Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006For the purpose of this test we have set the overall net increase in dwellings to 680. This is based onthe required build rate from 1997 to 2016 as indicated in the London Plan.Full details of the analysis are presented in Appendix A3. Set out below is a summary of the results.12.5 Summary of dataThe results of the analysis can be summarised as follows, prior to inputting into the final table:Growth – 680 per annumDemandNew households forming within the City – 1,185In-migration – 2,963Households moving within the City – 4,130Total demand = 8,278SupplyHousehold dissolution (through death) – 825Out-migrant – 2,643Households moving within the City – 4,130Total supply = 7,598The results of the calculations detailed in Appendix A4 are shown in the following table:TenureTable 12.1 Total shortfall or (surplus)Size requirement1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedroomsTOTALOwner-occupation (334) 179 487 73 405Affordable housing 983 1,756 1,380 39 4,158Private rented (1,981) (1,180) (625) (97) (3,882)TOTAL (1,332) 755 1,243 14 680Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 114
12. Balancing housing marketsA number of conclusions can be drawn from this analysis:i) In terms of the demand for affordable housing in the City it is clear that this is on-going.The BHM methodology suggests a significant shortfall of affordable housing of all sizesof accommodation, most notably two and three bedroom homesii)iii)Overall, the data shows a shortfall in the owner-occupied sector. Within this sector thereis a shortfall of all dwelling sizes with the exception of one bedroom properties whichdisplay a surplus. The main shortage is for three bedroom homes.The model indicates that there is a large surplus in the private rented sector. In this sectorall dwelling sizes show a surplus, since many households view this sector as anundesirable long term solution whilst the supply of private rented housing is likely to belarge due to the temporary nature of the tenure.12.6 Implications of analysisAnalysis using the ODPM ‘Basic Needs Assessment model’ found that there is a shortage ofaffordable housing in the City of Westminster. The BHM assessment, which constrains growthaccording to planned development and then balances demand across all tenures, also produces thisconclusion.The Guide Model and the BHM analysis both find that an affordable housing target is justified inthe City of Westminster. The more robust methodology of the Guide Model means that thisprovides a more accurate estimate of the total shortfall.There is a difference between the size profiles recorded for affordable housing in the BHM analysiswith that recorded in the BNAM analysis in table 10.2e. The reason for this is that the BNAManalysis is based on the strict bedroom standard (described in the glossary) which allows for nounder-occupation and records the minimum number of bedrooms a household requires, whilst theBHM analysis is based on the dwelling size preferences of households so therefore includes anydesired under-occupation and allows for household growth.12.7 SummaryIn addition to looking at the needs of households by closely following the ODPM’s ‘Basic NeedsAssessment Model’ the survey used a ‘demand’ based methodology to estimate the future demandfor housing across all tenures.PAGE 115
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CITY OF WESTMINSTER2006 HOUSING NEE
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First Surveys MarketResearch13 Darw
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A12. Where do you and your partner
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D SPECIAL NEEDSD1. Do you or any of
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edroom(s)F5. How many bedrooms woul
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a) b)Like ExpectDetached house.....
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