Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006The table above shows that a total of 5,562 household moves are considered as potentially in need.Using the standard affordability test for existing households it is estimated that 72.4% of thesehouseholds cannot afford market housing (as with the main analysis of existing households in needthe affordability test is based on the size requirements and financial situation of those householdshaving made a ‘potentially in need’ move over the past two years). Therefore our estimate of thenumber of households falling into need within the City excluding transfers is 4,025 households(5,562 × 0.724) over the two-year period. Annualised this is 2,013 households per annum.8.5 In-migrant households unable to afford market housingThis is the final element of newly arising need. Households falling into need in this group arehouseholds currently living outside the City of Westminster who are expected to move into the Citybut cannot afford suitable private sector housing. The basic information for this is similar to theabove section except that it deals with households who are expected to move home to the City in thenext two years (based on past move information) and these households’ affordability.This data does not exclude transfers as none of these households could have transferred withinaffordable housing stock in the City at the time of the move. Household formation is not an issue asnone of these households could be double-counted because they do not currently live within theCity. Household moving to owner-occupation and tied accommodation are again excluded from theanalysis.ODPMGuide‘Households moving into the City and requiring affordable housing can be identifiedby HN surveys, again using data on recent movers’. [Section 4.4 (page 63)]The table below shows the derivation of the in-migrant element of newly arising need.Table 8.3 Derivation of Newly Arising Need from households currentlyliving outside the CityAspect of calculation Number Sub-totalNumber of households moving in past two years 22,126Minus moves from within City 9,023 13,103Minus households moving to owner-occupation 1,602 11,501Minus households moving to tied accommodation 384 11,117TOTAL APPLICABLE MOVES 11,117Times proportion unable to afford 71.1%TOTAL IN NEED (2 years) 7,902ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 3,951Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 82
8. Newly arising needIn total the table above shows that 11,117 ‘potentially in need’ moves took place in the past twoyears from outside the City. The survey data also shows us that 71.1% of these households cannotafford market housing (as with the main analysis of existing households in need the affordabilitytest is based on the size requirements and financial situation of those households having made a‘potentially in need’ move over the past two years). Therefore our estimate of the number ofhouseholds falling into need from outside the City is 7,902 households (11,117 × 0.711) over thetwo-year period. Annualised this is 3,951 households per annum.Although the level of need from in-migrants may seem relatively high, it is not an unusual level. Itshould also be remembered that requirements from those households falling into need but movingout of the City of Westminster will not have been included.This figure is high because Westminster has a highly transient population, including a significantnumber that reside in the City for a very short period of time. It is likely that many of thehouseholds that move into the City will be prepared to pay more than is recommended for theirhousing costs to reside in the area.8.6 SummaryThe data from each of the above sources can now be put into the Basic Needs Assessment Model asis shown in the table below. It indicates that additional need will arise from a total of 6,049households per annum.Table 8.4 Basic Needs Assessment Model – Stages 8 to 13N: NEWLY ARISING NEEDElement Notes Final number8. New household formation (gross, p.a.) 339. Times proportion unable to buy or rentin market10. plus ex-institutional population movinginto community11. plus existing households falling intoneed12. plus in-migrant households unable toafford market housing100.0% cannot affordmarket housingLeaves 33522,0133,95113. equals Newly arising need 9+10+11+12 6,049Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 83
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CITY OF WESTMINSTER2006 HOUSING NEE
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First Surveys MarketResearch13 Darw
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A12. Where do you and your partner
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D SPECIAL NEEDSD1. Do you or any of
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edroom(s)F5. How many bedrooms woul
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a) b)Like ExpectDetached house.....
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