Thrasher, Bridget

CMIP5• Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5• Basis of IPCC AR5• Standard set of simulations• Available through Earth System Grid– pcmdi3.llnl.gov/esgcet

CMIP5 ArchiveACCESS1-0CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2GGFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-RModel NamesHadGEM2-ESINMCM4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC-ESMMIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC5MPI-ESM-LRMRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M

CMIP5 GHG ForcingsMeinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011

Method: BCSD• Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling– Described in Wood et al, 2002, and Wood et al,2004• Applied to monthly averages• 800m PRISM used for gridded observations– www.prism.oregonstate.edu• Reference period 1950-2005

Ensemble Statistics

Average Annual Precipitation2020s 2050s 2080s

mm/yrAnnual Total Precipitation RCP4.52200p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg200018001600140012001000800600400200

mm/yrAnnual Total Precipitation RCP8.52200p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg200018001600140012001000800600400200

mm/dPrecipitation Extremes RCP4.5p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg2220181614121086420

mm/dPrecipitation Extremes RCP8.5p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg2220181614121086420

Average Annual Tmax2020s 2050s 2080s

deg CTmax Extremes RCP4.5p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg34323028262422

deg CTmax Extremes RCP8.5p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg34323028262422

Average Annual Tmin2020s 2050s 2080s

deg CTmin Extremes RCP4.5p20 RCP4.5 p50 RCP4.5 p80 RCP4.5 Ref Avg10-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10

deg CTmin Extremes RCP8.5p20 RCP8.5 p50 RCP8.5 p80 RCP8.5 Ref Avg10-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10

Conclusions• No consensus on precipitation– Ensemble average shows no change– Ensemble extremes wet and dry• Maximum temperature increasing– Range over 21C ~2-8 degrees• Minimum temperature increasing– Range over 21C ~2-5 degrees– Worst case area above freezing year-round by EOC

Thank Youbridget@climateanalyticsgroup.org