Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

8. Newly arising need8.4 Existing households falling into needThis is an estimate of the number of existing households currently living in the City of Westminsterwho will fall into housing need over the next two years (and then annualised). The basicinformation for this is households who have moved home within the City in the last two years andaffordability. A household will fall into need if it has to move home and is unable to afford to dothis within the private sector (examples of such a move will be because of the end of a tenancyagreement). A household unable to afford market rent prices but moving to private rentedaccommodation may have to either claim housing benefit or spend more than a quarter of theirgross income on housing, which is considered unaffordable (or indeed a combination of both).ODPMGuide‘The basic needs model also identifies two other ways [the second is the nextsection] in which new needs may arise in a locality. The first of these refers toexisting households, previously satisfactorily housed, who fall into need during theperiod (per year, conventionally)’. [Section 4.4 (page 63)]Households previously living with parents, relatives or friends are excluded as these will doublecountwith the newly forming households already considered in the previous table. The data alsoexcludes moves between social rented properties. Households falling into need in the social rentedsector have their needs met through a transfer to another social rented property, hence releasing asocial rented property for someone else in need. The number of households falling into need in thesocial rented sector should therefore, over a period of time, roughly equal the supply of ‘transfers’and so the additional needs arising from within the social rented stock will be net zero. The dataagain excludes households moving to owner-occupation because these households at the time of themove (which is when we are interested in) could afford market housing whilst households movingto tied accommodation are also excluded.Table 8.2 Derivation of Newly Arising Need from households currentlyliving in the CityAspect of calculation Number Sub-totalNumber of households moving in past two years 22,126Minus moves from outside City -13,103 9,023Minus households forming in previous move -346 8,677Minus households transferring within affordable housing -134 8,543Minus households moving to owner-occupation -2,931 5,612Minus households moving to tied accommodation -50 5,562TOTAL APPLICABLE MOVES 5,562Times proportion unable to afford 72.4%TOTAL IN NEED (2 years) 4,025ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF NEWLY ARISING NEED 2,013Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 81