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Clock - Uranium Supply Crunch and Critical ... - Andrew Johns

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<strong>Uranium</strong> Canada Research | Page 69 of 87<strong>Uranium</strong> Participation Corporation July 26, 2012U-TSXDavid Sadowski | 604.659.8255 | david.sadowski@raymondjames.caMining | <strong>Uranium</strong>Can I Buy a Vowel?EventWe are resuming research coverage of <strong>Uranium</strong> Participation Corp. (UPC) withan $8.00 target <strong>and</strong> a Strong Buy rating.RecommendationWe recommend UPC on minimal operational risk exposure to a potential spotprice rebound, as well as attractive valuation.AnalysisFund Background. UPC is the world’s only publicly-traded physical uraniumfund, offering exposure to spot uranium prices without the typical operationalrisks associated with other mining equities. The fund is managed by DenisonMines, who opportunistically buy <strong>and</strong> hold material. UPC may trade at adiscount or a premium to its NAV, depending on the outlook on uranium prices.NAV Calculation. We calculate UPC’s NAV by valuing the fund’s currentinventory of 13.42 Mlbs U3O8-equivalent at UxC’s weekly spot price(US$50.15/lb), net of current assets <strong>and</strong> liabilities. Our NAVPS is C$6.66.Large Discount to NAV. At $5.78/share, UPC’s share price implies a 13% discountto NAV, in-line with a 13% average discount since the March 2011 Fukushimaaccident, but below the 1% average premium from January 2008 to March 2011.Implied Price Below Marginal Cost. UPC is currently implying a uranium priceof US$44.55/lb, an 11% discount to current spot prices. We are doubtful themarket could support prices below

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