Paper - Statistics Singapore

methodology in Feb 1997 2 using three years’ population and deaths to reduce theimpact of year-to-year statistical variations. The new methodology also usesactuarially graduated 3 data and excludes Australian residents temporarily overseas.6. This paper provides the methodology for constructing complete life tablesfor the Singapore resident population. It also presents key trends in lifeexpectancies based on the complete life tables for 2003-2006.IIEstimation of Central Death Rates7. The complete life table is derived from the probability of death ( q x), whichis computed from the central death rates ( m x) for each single year of age x. Thecentral death rates of the reference year require annual deaths data and the stockpopulation in Singapore as at the mid-point of the reference year.8. The annual deaths data refer to deaths occurring in Singapore amongSingapore residents. The population data refer to Singapore residents (citizens andPermanent Residents) with usual residence in Singapore.Derivation and Graduation of Central Death Rates9. Given Singapore’s small population size, the number of deaths is sparselydistributed by single years of age. As a result, the central death rates at single yearof age derived directly from the raw data have significant random fluctuations.10. In order to reduce the impact of random fluctuations, the central death ratesfor age 0 4 , age group 1-4 years and quinquennial age groups 5-9 years, 10-14 years,etc are first derived by dividing the 3-year average number of deaths 5 amongSingapore residents by the estimated Singapore resident population in the agegroup 6 .2 Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3302.0 - Deaths, Australia, 1995.3 Graduated on the same principles which were used for the quinquennial Australian life tables prepared bythe Australian Government Actuary.4 Refers to infants below one year old.5 The approach of using deaths averaged over three years is also adopted by Australia Bureau of Statistics(ABS) and Statistics New Zealand (SNZ), so as to minimise the impact of year to year random fluctuationsnot reflective of the underlying causes or long term movements.6 For reference year t where the deaths data for year t+1 are not yet available, preliminary death rates arederived based on the average number of deaths in year t and year t-1.2