold prices decline; ii) uranium is a highly regulatedbusiness and therefore requires long lead times in order to permit projects; Ur-Energy is at risk of being delayed on futuredevelopment of current or future projects; iii) continued escalation of mining-related capital costs may reduce profitabilityif and when operations commence; iv) uncertainty surrounding the long-term uranium supply-demand framework andresulting price levels; v) inherent risks with the ISR extraction method, as well as, political risk in the United States.Risks - Uranium One Inc.i) A decline in the price of gold affects the equity resource market independent of commodity; as such, Uranium One maybe at risk of not being able to fund future exploration or development if gold prices decline; ii) uranium is a highly regulatedbusiness and therefore requires long lead times in order to permit projects; Uranium One is at risk of being delayed onfuture development of current or future projects; iii) continued escalation of mining-related capital costs may reduceprofitability; iv) uncertainty surrounding the long-term uranium supply-demand framework and resulting price levels; (v)political risk in Kazakhstan.Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitabilitycategories, is available for Raymond James at rjcapitalmarkets.com/SearchForDisclosures_main.asp and for Raymond JamesLimited at www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures.International DisclosuresFor clients in the United States:Investing in securities of issuers organized outside of the U.S., including ADRs, may entail certain risks. The securities ofnon-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the reporting requirements of, the U.S. Securities andExchange Commission. There may be limited information available on such securities. Investors who have received thisreport may be prohibited in certain states or other jurisdictions from purchasing the securities mentioned in this report.Please ask your Financial Advisor for additional details.Raymond James Ltd. is not a U.S. broker-dealer and therefore is not governed by U.S. laws, rules or regulations applicableto U.S. broker-dealers. Consequently, the persons responsible for the content of this publication are not licensed in the U.S.as research analysts in accordance with applicable rules promulgated by the U.S. Self Regulatory Organizations.Any U.S. Institutional Investor wishing to effect trades in any security should contact Raymond James (USA) Ltd., a U.S.broker-dealer affiliate of Raymond James Ltd.For clients in the United Kingdom:For clients of Raymond James & Associates (London Branch) and Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI):This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it isaddressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FSA rules or personsdescribed in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) or any other person towhom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, toany other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individualsor those who would be classified as Retail Clients.For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This report is for the use of professional investment advisers andmanagers and is not intended for use by clients.Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Page 1 and 2:
Mining & Natural ResourcesDavid Sad
Page 3 and 4:
Uranium Canada Research | Page 3 of
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Uranium Canada Research | Page 11 o
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 24 and 25:
Canada Research | Page 24 of 87Uran
Page 26:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35: Canada Research | Page 34 of 87Uran
show all

Clock - Uranium Supply Crunch and Critical ... - Andrew Johns

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?