1985-1987 - Population Studies Center - University of Michigan

1985-87Report of thePopulation Studies CenterKathleen Duke,Editor/ f i l lThe UniversityofMichigan1225 South University AvenueAnn Arbor, Michigan 48104-2590CONTENTSDirector's Statement 1Research 3Publications 11Research Facilities 17Training Program 19Dissertations Completed 21The Lolagene C. CoombsDissertation Award 22Prospectuses Approved 22Student Publications andPresentations.. 23Student'iFellowships and Awards 25Courses in Demography 25Professional Activities 27Former Students 33Twenty-Five Years at the Population StudiesCenter: Retrospect and Prospect,by Ronald Treedman 38A Celebration 43A Renewal 46Staff Roster 49

The Regents of the University: Deane Baker, Ann Arbor: Paul W. Brown,Pctoskcy; Neal D. Nielsen, Brighton; Philip H. Power, Ann Arbor;Thomas A. Roach, Detroit; Veronica L. Smith, Grosse lie; Nellie M.Vamcr, Detroit; James L. Waters, Muskegon;Harold T. Shapiro (ex officio)The University of Michigan as an Equal Opportunity/AffirmativeAction employer complies with applicable federal and state lawsprohibiting discrimination, including Title IX of the EducationAmendments of 1972 and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of1973. It is the policy of The University of Michigan that no person, onthe basis of race, sex, color, religion, national origin or ancestry, age,marital status, handicap, or Vietnam-era veteran status, shall bediscriminated against in employment, educational programs andactivities, or admissions. Inquiries or complaints may be addressed tothe University's Director of Affirmative Action, TitleIX and Section504 Compliance,2012 Fleming Administration Building, Ann ArborMichigan48109-1340. (313)763-0235.Population Studies Center

DIRECTOR'SSTFrrEITIEnTJuly 1,1987 marked the end of the decade AlbertHermalin was Director of the Population StudiesCenter. As a Center associate I knew he was doing anexcellent job; as his successor, I know Al was superb.As director, Al was a dynamic and energetic leaderwith vision who also had an unusual ability to elicit theideas and contributions of his colleagues. He wascompassionate, sensitive, always willing to listen, andunfailingly helpful. It is the Center's good fortune thatall of these qualities remain in abundance, as Al applieshis energies arid creativity in new directions.Al's organizational accomplishments span the entirerange of Center functioning. During his tenure asdirector, he was responsible for two successful roundsof renewal of the Center's NICHD grant for the supportof core services. With each renewal, the supportprovided by NICHD increased, not just monetarily butalso in the scope of the functions supported. Alsoduring this same period, the Center successfullyrenewed its NICHD training grant several times. In itsmost recent form, the training grant combines thesociology and economics programs into a single, moreintegrated program — an innovation that shouldenhance the intellectual opportunities for all of usassociated with the Center.Although these grants are critical to the existence ofthe Population Studies Center, they by no meansprovide all of the support necessary for the Center tofunction. It is therefore noteworthy that during Al'sdirectorship the University of Michigan generouslyagreed to increase its support of our activities — thussupplementing the NICHD center grant. In addition,under Al's directorship, the Center was awarded aHewlett Foundation grant that has been the Center'sprincipal means of supporting the training of foreignstudents. In the late 1970s, Al was successful inobtaining a grant from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundationto facilitate the launching of professional careers ofoutstanding young PhDs. Not only has this grantachieved its stated goals for the individual recipients, italso has had a major effect on the Center's intellectuallife, coming as it did during a period of stability in thenumber of faculty. Still another accomplishment thatdepended on Al's vision has been the recent approvalof a National Institute on Aging training grant thatbegan supporting pre- and post-doctoral fellows as of1987-1988, and will enhance the Center's research andtraining in the demography of aging. An Alfred P.Sloan Foundation grant to the Center, awarded inresponse to Al's interest in developing cross-disciplinarydialogue on population-related topics, has beenhighly successful and, indeed, will culminate in 1988with a multidisciplinary conference organized in largepart by the Center.Any recitation of these ventures in organizational cntrepreneurship(and still others not mentioned) wouldbe incomplete without characterization of the intellectualvision that fostered them. Al's is an activelypursued vision of coherent breadth, spanning all of thesocial sciences and reaching well into the biologicalsciences. Thus, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundationgrant has been shared with the Program in ReproductiveEndocrinology, and has had some notably successfulcross-disciplinary interactions. The Alfred P.SloanFoundation grant has been explicitly cross-disciplinary,and involves participants in biology and statistics. Thesame can be said of Al's organizational leadership inthe demography of aging, which has led to increasinginteraction with members of the Institute of Gerontology.In an era and environment in which the prevail-Director's Statementl

ing pressures seem to require single-minded concentrationon each individual's own research projects and agenda,Al's emphasis on breadth has been salutary. We haveall benefited from exposure to people looking at similartopics from different perspectives, within our ownuniversity.Somehow, throughout all of his years as Director(the job is nominally half-time), Al managed to findrime to maintain a full research agenda. Like the secretof successful parenthood, how Al did this remainsmysterious. As his sometime co-author, I do know thatAl brings formidable insight to his research, and thathe also balances his breadth with a wholesome tendencyto — in Alfred North Whitehead's words —"seek simplicity, and distrust it."And so we have lost an outstanding director and"regained" a cherished colleague. This was the symbolicmessage of a weil attended outdoor barbecue thispast summer, which gathered Center staff, studentsand friends for an opportunity to express our affectionfor Al Hermalin.This report documents another transition — the retirementsof Ronald and Deborah Freedman from theUniversity of Michigan faculty. As might be expected,Ron and Deborah now lead lives that are'anything butretiring. They occupy Center offices, continue to doresearch, consult, and travel professionally. Ron wasthe founder and first director of the Center, is a majorfigure in population studies nationally and internationally,and has long been the Center's senior statesman.Deborah has been a Center associate for many years, iswell known for her studies on fertility dynamics,family planning, and household structure, and is justlycelebrated for her peerless skills in helping friends,colleagues, and students make important life decisions,find housing, and thread their way through new andcomplex circumstances — locally and in foreignsettings where she has had the benefit of experience.The Center completed its 25th year in 1986. In June 'of that year we held a major celebration consisting ofmany parts, not the least of which were a set of scientificmeetings and a major fete for Ron and Deborah.Al Hermalin was the mastermind behind this, withvirtually everybody on the staff working extremelyhard to make this week-long event a great success.This report describes the celebration, and includessnapshots contributed by some of our skilled amateurphotographers documenting that happy occasion. Alsoincluded, with much gratitude on our part, is Ron'sinformal history of the Center, written in conjunctionwith the 25th anniversary.The 25th anniversary celebration also marked the initiationof the Ronald Freedman Fund for InternationalPopulation Activities. The fund will be used to sustainthe Center's longstanding interest in collaborativeresearch involving developing nations. It is an honorto list the roll of donors in this report, and a source ofenormous pride to note that the contributors include somany alumni, colleagues, and friends.The Center entered the 1987-1988 academic yearwith a vigorous and exciting research and trainingprogram, and with strong institutional support — bothfrom within as well as outside the University. TheUniversity continues to lease the Center's longtimequarters on South University Avenue. We have twicein recent years been awarded Behavioral ScienceResearch Grants by the University for computingequipment, and this has aided the Center's transitionto microcomputing. This past summer, with Universitysupport, we installed a much needed new telephonesystem. The current academic year is also oneof unique challenge and opportunity, because theCenter will be reviewed by the University for the firsttime in its history. This process may lead to unforeseenchanges and new administrative alignmentsdesigned to aid accomplishment of the Center's goals.This report describes the research of Center staff andstudents, its training program, support facilities, andthe service activities of the staff. The report is directedto the University of Michigan community, otherpopulation organizations, funding agencies, currentand prospective students, and to the press and generalpublic. No single report is likely to meet the diverseneeds of this audience. We thus welcome inquiries,and will be pleased to provide additional informationabout any aspect of our work.William M. MasonDecember 19872 Population Studies Center

RESEARCHThe Center facilitates a large and diverse interdisciplinaryprogram of research into the causes andconsequences of demographic behavior. Two broadsubstantive themes have dominated over time —fertility and family planning, and migration. Additionalfoci are historical demography, economicdemographicinteractions, marriage and family structure,and social-demographic interactions, classificationswhich overlap to some extent with the broaderthemes. Given the importance of survey data andmeaningful measurement techniques in populationstudies, a portion of the work at the Center is ofnecessity methodological, as the staff seeks to refineexisting techniques or develop new tools in pursuing agiven substantive problem.As an outgrowth of its basic research, the Center hasbeen developing interdisciplinary contacts withindividuals in other campus units who share a commoninterest in population-based analyses. In 1985, theAlfred P. Sloan Foundation awarded funds to theCenter to develop contacts between these units:biology, natural resources, mathematics, statistics,demography, economics, epidemiology, and genetics.A comprehensive inventory of population-relatedresearch at the University was conducted by an internfrom the U-M Continuing Education for WomenProgram, Janice Light, under the direction of LoraMyers and Albert I. Hermalin. A number of informalseminars on population modeling has been held forthose identified by the inventory.The following abstracts describe many of the researchprojects underway at the Center during the1985-1987 period, followed by a list by author of thestaff publications for the same period and a descriptionof Center's resources for research.FERTILITYCross-National:Births.Weather, Fecundity, and the Timing ofWith Jeffrey A. Miron of the Department of Economics,David Lam is investigating seasonal fluctuations inbirths in the United States and other countries. Approximatelyhalf of the non-trend variation in births isaccounted for by seasonal variation but there are nogenerally accepted explanations for this seasonality.The first phase of the project involved documenting theseasonality of births across countries and time using anempirical framework. The researchers are developingand testing a model for evaluating alternative explanationsof seasonality. Using an econometric approach,they are identifying the direct contribution of weatherin explaining monthly births. They are also examiningseasonality across "contraceptive regimes" to test forthe importance of different explanations of seasonality.Isolating the determinants of seasonality should increaseunderstanding of the determinants of births ingeneral. Professor James Wood, formerly a MellonFellow at the Center and now at the University ofWisconsin, has been consultant for the project, particularlyon relevant biomedical literature. The project isbeing funded by the National Institute for Child Healthand Human Development (NICHD).A continuation of this research has been proposedwhich extends the analysis in several new directions.Since inclusion of direct measures of the weatherexplains some but not all seasonality of births, theresearchers will use additional sources of data tofurther test hypotheses that were not ruled out byresults to date. Monthly data on marriages, economicvariables, and fetal and infant mortality will be used,Research 3

I.as well as survey data, to examine directly the influenceof economic and social variables on seasonality.iThailand: Analysis of Thailand's Demographic and HealthSurvey.John Knodel is collaborating with colleagues at theInstitute of Population Studies in Thailand on theanalysis of the Demographic and Health Survey conductedthere during the first half of 1987. He willparticipate in the production of the country report andassist in studies dealing with other topics, includingcontraception initiation patterns following childbirth,education expectations and attainment patterns forchildren, and trends and patterns in infant feedingpractices.Cross-Cultural: Family Planning Effectiveness and iheHealth Consequences of Contraceptive Use and ControlledFertility.Ronald Freedman, John Knodel, and Albert I. Hermalinhave been active in working groups under theNational Academy of Sciences' Committee on Population.Freedman and Hermalin contributed to a volumeon Organizing for Effective Family Planning Programs asmembers of the Working Group on Family PlanningEffectiveness of the NAS Committee on Population.The group studied the importance of different componentsof family planning programs in the developingworld for overall effectiveness, and the volume, publishedin February 1987, reviews what evidence suggestsabout effectiveness, ranging from service deliverystrategies and human resource management to monitoringand evaluation.John Knodel is serving on the Working Group on theHealth Consequences of Contraceptive Use and ControlledFertility. This group has begun a review of theavailable evidence on the effects of changing patternsof contraceptive use and childbearing for the health ofmothers and their children in the developing world.Particular attention will be paid to the growth in theuse of modern contraceptives, the decline in the lengthof time women breastfeed, and the reduction in fertilitythat has taken place in some countries.Germany: Demographic Behavior in Eighteenth andNineteenth Century Villages.John Knodel has completed a detailed examinationof demographic behavior in 14 German villages duringthe eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the crucialperiod leading to and encompassing the early stages ofthe demographic transition. His work is forthcomingas a monograph to be published by Cambridge UniversityPress in early 1988- The micro-level approach,using reconstituted family histories based on villagegenealogies, permits analyses which interrelate differentaspects of demographic behavior at the individualor family level and provides information often notavailable from standard demographic sources. Thetopics investigated include infant, child, and maternalmortality; marriage and remarriage; illegitimacy, prenuptialpregnancy, and the onset of childbearing;marital reproduction; changes in the level of naturalfertility; the onset of deliberate marital fertility control;interrelationships between nuptiality, fertility, andfamily size; and the relationship between child mortalityand reproductive behavior.Cross-Cultural: Effects of Contextual Factors on FertilityRegulation and on Fertility.A project undertaken for the National Institute ofChild Health and Human Development by Albert I.Hermalin focuses on the use of contextual analysis forthe evaluation of changes in fertility behavior and theeffectiveness of family planning programs. Otherprimary investigators who have considerable experiencewith multilevel analysis, Center affiliate ProfessorBarbara Entwisle of the University of North Carolinaand Professor John B. Casterline of Brown University(a former Center trainee) are collaborating on thisproject. In the first phase, the investigators havedeveloped a paper on the potential of contextualanalysis for evaluation purposes, consolidating reviewsof past studies and problems associated with contextualanalysis.The second and major phase of the project involvesanalysis of two rich data sets for Costa Rica and Egyptthat combine individual information with a detailedarray of community and program characteristics. Theanalyses will focus on the micro and macro determinantsof various measures of contraceptive use andpreferences for children, probing the sensitivity ofresults to definition of community and choice of macrovariables. Dr. Luis Rosero of the Asociacion DemograficaCostarricense had an extended stay at theCenter collaborating on this phase of the project, andDr. Hussein A. Saycd of the Population and FamilyPlanning Board of Egypt worked with Barbara Entwisleat the Carolina Population Center.In the third phase, the lessons of the theoretical andempirical work are being integrated into guidelines forthe prospective design of multilevel studies. Capitalizingon the previous work, the guidelines will addressthe coordination of the individual and communitylevelinstruments, implications for sampling design,strategics for formulation and refinement of hypotheses,and methods of data collection and analysis.4 Population Studies Center

China: Fertility and Nuptiality Trends in the People'sRepublic of China (PRC).Ronald Freedman (in collaboration with WilliamLavely of the University of Washington and ZhaoZhenu and Li Bohua of the Chinese Information Centerof the PRC) is studying fertility trends and variationsin China using the One-Per-Thousand Fertility Surveydone in the PRC in 1982. This project has alreadyresulted in an article on "Local Area Variations inReproductive Behavior in China" to be published inPopulation Studies in the spring of 1988. The role ofeducation in nuptiality and fertility change in the provincesof Sichuan and Liaoning between 1968-70 and1979-82, the period of precipitous fertility decline, isthe subject of a second article now in draft.Work is proceeding on an analysis of the determinantsof historical fertility trends in major regions ofChina, taking into account especially the topography,soil conditions, and water-availability which has determinedto a substantial degree the agricultural productivityof local areas within the major regions. Thiswork is being done with the support of the East-WestPopulation Institute, which has an agreement with theState Family Planning Commission of the PRC for analysisof the One-Per-Thousand Survey.MARRIAGE AND FAMILY STRUCTUREUnited States: Inter generationalPanel Study of Parentsand Children.Deborah Freedman and Arland Thornton continue tostudy the family and household decisions of youngadults as they make the transition to adulthood, usinglongitudinal data from the 23-year-old Detroit AreaStudy (DAS). In 1980 and 1985, the children born in1962 to a sample of women in the Detroit area wereinterviewed, and Freedman and Thornton have useddata from the panel study to examine the process ofcohabitation and marriage, particularly the causes andconsequences of entrance into cohabitation withoutmarriage. They found a clear causal impact of valuesand religious commitment on experience with cohabitationand that cohabitation, in turn, influences subsequentattitudes and values.Extending earlier work on changing attitudes towardfamily and demographic issues, they are also analyzingdata from the 1985 DAS interviews and two other datasets. They find that after a period of rapid change infamilial attitudes in the 1960s and 1970s, attitudestoward marriage, divorce, childlessness, and premaritalsex have remained quite constant during the early1980s. Attitudes toward the roles of women, however,John Knodel, Deborah and Ronald Freedman, and Napaporn Chayovan,a formerCenterstudent, reunite in Thailand.have continued their long-term egalitarian movement.With data about visiting and support behavioracross three generations, they are currently describingthe kinds and frequencies of intergenerational interchanges.One analysis will investigate whether motherswho received help from their parents when theirchildren were born are more likely than others to behelpful to their aging parents now.Freedman and Thornton collected event history datausing a life history calendar, and have summarizedtheir approach and its success in an article forthcomingin Sociological Methodology. Comparison of reportsfrom the 1985 and 1980 interviews provided someevaluation of the quality of the retrospective data.They found that reports of 1980 marriage, childbearing,and educational attendance obtained in 1985 were veryclose to those reported in 1980; retrospective reports oflabor force status, although not quite as reliable, werealso good.SOCIAL-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONSSoviet Union: The Soviet Interview Project.Barbara A. Anderson and Brian D. Silver are among12 investigators, including economists, political scientists,sociologists, and Russian language and literatureexperts from several universities and institutions, whoarc studying political and social issues in the SovietUnion. Their research is based on interviews withemigrants from the Soviet Union to the United States.In 1983, almost 3,000 emigrants were interviewed; in1986, an additional 600 more recent emigrants wereinterviewed. The Soviet Interview Project (SIP) issponsored by the National Council for Soviet and EasttAResearch 5

European Research and directed by James Millar of theUniversity of Illinois. Professors Anderson and Silver'swork has focused on issues of data quality and questionsabout family and household demography.Professor Anderson has been investigating lifecourse dynamics in the Soviet Interview Project data.She has found that although the level of female laborforce participation in this group was very high, veryfew women had uninterrupted careers. Also, earlychildbearing affected the timing of labor force entry,but was not related to reduced labor force participationover the life cycle. Data on the status of women andchild care are being used to study contingent householdand family decision-making.Professor Silver has been investigating politicalattitudes and beliefs. He has found that even thoughall the respondents left the Soviet Union, they express ahigh degree of support for many Soviet institutions,including public medical care and state control ofheavy industry. In addition, although those who hadhigher incomes in the Soviet Union were more supportiveof the regime, higher educational levels wereassociated with more skepticism and less support ofregime norms.United States: Ecological Determinants of IndividualBehavior.David Goldberg has been looking at the separatecontribution of individual characteristics and ofpopulation potentials on a number of variables in theDetroit metropolitan area in 1980 and 1981. Using aweighted sample of 1,205 individuals, ProfessorGoldberg found that for Republican Party preferencefor individuals, a measure of the population potentialof Republican Party preference had a significant effecteven after important characteristics of the individualwere taken into account. The more people who livedclose-to the respondent favored the Republican Party,the more iikely the respondent was to favor the RepublicanParty, even after the respondent's race, age, sex,and a variety of socioeconomic characteristics weretaken into account. Somewhat weaker effects ofpopulation potential measures were found for howfrequently people travelled to downtown Detroit fornon-business reasons and whether people planned tomove within the next 2-3 years, Allen Beck and BaronMoots collaborated on the project.Thailand: Socioeconomic Consequences of Fertility Declinefor the Thai Family.John Knodel is using both quantitative and qualitativemethodologies to assess the perceived and actualconsequences of the sharp reduction in fertility that hasoccurred over the last two decades in Thailand for thesocioeconomic well-being of the Thai family. Theresearch plan includes a survey, in depth interviewswith key informants, and focus group discussions. Theinvestigators are particularly interested in the impactthat reduced family size has had on the ability toeducate children, accumulation of material wealth, andwomen's labor force participation. The general strategyof the project is to compare couples with large andsmall family sizes in two districts in Thailand withdifferent social, economic and demographic settings.The project is concerned with assessing the extent towhich the rationale for the National Family PlanningProgram in Thailand has actually been confirmed byexperience, now that the program has had success inreducing fertility. This work has been supported byFamily Health International and the RockefellerFoundation.ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTIONSCross-National:of Income.Demographic Effects on the DistributionThe effects of population growth and other demographicchanges on the distribution of income is thefocus of a continuing project by David Lam. This workhas used techniques from stable population theory toanalyze the effects of changing age structure anddifferential fertility across income classes on incomeinequality. A portion of this research was supportedby the National Academy of Sciences. An overview ofthe effects of population growth on inequality appearedin the Academy's recent report on populationgrowth and economic development. In a phase of theitWffiII••11IIPI!RDavid A. Lam and Jeffrey Miron6 Population Studies Center

project conducted jointly with Deborah Levison, aCenter trainee in economic demography, age profiles ofearnings inequality in Brazil and the U. S. are decomposedin order to compare the relative importance ofage, experience, and schooling in explaining inequalityin the two countries.United States: Consumption Aspirations of Young Adults.Widespread consumerism among adolescents leadsthem to unrealistic expectations for high levels ofownership of consumer goods and relatively largefamily sizes, according to Deborah Freedman. She hasused data from Michigan's Detroit Area Study, alongitudinal data set of mothers and their childrenborn in 1961, to study the consumption aspirations anddesired family size of 18 year-olds. She found thatalthough the living standards of the parental familyhad some positive effect on their offspring's materialwants, the major determinant of their aspirations forconsumer goods was their ownership of fairly substantialitems of consumer goods while still in high school.Despite their desire for consumer goods, this group hasrelatively high family size goals (2.9 children) comparedto present fertility rates, and they may adjusttheir fertility goals downward as they get older.United States: The Consequences of Federal TransferPrograms.In a paper presented to the Social Statistics Section ofthe American Statistical Association in August 1986,Reynolds Farley and Lisa J. Neidert looked at howwelfare and government transfer payments are distributedamong American households and their effects onhousehold income. They used a weighted sample fromthe March 1985 Current Population Survey and dividedit into four groups: the dependent poor, theworking poor (those who depended on transfer paymentsfor less than half their income), the near poor(those whose incomes are 1 to 1.5 times the povertycut-off level) and the non-poor. The working poor, ofwhom three-quarters are in the labor force, are notmuch better off than the dependent poor, with householdincomes averaging only $264 more per year thanthose of the dependent poor. The near poor benefitgreatly from transfer payments — almost 55 percent ofhouseholds in this category would be in poverty if itwere not for government transfer payments.United States: The Color Line and the Quality of Life inAmerica.The Russell Sage Foundation recently published TheColor line and the Quality of Life in America, by ReynoldsFarley and sociology professor Walter R. Allen. Usingdata from the censuses of 1790 to 1980, their workconstitutes a major demographic analysis of changesover time in the social and economic conditions ofblacks in the United States. It encompasses suchdimensions as fertility, mortality, migration, familystructure, educational attainment, employment, andearnings, comparing blacks and whites on major socialindicators. The findings of the study are mixed but notequivocal: blacks show decided gains on some measures,such as educational attainment and occupationalachievement, but a persistent lack of progress onothers, such as personal income, participation in thelabor force, and residential integration.United States: The Detroit Child Care Study.From a survey of mothers of preschool-aged childrenin the Detroit area, Karen Oppenheim Mason is investigatinghow the cost, availability, and quality of nonmaternalchild care influences mothers' decisions aboutemployment and about bearing additional children.The project is funded by NICHD. Specific aims includeunderstanding what constitutes "satisfactory child careat reasonable cost" to women in a variety of social andeconomic circumstances, and understanding whetherthe local availability and cost of alternative forms ofchild care influence women's labor force participationor hours worked and their reproductive behavior.In 1985 and 1986, the project collected interview datafrom a probability sample of mothers of preschoolagedchildren living in the greater Detroit metropolitanarea. The survey was conducted by the Survey ResearchCenter of the University of Michigan. Respondentswere asked about fertility and employmenthistories and plans, past and current child care arrangements,perceptions of child care availability andcosts, and several other relevant topics. Unemploymentdata from the area is also being merged with thesurvey interview data.From analyses to date, Mason has found that a sizeableproportion of mothers of preschool-aged children(as many as 40%) report that child care has been or is aconstraint on their employment. The proportion reportingthat child care is a constraint on their fertility islower, although nontrivial. The fewer the economicresources available to women, the more that child careproblems are reported to constrain their employmentor fertility in some way.A series of statistical models relating socioeconomic,demographic and background variables to the perceivedand actual cost/availability of child care and towomen's current and planned employment andfertility will be estimated using standard statisticalResearch 7

techniques, such as path analysis, single-equationordinary least squares regression analysis and logisticresponse models. William M. Mason is serving asstatistical consultant to the project. The mainobject ofthese estimates willbe to test several hypotheses, mostprominently the hypothesis that high child care costslead to reduced fertility and female labor supply.Soviet Union: Demographic Patterns of Soviet Regionsand Ethnic Groups.Barbara A. Anderson and Center affiliate Brian D.Silverare continuing their study of population dynamicsin the USSR since World War II. They considertheSoviet Union anexcellent laboratoryfor the study ofdemographic patterns because there is wide diversityin demographic behavior and in socio-cultural characteristicsof subpopulations which exists under acommon set of administrative rules and operationalprocedures. Their project produced fundamentalestimates of age distributions, life tables, and fertilitymeasuresforthe Soviet population as a whole and forSoviet regions and ethnic groups in ordertoobtainindicators of underlying demographic processes.Anderson and Silver haveassessed the completenessof Soviet census enumeration and birth registration forchildren and adolescents counted in the 1959 and 1970censuses. They found that between 4 and 5 percent ofbirthswere unregistered; pre-school children, adolescentsaged 16-17 and young adults aged 20-24 wereundercnumerated by 3 to 4 percent; while primaryschool-age children and adolescents aged 18-20werealmost completely enumerated. They also addressedthe Soviet policyof enumerating both "present" and"permanent" populations in censuses, finding largedifferences between rural and urban areas, and theynote a gradual shifting of the base of most reportedpopulation characteristics in Soviet censuses to thepermanent population. In articles published in ResearchGuide to the Russian and Soviet Censuses, Andersonreviewsthe concepts of marital status, householdheadship, family membership, fertility, and dependencystatus employed in Soviet censuses and theirchangesover time for both longitudinal and comparativestudies.In their work on Soviet mortality, they have foundthat the level of mortality in the Soviet Union is high bythe standards of developed countries. Definitionalconventions and poordata quality led the actual levelof many mortality indicators to be substantially worsethan the reported levels. Furthermore, improvementsin data quality over time havealso made many reportedmortality indicators worsen over time. However,the trend in (he actual values of many mortalityindicators over timeis not as badasthe trend inreported mortality indicators, even though the actualmortality levels are worse than the reported mortalitylevels.United States: Political Alienation, Cohort Size, and theEasterlin Hypothesis.With Joan R. Kahn, a former Center student now onthe faculty at the University of Maryland, William M.Mason evaluated Richard Easterlin's extension of histheory of cohort crowding to political alienation in theUnited States. Easterlin argued that cohort crowdingexplains temporal variability not only infertility,butalso in divorce, suicide, crime, and political alienationas well. According to this theory, increased competitionfor limited resources and thwarted aspirationsbased on theirparents' experiences causes young adultmembers of large cohorts to feel more politically alien-IWilliam M. Masonatcd than their counterparts in small cohorts. Consequently,young people from baby boom birth cohortswere supposed to feel greater political alienation thanearlier or later cohorts.Mason and Kahn used data fromthe MichiganNational Election Surveys forthe presidential yearsfrom 1952 to 1980 and various measures of cohortsize.They found that political alienation is largely unaffectedby birth cohort membership and that levels ofalienation fluctuate over time for the populace as awhole. A period basis more accurately describesswings in political alienation, and political and socialissues are more closely associated than economic issueswith the originsof the post-World WarII rise inalienation.United States: The Status of Black Americans.In1984, the National Academy of Sciences establishedthe Committee on the Status of Black Americans,8 Population Studies Center

which has undertaken amajor assessment ofchangesin the status of blacks inthe United States since 1940.Reynolds Farley is Senior Research Consultantfor thestudy. The committee established five panels chargedwith assembling data and preparing reports on sixmajor topics: education, economic status, politicalparticipation, administration ofjustice, healthstatusand demography, and social and cultural change andcontinuity. A major summary report on the status ofblacks inthe United States willbe completed early in1988, with panel reports to follow later inthe year.METHODOLOGYUnited States: Census Undercount Adjustment and theQuality of Geographic Population Distributions.In a study by Mellon Fellow Allen Schirm andSamuel Preston of the University of Pennsylvania, asimulation procedure was developed to measure theeffects of synthetic adjustment for census undcrcountson the quality of estimated proportionate geographicpopulation distributions. Despite state-to-statc variationsin undercounts and measurement errors innational undercountestimates,synthetic adjustmentimprovesstate proportions for amajority of thenational population two-thirds of the time, although itmay produce a much poorer geographic distribution inany particular application. Schirm and Preston deriveanalytical expressions showing the conditions on whichimprovements from census adjustment depend. Theinvestigators presented their work at the 1987 annualmeetings of the Population Association of America,and at the Joint Statistical Meetings.United States: The Reporting of Voting Behavior.As an outgrowth of their work on the Soviet InterviewProject, a concern with how reliably peopleanswer survey questions led Barbara A. Anderson andBrian D. Silver to related research on vote misreportingin American elections. They have used election andvote validationdata from the National Election Studiesof the University of Michigan Centerfor PoliticalStudies and the Survey Research Center. ProfessorPaul R. Abramson of the Political Science Departmentat Michigan State University collaborated on thestudies.The investigators have explored several aspects ofelectoral behavior and race of interviewer effects.Although earlierliterature has maintained that respondentcharacteristics are unrelated to vote misreporting,they have found strong evidence that although moreeducated people are more likely tovotethanlesseducated people, those moreeducated people who donot vote, for whatever reason,are extremely likelytoclaim that they voted. In addition, although strongsupport of political norms, suchas a sense of citizenduty, is strongly related to actual voting,it is alsostrongly related toactual non-voters claimingto havevoted.They have also found that, although the respondentcharacteristics that lead to vote misreporting are thesame for blacksas whites,those blacknon-voters whoare interviewed by black interviewers are even morelikely to claimthat they voted. In further work on ractof interviewer effects, they have found that the race ofthe interviewer has strong and unexpected effects on awide range of racially-related attitudes and policypositions.Professors Abramson, Anderson, and Silver alsocollaborated on a study of theeffects of question orderin attitude surveys. A substantial decline inthe percentageof respondents endorsing the "citizen dutynorm" in the NES of1984 is argued tobe a methodologicalartifact resulting from changes inthe content ofquestionnaires andthe order of questions over time.The investigators'analyses suggest that even seeminglyminor changes in questionnaire content can substantiallyaffect the distribution of responsesto attitudinalquestions.United States: Public Goods and the Economics of theFamily.New theoretical approaches to the economics offamily structure and household behavior are beingdeveloped by David Lam and Theodore Bergstrom ofthe Department of Economics. Careful analysis of theirimplications willincrease our understandingof boththecauses and consequences of recent changes infamily structure in developing countries and in theUnitedStates.Using the modern theory of public goods, two theoreticalproblems of the household are being addressed.The first isconcerned with explaining how individualssort themselves into households through marriage,creation of jointfamilies, and life cycle living arrangements.The equilibrium theory of marriage has beenextended with particularattention to the "public good"dimensions of marriage decisions. The second problemis how joint decisions are made within the householdand how "household public goods" areallocated.Part of this analysis focuses on theeffects of householdcomposition on consumption and labor supply decisions,extending the interpretationof changes inrelative prices tochanges in household composition.The two questions are integrated in away analogous toResearch 9

how public decisions are made; how public goods aresupplied and financed is interrelated with the questionof how people are grouped into communities.The theoretical dimensions of this work have beenfunded by NICHD. Preliminary investigation of theMichigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics as a sourcefor empirical testingof some key results has begun.Other potential data sets are being evaluated for testingthe empirical implications.MIGRATIONUnited States and Mexico: The Role of Apprehensions inthe Illegal Alien Market.Demographic techniques are being applied to thedynamics of illegal labormarketby Mellon FellowSherrie Kossoudji andcolleague Susan I. Ranneyof theUniversity of Washington. Using data from a largenational survey (ENEFNEU, conducted in1978 by theMexicangovernment), theyare examining relevanthypotheses about undocumented migration of Mexicansto the United States. They arc analyzing the relationshipbetween apprehensions, the microeconomicand macroeconomic determinants of migration, andthe migrating behavior of Mexicans. The data set alsoallows comparisons of the seasonal patterns of migrationflows with apprehension flows. The investigationisexpected toshed light on whether the increasedemphasis on border control inthe 1986 Immigrationand Reform Act is likely to have its desired consequences.The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is fundingthe research.Europe and North America: Metropolitan Migration inEurope and North America.With funding from NICHD, William H. Frey is completinga four-year project on migration inlarge Europeanand North American metropolitan areas. He hasassembled comparably-defined data for European andNorth American metropolitan areas with populationsgreater than one million, documenting migrationstream rates and components leading to core-peripheryredistribution. Two analyses have been undertakenwith this data: (1) a cross-sectional analysis of relativestream magnitudes, correlates of stream rates, andcore-periphery population projections based on migrationstreams over the 1975-80 period; and (2) a longitudinalanalysis ofchanges inthe magnitudes, rates, andcore-periphery population projections associated withmigration streams observed around1970 as contrastedto 1975-80 forthese areas. Professor Frey has presentedresults of analyses of intrametropolitan city/suburb redistribution tendencies and interregional,metropolitan/nonmetropolitan in the United States injournal articles andat professional meetings. Theresultsofthese studies constitute baseline analyses forreplications with the other countries inthe study.United States and Other Developed Countries: MetropolitanMigration of the Elderly.William H. Frey is continuing his study of the spatialdynamics of the interregional and intrametropolitanmigration of the elderly in industrialized societies. Thepurpose of the research is to use information onpost-1970 shifts in lifecourse migrationto understand betterthe likely future geographical distribution of theelderly. Data from Professor Prey's metropolitanmigrationproject supplies information on migration inmetropolitan areas from eighteen different countries,including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, theUnited States, and several European countries. Thedata consist of sex-and age-disaggregatedrates andmovement stream components forthree Canadianmetropolitanareas, 32 metropolitan areas in the UnitedStates, and approximately 52 metropolitan areas in theremaining countries.Although the focus of this project is on elderly migration,the assumption is that the geographic concentrationofthe elderly at any time reflects the cumulativeredistribution experiences of this population overits entire life span. The project will compare theoutcomes of two alternative multi-regional cohortcomponent projections, one attributing pre-1970 agespecificmigration rates and one assuming post-1970age-specific migration rates, to all current and futurecohorts. Differences in the concentration of the elderlyacross regions, metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitanareas,and across centralcities and suburbs withinmetropolitan areas, will be examined.10 Population Studies Center

STAFF PUBLICATIONSBarbara A. Anderson(with Brian D. Saver and Paul R. Abramson). The Effects ofthe Raceof the Interviewer on Race-Related Attitudes of Black Respondentsin SRC/CPS National Section Studies. PSC ResearchReport No. 86-113 (September1987).(with Brian D. Silver). The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958-1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence. PSC ResearchReport No. 87-111 (June 1987).(with Brian D. Silver). The Effects of the Registration System on theSeasonality of Births: The Case ofthe Soviet Union. PSC ResearchReport No. 87-108 (April 1987). Forthcoming in Population Studies.(with Brian D. Silver). The SIP General Survey Sample. In James R.Millar, ed.. Politics, Work and Daily Life in the USSR: A Survey ofFormer Soviet Citizens. New York: Cambridge University Press,1987,(with Brian D. Silver). Infant Mortality in the Soviet Union: RegionalDifferences and Measurement Issues. Population and DevelopmentReview 12(4):705-738 (December 1986). Also appeared as PSCResearch Report 86-93 (April 1986).(with Brian D. Silver and PaulR. Abramson). The Effects of Race ofthe Interviewer on Measures of Electoral Participation by Blacksin SRC National Election Studies. PSC Research Report 86-102(September1986). Forthcoming in Public Opinion Quarterly.(withBrian D. Silver). Tautologies in the Study of Excess Mortality inthe USSR inthe 1930s. Slavic Review 45(2):307-313 (Summer1986).(with Paul R. Abramson and Brian D. Silver). The Effects of QuestionOrder in Attitude Surveys: The Case ofthe SRC/CPS Citizen DutyItems. PSC Research Report 86-99 (July1986). Forthcoming inAmerican Journal of Political Science.The Life Course of Soviet Women Bom1905-1960. In James R. Millar,ed.. Politics, Work, and Daily Life in the USSR: A Survey of FormerSoviet Citizens. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987.Also appeared as PSC Research Report86-91 (February 1986).Barbara A. Anderson (Cont'd.)(with Brian D. Silver and Victoria Velkoff)- Education of the Handicappedin the USSR. PSCResearch Report 86-90 (Feburary 1986).Forthcoming in Soviet Studies, April 1987.(with Brian D. Silver and Paul R. Abramson). The Presence of Othersand Overreporting of Voting in American National Elections.Public Opinion Quarterly 50: 228-239 (Summer 1986). Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report85-71 (January1985).(with Brian D. Silver and Paul R. Abramson). The Presence of OthersDuring the Interview and Overstatement of Reported Voting inAmerican Elections. Public Opinion Quarterly 50: 228-239 (July1986). Also appeared as PSCResearch Report 85-71 (January1985) .(with Brian D. Silver and Paul R. Abramson). Who OverreporlsVoting? American Political Science Review80(2):613-o24 (June1986) .Also appeared in a more detailed version as "WhoOverreports Voting in American Elections? A Reconsideration ofthe Effects of Respondent Characteristics," PSC Research Report85-76 (March 1985).(with Brian D. Silver). Sex Differentials in Mortality in the SovietUnion: Regional Differences in Length of Working Life inComparative Perspective. Population Studies 40:191-214 (1986).Also appeared as PSC Research Report 85-85 (July 1985).(with Brian D. Silver). The Validity of Survey Responses: Insightsfrom Interviews of Married Couples in a Survey of SovietEmigrants. PSC Research Report86-89 (January 1986). Forthcomingin Social Forces.Cultural and Regional Factors in the Decline of Marital Fertility inEurope. In Anslcy J. Coale and Susan Cott Walkins, eds.. TheDecline of Fertility in Europe, pp. 293-313. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press, 1986.(with Brian D. Silver). 'Permanent' and 'Present' Populations in SovietStatistics. Soviet Studies37(3): 386-402 (July1985).(with Brian D. Silver). Estimating Census Undercount from SchoolEnrollment Data: An Application to the Soviet Censuses of1959and 1970. Demography22(2): 289-308 (May 1985).Family, Marriage, and Fertility in Russian and Soviet Censuses. InRalph S. Clem, ed., Research Guide to the Russian and SovietCensuses, (Proceedings ofthe Conference on Russian and SovietCensuses held at the Kennan Institute for Advanced RussianStudies, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington DC., May 27,1983), pp. 131-154. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1986.Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report 84-64 (October 1984).(with Brian D. Silver). Demographic Consequences of World War Ion the Non-Russian Nationalities of the USSR. InSusan J. Linz,ed.. The Impact of World War II on the Soviet Union, pp.207-242.Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Allanheld, 1985. Alsoappeared as PSCResearch Report 84-63 (October 1984).(with Brian D. Silver). Equality, Efficiency, and Politics in SovietBilingual Education Policy, 1934-1980. American Political ScienceReview78(4): 1019-1039.Barbara A. Anderson andBrian D. SilverResearch 11

Barbara A. Anderson (Cont'd.)(with Brian D. Silver). Measurement and Mismeasuremen t of theValidity of Self-Reported Vote. American Journal of Political Science30(4): 771-785 (November 1986). Also appeared as PSC ResearchReport 85-75 (February 1985).(with Brian D. Silver). Demographic Analysis and PopulationCatastrophes in the USSR. Slavic Review 44(3): 517-536 (Fall 1985).Mariah D. R. EvansSources of Immigrants' Language Proficiency: Australian Results withComparisons to the Federal Republicof Germany and the UnitedStates of America. European Sociological Review2(3): 226-236(December 1966).American Fertility Patterns: A Comparison of White and NonwhiteCohorts Bom 1903-1956. Population and Development Review12(2):267-293 (June 1986).Reynolds FarleyThe Quality of Life for Black Americans Twenty Years After the CivilRights Revolution. Forthcoming, Milbank Quarterly, Supplement 1,Volume 65,1988.(with Walter Allen). The Color Line and the Quality of Life in America. A1980 Census Monograph. New York: Sage Publications, 1987.(with Suzanne M. Bianchi). The Growing Racial Difference inMarriage and Family Patterns. PSC Research Report 87-107 (April1987).(with Lisa J. Neidert). The Safety Net in1985: An Examination of theConsequences of Federal Transfer Programs. Forthcoming inProceedings of the American Statistical Association: Social StatisticsSection, 1986.(with Mark Langberg). Residential Segregation of Asian Americans in1980. Sociology and Social Research 70(1): 71-75 (Winter1986).Assessing Black Progress: Voting and Gtizenship Rights, Residencyand Housing, Education. Economic Outlook USA 13(2): 16-19(Second Quarter 1986); Assessing Black Progress: Employment,Occupation, Earnings, Income, Poverty. Economic Outlook USA13(3):14-19 (Third Quarter 1986).(with Walter Allen). The Shifting Social and Economic Tides of BlackAmerica, 1950-1980. Annual Review of Sociology 12: 277-306 (1986).(with Patricia Gwartney-Gibbs and Patricia Taylor). The ChangingStructure of Earrungs Inequality. Research in Social Stratificationand Mobility, Vol. 5:105-138 (1986).Three Steps Forward and TwoBack? Recent Changes in the Social andEconomic Statusof Blacks. Ethnic and Racial Studies8(1):4-28(January 1985).Understanding Racial Differences and Trends: How the Survey ofIncome and Program Participation Can Assist. Journal of Economicand Social Measurement 13: 245-261 (1985).Reynolds Farley (Cont'd.)(with Suzanne Bianchi). Social Class Polarization: Is It OccurringAmong Blacks? In Cora Bagley Manett and Cheryl Leggon, eds..Race and Ethnic Relations, Vol. 4, pp. 1-31. Greenwich, CN: JaiPress,1985.(with Robert Johnson). On the Statistical Significance ofthe Index ofDissimilarity. In Proceedings of theAmerican Statistical Association,Social Statistics Section, 1985.Deborah Freedman(with Arland Thornton, Donald Camburn, Duane Alwin, and LindaYoung-DeMarco). The Life History Calendar: A TechniqueforCollecting Retrospective Data. Forthcoming in SociologicalMethodology.(with Ronald Freedman). Adding Demand-Side Variablesto Studythe Intersection Between Demand and Supply in Bangladesh.World Bank PHN Technical Note No.86-28. Washington, DC TheWorld Bank, October 1986.(with John C. Caldwell, Pat Caldwell, Ronald Freedman, and ArlandThornton). Household and Family Variables in Fertility Studies:Theory, Methodology, and Illustrative Questions for FertilitySurveys. Report to Demographic and Health Surveys, WestinghouseApplied Public Systems, Summer 1985.Ronald Freedman(with Xaio Zhenya, Li Bohua, and William Lavely). Local AreaVariations in Reproductive Behavior in The People's RepublicofChina, 1973-1982. Forthcoming in Population Studies, March 1988.(with Ming-Cheng Chang and Te-Hsiung Sun). Trends in Fertility,Family Size Preferences, and Family Planning Practice: Taiwan,1961-1985. Forthcoming in Studies in Family Planning, November/December 1987.The Social and Political Environment, Fertility, and Family PlanningProgram Effectiveness. In Robert J. Lapham and George B.Simmons, eds, Organizing for Effective Family Planning Programs.Report of the Working Group on Family Planning Effectiveness,Committee on Population, National Research Council, pages 37-57. Washington, DC National Academy Press,1987.The Contribution of SocialScience Research to Population Policy andFamily Planning Program Effectiveness. Studies in Family Planning18(2):57-82 (March/April 1987).(with Deborah S. Freedman). Adding Demand-Side Variables toStudy the Intersection Between Demand and Supply in Bangladesh.World Bank PHN Technical Note No. 86-28. Washington,DC The World Bank, October 1986.On Underestimating the Rate of Social Change: A Cautionary Note.Population and Development Review 12(3): 529-532 (September1986). Also appeared as PSC Research Report 86-95 (June 1986).Policy Options After the Demographic Transition: The CaseofTaiwan. Population and Development Review12(1): 77-100 (March1986). Also appeared as PSC Research Report 85-88 (November1985).12 Population Studies Center

Ronald Freedman (Cont'd.)Theories of Fertility Decline. In K. Mahadevan, ed.. Fertility andMortality: Theory, Methodology and Empirical Issues, pp. 30-36. NewDelhi India: Sage Publications,1986.(with Te-Hsiung Sun, Paul K. C Liu, and Ming-Cheng Chang). PolicyOptions in the Second Stage of the Demographic Transition — TheCase of Taiwan. (In Chinese), Academia Economic Papers (Taipei,Taiwan) 13(2): 201-231 (September1985).How Analysisof Cultural and Institutional Factors May AffectProspects for Improvement in Family Planning Program Designand Operations. Summary of the IUSSP Seminar on SocietalInfluences on Family Planning Program Performance (Jamaica,April 1985) Forthcoming in conference proceedings to bepublished by the IUSSP.Summary Observations on the WFS Seminar on Collection andAnalysis of Data on Community and Institutional Factors. In JohnB. Casterline, ed.. The Collection and Analysis of Community Data,pp.269-271. Voorburg: International Statistical Institute, 1985.(with John C. Caldwell, Pat Caldwell, Deborah Freedman, and ArlandThornton). Household and Family Variables in Fertility Studies:Theory, Methodology, and Illustrative Questions for FertilitySurveys. Report to Demographic and Health Surveys, WestinghouseApplied Public Systems, Summer 1985.(with Arland Thornton and Deborah Freedman). Further Reflectionson Changes In Fertility Expectations and Preferences. Demography21(3): 423-429 (August 1984).(with Arland Thornton, Te-Hsiung Sun, and Ming-Cheng Chang).Intergenerational Relations and Reproductive Behavior in Taiwan.Demography23(2):185-197 (May 1986). Also appeared as PSCResearch Report 84-59 (June 1984).The Contribution of the World Fertility Survey to an Understanding ofFertility Determinants. Forthcoming in a final volume on WorldFertility Survey research, proceedings of a conference held inLondon, April 1984.Albert I. Hermalin(with Krishnan Namboodiri). Select Methodological Issues inStudying the Effect of Developmental Projects on Population.Paper presentedat the United Nations Workshop on Assessingthe Demographic Consequences of Major Development Projects,New York, December 1986. Forthcoming, United Nations.(with Barbara Entwisle). The Availability and Accessibility of ContraceptiveServices. In Robert J. Lapham and George B. Simmons,eds.. Organizing for Effective Family Planning Programs. Report ofthe Working Group on Family Planning Effectiveness, Committeeon Population, National Research Council, pages 583-595.Washington, DC National Academy Press, 1987.Review of Limiting Population Growth and the Ford Foundation Contribution,by J. Caldwell and P. Caldwell. Population and DevelopmentReview 13(1):158-161 (March 1987)The Multilevel Approachto Family Planning Program Evaluation.Chapter III in Addendum to Manual IX: The Methodology ofMeasuring the Impact of Family Planning Programmes on Fertility,Population Studies No. 66, pp. 15-24. New York: United Nations,1986.(with Barbara Entwisle). Future Directions in the Analysis ofContraceptive Availability. International Population Conference:Florence 1985, Vol. 3, (Proceedings of the General Conference of theIUSSP, Florence, Italy, June 5-12, 1985), pp. 445-456(with Barbara Entwisle and Lora G. Myers). Some Lessons fromtheAttempt to Retrieve Early KAP and Fertility Surveys. PopulationIndex51(2): 194-209 (Summer 1985). Also appeared as PSCResearch Report 85-70 (January1985).Use of Individual and Areal Data in the Evaluation of ProgrammeImpact on Fertility. In Studies to Enhance the Evaluation of FamilyPlanning Programmes, Population Studies No. 87, (Part One.Report ofthe Third Expert Group Meeting on MethodsofMeasuring the Impact of Family Planning Programmes onFertility), p. 8. ST/ESA/SER.A.87. New York: United Nations,1985.William H. Frey(with Alden Speare, Jr.). Regional and Metropolitan Growth and Declinein the United States. A 1980 Census Monograph. Forthcoming,RussellSage Foundation,1968."Migration and Depopulation of the Metropolis: Regional Restructuringor Rural Renaissance?" American Sociological Review52(2): 240-257 (April 1987).Lifecourse Migration and Redistributionofthe Elderly Across U. S.Regions and Metropolitan Areas. Economic Outlook USA 13(2): 10-16 (Second Quarter 1986).Mover Destination Selectivity and the Changing Suburbanization ofMetropolitan Whites and Blacks. Demography22(2):223-243 (May1985). Also appeared as PSC Research Report 83-49 (November1983).=3Lifecourse Migration of Metropolitan Whites and Blacks and theStructure of Demographic Change in Large Central Cities.American Sociological Review49(6):803-827 (December 1984). Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report 83-47 (November 1983).William H. FreyResearch 13

Albert I. Hermalin (Cont'd.)Some Observations on the Regulation ofFertility. In K. Mahadevan,ed.. Fertility and Mortality: Theory, Methodology and Empirical Issues,pp. 55-64. New Delhi, India: Sage Publications, 1986.(with Barbara Entwisle and William M. Mason). The MultilevelDependence of Contraceptive Use on Socioeconomic Developmentand Family Planning Program Strength. Demography 23(2):199-216 (May 1986).The Relation of Fertility Desires to Contraceptive Use: InterpretingChanges over Time and Place. In Studies to Enhance the Evaluationof Family Planning Programmes, Population Studies No. 87, (PartThree. Participants'Statements on the Issues, pp. 97-100. ST/ESA/SER.A.87. New York: United Nations, 1985.Integrating Individual and Community Data in the Study of ContraceptiveBehavior. In John B. Casterline, ed., The Collection andAnalysis of Community Data, pp. 113-122. (Proceedings of aConference on the Analysis of Data on Community and InstitutionalFactors, London, June 20-24,1983). Voorburg: InternationalStatistical Institute,1985.(with Barbara Entwisle and William M. Mason). A Model for theComparative Analysis of WFS Contraceptive Use Data. In John R.Ross and RegLna McNamara, eds., Survey Analysis for the Guidanceof Family Planning Programs, pp. 127-146. Liege, Belguim: IUSSP,Ordina Editions,1984.Barbara HirshomOrganizational Behavior Regarding Older Workers: PrototypicalResponses. Forthcomingin journal of Aging Studies.(with Marjorie H. Cantor). Women as Caregivers: Motivations andImplications. Forthcoming in Women and Health, special edition.(with Eric R. Kingson and John M. Cornman). Ties That Bind: TheInterdependence of Generations. A Report from the GerontologicalSociety of America. Washington, D.C: Seven Locks Press, 1986.John Knodel (Cont'd.)Thailand's Reproductive Revolution. Social Science72(1): 52-56 (Spring1987).(with Aphichat Chamratrithirong and Nibhon Debavalya). TheCultural Context of Thailand's Fertility Decline. Asia-PacificPopulation Journal 1 (1): 23-48 (March 1986).(with Peerasit Kamnuansilpa). The Initiation of Postpartum Contraceptionin Thailand: Results from the 1984 ContraceptivePrevalence Survey. PSC Research Report 86-97 (July 1986).(with Napaporn Chayovan). Improving the Collection of VillageLevel Data: An Experience from Thailand. In John B. Casterline,ed.. The Collection and Analysis of Community Data, pp.225-233.(Proceedings of the WFS Seminar on Collection and AnalysisofData on Community and Institutional Factors, London, June1983).Voorburg: International Statistical Institute, 1985.Demographic Transitions in German Villages. In A. J. Coale andSusan Cott Watkins, eds., The Decline of Fertility in Europe, pp. 337-389. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,1986. Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report 83-45 (September1983).(with Peerasit Kamnuansilpa and Aphichat Chamratrithirong). InfantFeeding Practices and Postpartum Amenorrhea in Thailand:Results from the 1984 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Studies inFamily Planning 16:302-311 (November/December 1985).(with Kathcrine Lynch). The Declineof Remarriage: Evidence fromGerman Village Populations in the Eighteenth and NineteenthCenturies. Journal of Family History 10(1):34-59 (Spring 1985).(with Peerasit Kamriuansupa). Mortality, Health and Infant FeedingPractices inthe Northeast of Thailand: Methodological Issues andSubstantive Results. Bangkok: National Institute of DevelopmentAdministration, 1985.(with Anthony Pramualratana and Napaporn Havanon). Exploringthe Normative Basis for Age at Marriage in Thailand: An Examplefrom Focus Group Research. Journal of Marriage and the Family47(1): 203-210 (February 1985). Also appeared as PSC ResearchReport 83-50 (December 1983).John KnodelDemographic Behavior in the Past: A Study of FourteenGerman VillagePopulations in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries. Forthcoming,Cambridge University Press, 1988.(with Aphichat Chamratrithirong and Nibhon Debavalya). Thailand'sReproductive Revolution: Rapid Fertility Decline in a Third WorldSetting. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 1987.(with Anthony Pramulratana and Napaporn Havanon). Focus GroupResearch on Fertility in Thailand: Methodology and Findings.Forthcoming in Jack Caldwell, Allan Hill, and Valerie Hull, eds.,The Micro-Approach io Demographic Research, Chapter 3. London:Kegan Paul.Two Centuries ofInfant, Child, and Maternal Mortality in GermanVillage Populations. Forthcoming in Lars-Goran Tedebrand, ed..Society, Health, and Population During the Demographic Transition.Starting, Stopping, and Spacing During the EarlyStages of FertilityTransition: The Experience of German Village Populations in the18th and 19th Centuries. Demography24(2): 143-162 (May 1987).Karen Oppenheim MasonPopulation Studies Center

John Knodel (Cont'd.)(with Peerasit Kamnuansilpa and Aphichat Chamratrithirong). InfantFeeding Practices and Postpartum Amenorrhea in Thailand:Results from the 1984 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Studies inFamily Planning16: 302-311 (November/December 1985).(with Aphichat Chamratrithirong and Peerasit Kamnuansilpa).Contraceptive Practice and Fertility in Thailand: Results of theThird Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Studies in Family Planning17(6): 278-287 (November/December 1986).(with Gary Lewis). Postpartum Amenorrhea in Selected DevelopingCountries: Estimates from Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys.Social Biology31(3-4): 308-320 (Fall/Winter 1984). Also appearedas PSC Research Report 83-42 (November 1983).(with N. Debavalya, N. Chayovan and A. Chamratrithirong).Marriage Patterns in Thailand: A Review of DemographicEvidence. In A. Chamratrithirong, ed.. Perspectives on the ThaiMarriage. IPSR Publication No. 81- Bangkok: Mahidol University,1984.Sherrie KossoudjiPride and Prejudice: Culture inthe Labor Market and the Home.Forthcoming in Steven Shulman and William Darity, eds.. Blacksand Whites in the U. S. Labor Market: Alternative Analyses of RacialInequality.English Language Ability and the Labor Market Opportunities of EastAsian and Hispanic Men. Forthcoming inthe journal of LaborEconomics.(with Richard C. Bilsborrow, Thomas M. McDcvitt, and RichardFuller). The Impact of Origin Community Characteristics onRural-Urban Out-Migration in a Developing Country.Demography24:191-210 (May 1987).(with Susan I. Ranney). Legal Status as Union Membership: Legal andIllegal Wage Rates of Mexican Immigrants. PSC Research Report86-103 (October 1986).David A. Lam(withJeffrey Miron). Seasonality of Births in Human Populations.PSC Research Report No. 87-114 (September 1987).Distribution Issues in the Relationship Between Population Growthand Economic Development. In D. Gale Johnson and Ronald D.Lee, eds., The Economic Consequences of Population Growth inDeveloping Countries, pp.589-627. Madison: University ofWisconsin Press, 1987.The Dynamics of Population Growth, Differential Fertility, andInequality. American Economic Review 76(5): 1103-1116 (December1986). Also appeared as PSC Research Report 85-69 (April1985) .Review of An Economic Model of Fertility, Sex and Contraceptionby Helge Brunborg, Journal of the American Statistical Association,September 1986.Lorenz Curves and Inequality Comparisons Under ChangingPopulation Composition. Forthcoming in Journal of PolicyModeling, special issue on population growth and economicdevelopment. Also appeared as PSC Research Report 86-92 (April1986) .William R. LavelyAge Patterns of Chinese Marital Fertility. P5C Research Report85-82(July 1985).The Rural Chinese Fertility Transition: A Report from Shifang Xian,Sichuan. Population Studies 38(3):365-384 (November 1984). Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report 83-48 (November 1983).Karen Oppenheim MasonThe Impact of Women's Social Position on Fertility in DevelopingCountries. Forthcoming in Sociological Forum, 1988.(with Anju Malhotia Taj). Gender Differences in Reproductive Goalsin Developing Countries. PSCResearch Report B7-105 (February1987). Forthcoming in Population and Development Review.(with Maxine Weinstein and Barbara Laslett). The Decline of Fertilityin Los Angeles, California, 1880-1900. PSC Research Report85-83(July 1985). Forthcoming in Population Studies.(with Lisa G. Cope and Barbara Laslett). Sources of Age and DateofBirth Misreporting inthe 1900 U. S. Census. PSC Research Report85-74 (February 1985). Forthcoming in Demography, November1987.(with Yu-Hsia Lu). Pro-Feminist Changes in Attitudes TowardWomen's Familial Roles, 1977-1985. PSC Research Report 86-%(June1986). Forthcoming in Gender and Society, March 1988.The Perceived Impact of Child Care Costs on Women's Labor Supplyand Fertility. PSC Research Report 87-110 (June 1987).RecentChange in Attitudes Toward Women's Roles inthe United States.In After the Storm: American Society a Decade After the Vietnam War,pp.461-488. Taipei, Taiwan: Institute of American Culture,Academia Sinica, 1987.The Status of Women: Conceptual and Methodological Issues inDemographic Studies. Sociological Forum, 1(2): 284-300 (Spring1986).Review of Janet Saltzman Chafetz, Sex and Advantage: A Comparative,Macro-Structural Theory of Sex Stratification. Contemporary Sociology14: 359-360 (May 1985).William M. Mason(with Joan R. Kahn). Political Alienation, Cohort Size, and theEasterlin Hypothesis. American Sociological Review 52(2): 155-169(April 1987). Also appeared as PSC Research Report86-98 (July1986).The Multilevel Approach: Illustrative Example. Annex to Chapter 3.The Multilevel Approachto Family Planning Program Evaluation.In Addendum to Manual IX: The Methodology of Measuring the Impactof Family Planning Programmes on Fertility, Population 5tudies No.66, pp. 24-31. New York: United Nations, 1986.(with Barbara Entwisle and Albert I. Hermalin). The MultilevelDependence of Contraceptive Use on Socioeconomic Developmentand Family Planning Program Strength. Demography23(2):199-216 (May 1986). Also appeared as PSCResearch Report 84-60(July 1984).Research 15

Arland Thornton (Cont'd.)(with Willard Rodgers). Changing Patterns of First Marriage in theUnited States. Demography22(2): 265-279 (May 1985).Changing Attitudes Toward Separation and Divorce: Causes andConsequences, American Journal of Sociology 90(4): 856-872(January 1985).Maxine Weinsteinfta:\(with James W- Wood). A Model of Age-Specific Fecundability. PSCResearch Report 86-101 (September 1986). Forthcoming inPopulation Studies.(with Arland Thornton). Mother-Child Relations and AdolescentSexual Attitudes and Behavior. PSC Research Report 86-100(September 1986).(with Karen Oppenheim Mason and Barbara Laslett). The Decline ofFertility in Los Angeles, California, 1880-1900. PSC ResearchReport85-83 (July 1985). Population Studies 41(1987): 483-499.James W. Wood(with Maxine Weinstein). A Model of Age-Specific Fecundability.PSC Research Report86-101 (September 1986). Forthcoming inPopulation Studies.The Genetic Demography of the Gain] of Papua Guinea. III. Determinantsof Hfective Population Size. PSCResearch Report 85-87(November 1985).Convergence of Genetic Distances in a Migration Matrix Model. PSCResearch Report 85-81 (July 1985)1.(with P. L. Johnson and K. L. Campbell). Demographic and EndocrinologicalAspects of Low Natural Fertility in Highland NewGuinea. Journal ofBiosocial Science 17(l):57-79 (January 1985).(with P. E. Smouse and J.C. Long). Sex-Specific Dispersal Patterns inTwo Human Populations of Highland New Guinea. The AmericanNaturalist 125(6):747-768 (June 1985).(with D. Lai, P. L. Johnson, K. L. Campbell, and I. A. Maslar).Lactation and Birth-Spacing in Highland New Guinea. Journal ofBiosocial Science, Supplement 9:159-173 (1985). Alsoappeared asPSC Research Report 85-72 (January 1985).(with P. L. Johnson, K. L. Campbell, and I. A. Maslar). Long OvarianCycles in Women of Highland New Guinea. PSCResearch Report85-73 (January 1985).RESEARCH FACILITIESLocated in anoffice building nearthe University ofMichigan's main campus, the Center provides spaceand a full range of support services to the professionalstaff. Facilities include offices, computing equipment,a library, lounges, andconference rooms, and bothstaff and students spend most of their non-classroomtime here.SBCJ.farIn Nepal in 1986, Arland Thornton collects data for study on familystructure and fertilityin two mountain villages.In 1986, NICHD awarded the Center a five-yearrenewal of its core support services, testifying tothehigh regard of the Institutes and peer reviewers for thequality of the Center's work. Core services thatsupport staff researchare administrative and secretarialsupport, data processing, library, and editorialassistance. Susan Etter, administrativeassociate, andher assistants provide administrative support tocurrent projectsas well as research under developmentand the training program. With the director andassociate directorfor training, she oversees dailyoperations and participates in long-range planning.Remote access equipment at the Center connectsover thirty terminals and microcomputersto the U-Mmainframe, an IBM 3090. The mainframe and itsoperating system, MTS, are particularly well suitedtosocial science computing. The Center has the capacityfor interactive processing of datasets containinghundreds of thousands of case records. Microcomputersare also employed bystaff andstudentsfor dataanalysis, word processing, and graphicsapplications.In addition to the printers attached to microcomputers,four network laser printers and a line printer allow foron-site retrieval of output. The Center's data processingfacilities are headed by J. Michael Coble and AlbertAnderson.The growing number of data files fromprojects overthe years constitutes an importantresource forstaffand students. A new core unit funded by NICHD, thedata archive, has undertaken the documentation andarchivingof the Center's data resources, a library ofdata files comprising 1,000 reels of magnetic tape.These data sets include a number of U. S. censussurvey files, World Fertility Surveys, the major nationalU. S. fertility surveys, KAP studies from developingResearch17

countries, and a number of other national samplesurveys. J. Michael Coble and Lisa J. Neidert direct thearchive.Another new core service added with funding underthe NICHD grant renewal is statistical consultation,under the direction of William M. Mason. Its missionis to facilitate substantive research by Center staff byidentifying statistical and design problems of particularprojects that would benefit from consultation withstatistical experts, both from the University of Michiganand other institutions. There has been intensivedevelopment of new statistical models valuable fordemographic research in recent years, and formalconsultation with outside experts is intended tocomplement the cross-project consulting on statisticalproblems that has characterized Center research in thepast.The reference collection at the Center serves the dataand research needs of staff members. At present itconsists of over 7,000 volumes, not including journals,United Nations publications, selected reprints, andforeign materials. Over half of the collection consistsof volumes from the U. S. decennial censuses of 1880 to1980 and census reports. An extensive collection ofworking papers and reports by other centers is in theCenter's library also. Representing this specializedcollection is an on line subject classification systemwhich aids students and staff members in searching thelibrary's holdings for materials by author(s), subjects,title, geographical focus, and ethnic group. The Centerlibrarian, Lois Groesbeck, aids staff and students usinglibrary resources and in accessing databases such asPOPLINE, MEDLARS, DIALOG, and the University ofMichigan's library holdings.s\tThe Center disseminates results of its research bypublication and by making materials available tointerested colleagues. Periodical lists mailed to individuals,agencies, and institutions include reprints ofpublished articles and Research Reports, a pre-publicationseries. Kathleen Duke manages the Center'spublications and communications and provideseditorial assistance to authors.The University of Michigan's distinguished traditionin the behavioral and social sciences is reflected in itsinstitutional environment. A number of resourcesoutside the Center facilitate and enrich Center research,including the University's library system whichcontains over six million holdings. Other centers andinstitutes affiliated with the university, such as theInstitute for Social Research and area centers such asthe Center for Asian Studies, are devoted to researchcomplementary to the Center's work and enhanceinterdisciplinary contacts.y18 Population Studies Center

TRfllDIDG PROGRflmAs a research and training unit, the PopulationStudies Center provides intellectual and financialsupport to graduate students who demonstrate interestand ability in the field of population studies. Studentsare first admitted to either the sociology or the economicsdepartment of the University of Michiganbefore admission to the Center. Training involvesmastery of the techniques and substantive literaturenecessary to understand the social and economiccauses and consequences of population growth,composition, distribution, and change. Particularemphasis is given to basic demographic processes thatdetermine population structure and change. Studentsalso receive substantial training in formal demographicmethods, methodology, and statistics in advancedsociology and economics courses.The Center's primary contribution to student trainingis practical research experience under the supervisionof a professional staff member. This apprenticeshipinvolves 12 hours or more of work per weekduring the first three years in residence at the Center.During this apprenticeship, students typically work onone of their advisor's research projects. Assignmentsdepend on the students' interests and skills, and withexperience, students usually take on increasing responsibilityin their advisor's project, or they may develop aspecial project of interest to themselves and the supervisor.Karen Oppenheim Mason directed the trainingprogram from 1980 to 1986. Barbara A. Andersonbecame the Associate Director for Training in the fall of1986.Course work for the PhD usually requires five to sixterms for students in Sociology and slightly longer forEconomics students. By spring of their third year,sociology students are expected to have completed allcourse requirements, preliminary examinations, andhave an approved dissertation prospectus. The fourthyear is devotedto writingthedissertation. Economicsstudents in the apprenticeshipprogram usually completeal degree requirementsby thestart ofthefifthyear of graduate study,and thefifthyear is devotedtothe dissertation.In 1985, a seminarwascreated for students developingtheirdissertation prospectus. Trainees review theirresearch ideas, data needs, and technical problems in asupportivegroup, withthe aid offacultymembers.Other formaland informal educational experiencesoffered by the Center includetraining in basic computertechniques and in bibliographicsearches. Studentsare giventhe opportunitytofamiliarize themselveswiththe Center's library oftapesand programsandtheir applicationto problems of populationanalysis. More advanced courses on programmingandtheuseofstatistical packages are also offered by theCenter and otherunitswithintheuniversity. Amplecomputingfunds are providedtotrainees workingontheir dissertations.An interdisciplinary program whichenrichesthetraineeenvironmentwas initiatedbythe Alfred P.Sloan Foundation in 1985, whenan award totheCenterbegan tofoster interdisciplinary interactions betweenmembers ofvarious disciplines whoshare a commoninterest in population-based analysis. A comprehensiveinventory ofpopulation-related researchattheUniversity ofMichigan, including biology, demography,economics, natural resources, and mathematics,was followed by informal seminarson populationmodelingattended by bothfacultyand students.Students and facultyattend the Center's weeklynoonhour talksthat provide an informal forum for thepresentation of researchin progress. Joan R. Kahncoordinatedtheseminar in1984-85, Lisa G. CopeinTraining 19

1985-86, and Maxine Weinstein in 1986-87. Recenttitles include:"Does Higher Fertility for the Poor IncreaseIncome Inequality?""Population Aging in the People's Republic ofChina""The Demand for Adopted Children""Black Migrants to the South: Their Social andEconomic Characteristics""The Demography of the Early Roman Empire:An Outline"9i"Comparative Analysis of Early Fertility: FurtherAdvances with the WFS""Genetics and Demography of a Human Isolatein Northwest Argentina"Maxine Weinstein and Arland Thornton present a Brown Bag seminar onchanging household patterns in Taiwan.Other educational experiences include the weeklyeconomic demography seminar held at the Center.Visitors who have made presentations include RobertWillis of the Economics Research Center at NORC, SivGustafsson of the University of Stockholm, T. PaulSchultz of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University,Sheila Johansson of Stanford University, and DovChernichovsky of the World Bank. Interest in mathematicaldemography fostered a series of noon seminarsat the Center in 1985 on topics such as indirect mortalityestimation, migration matrices, and a model offecundability.Formal presentations also complement the Center'straining program. The Hawley Lecture Series, sponsoredjointly by the U-M Department of Sociology andthe University of North Carolina, honors Amos H.Hawley, chairman of the U-M Sociology Departmentfrom 1952 to 1961 and now at the University of NorthCarolina. The eighth Hawley Lecture was held in AnnArbor on November 7,1985, when Professor SidneyGoldstein of Brown University spoke on "Forms ofMobility and Policy Implications: A Comparison ofThailand and China." November 6,1987, Ansley Coaleof Princetdn University presented "Marriage andChildbearing in China Since 1940" as the tenth lecturein the series; the presentation was part of the Universityof Michigan's celebration of the 100th anniversaryof the National Institutes of Health.Center trainees have the opportunity to take shortsummer courses offered by the University's Institutefor Social Research and Interuniversity Consortium forPolitical and Social Research (ICPSR). These coversuch topics as sampling, survey design and instrumentation,and advanced methods of statistical analysis. Incooperation with the Population Studies Center, ICPSRrecently included courses geared to population specialists,such as methods of demographic estimation forsmall areas, taught by John F. Long of the CensusBureau, and techniques of demographic projection,taught by David Swanson of Bowling Green StateUniversity. Opportunities for internships at offcampuslocations, such as the International LaborOffice in Geneva, Centers for Disease Control inAtlanta, or extended field work abroad, are alsoavailable.In February 1985, David B. McMillen of the U. S.Bureau of the Census presented a series of lectures andseminars on the Bureau's Survey of Income andProgram Participation (SIPP) to acquaint both studentsand faculty with this new source of information onincome distribution in the United States. Interest at theUniversity led to Mr. McMillen's return in 1985 and1986 for shortcourses at ICPSR.The major support for American pre-doctoralstudents has come from training grants from theNational Institute of Child Health and Human Developmentfor sociology and economics students specializingin population studies. In September 1987, theCenter's separate programs in social and economicdemography were combined under a five-year renewalgrant from NICHD. The NICHD award also supportsone post-doctoral fellow each year. Recent recipientsof post-doctoral fellowships have been Paul D. Frenzen,Mariah D. R. Evans, and Ann Riley.A complementary training proposal to the NationalInstitute on Aging was also approved in 1987, addingsupport for two pre-doctoral students and one postdoctoralfellow and expanding the Center's training20 Population Studies Center

and research in the demography of aging. This newprogram will promote a social science-populationstudies approach to issues related to aging and supportscholars whose training and research apprenticeshipare specifically related to aging. Barbara Hirshorn isthe Center's first NIA post-doctoral fellow; Jill Grigsbyjoined the Center as an NIA post-doctoral fellow in1987.Foreign students are largely supported by grants tothe Center from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundationof California. The Hewlett award providestuition and stipend for six foreign students yearly atthe Population Studies Center. Other sources ofsupport for foreign students include the PopulationCouncil, the United Nations Fund for PopulationActivities, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the governmentsof their home countries.Since 1979, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation hasprovided for post-doctoral appointments to theCenter's staff. Mellon Fellows since the Center's lastreport have included William R. Lavely, SherrieKossoudji, Allen Schirm, and Maxine Weinstein.For more information about the training programand a description of application procedures, write tothe Associate Director for Training:Professor Barbara A. AndersonPopulation Studies CenterUniversity of Michigan1225 South University AvenueAnn Arbor, Michigan 48104-2590.DISSERTATIONS COMPLETEDThe following dissertations were completed since the Center's last report:Allen Beck May 1985"The Effects of Spatial Location and Structure onInterstate Migration," David Goldberg, chair; DonaldDeskins, Allan Feldt, and William Frey, members.Dr. Beck is a statistician with the U. S. Bureau of JusticeStatistics in Washington, DC.Jaime Benavente October 1987"Social Change and Fertility Decline in 19th CenturyCatalonia." Charles Tilly, chair; Barbara A. Anderson,William Sewell, Jr., and Maris Vinovskis, members.Dr. Benavente is employed by Community SystemsFoundation in Ann Arbor.Rachel Connelly August 1985"Two Essays on Demographics and Earnings." FrankStafford, chair; Reynolds Farley, Eva Mueller, andGary Solon, members.Dr. Connelly is Assistant Professor of Economics atBowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine. A portion ofher dissertation, "A Framework for the Analysis of theImpact of Cohort Size on Education and Labor Earnings,"won the Dorothy S. Thomas Award in 1986,given by the Population Association of America foroutstanding research papers by pre- or post-doctoralstudents.Lisa Gayle Cope August 1986'The Premarital Fertility Behavior of Black and WhiteWomen in the United States." Karen O. Mason, chair;Reynolds Farley, Sylvia Hacker, and Albert I. Hermalin,members.Dr. Cope joined the sociology department and Institutefor Survey Research at Temple University in thefall of 1987.Joan R. Kahn November 1984"Immigrant Fertility in the United States." Albert 1.Hermalin, chair; Reynolds Farley, William Mason, andMaris Vinovskis, members.Dr. Kahn has held a postdoctoral fellowship at theCarolina Population Center at the University of NorthCarolina and joined the sociology faculty at the Universityof Maryland in the fall of 1987.Genevieve Kenney March 1986"The Old Age Security Demand for Children: The Caseof Peninsular Malaysia." Eva Mueller, chair; TheodoreBergstrom, Jan Kmenta, David Lam and George Simmons,members.Dr. Kenney is a research associate at the Urban Institutein Washington, DCTraining 21

Mark Langberg February 1986"Residential Segregation and the Assimilation Process:The Case of Asian Americans in 1980." ReynoldsFarley, chair; Allan Feldt, William Frey and DavidGoldberg, members.Dr. Langberg is a financial aid analyst with the Officeof the Vice-President of the University of California.Kci Matsushita May 1986"An Economic Analysis of Age at First Marriage."John Laitner, chair; E. Philip Howrey, David Lam, andArland Thornton, members.Dr. Matsushita is with the Division of Human Reproductionof the Ministry of Health and Welfare inTokyo, Japan.Wang Feng August 1987"Reproductive Revolution in Hebei, China: Individualand Community Determinants of Fertility Decline inChina." Chair, Albert I. Hermalin; Ronald Freedman,Thomas Fricke, and Martin Whyte, members.Dr. Wang holds a post-doctoral fellowship at theUniversity of California at Berkeley.Rebeca Wong May 1987"Estimation of a Micro-Economic Model of ContraceptiveUse in Rural Mexico." Chair: Eva Mueller; Albert I.Hermalin, Jan Kmenta, and David Lam, members.Dr. Wong is Assistant Professor of Economics at theJohns Hopkins University.THE LOLAGENE C. COOMBS DISSERTATION AWARDIn honor of Lolagene C. Coombs, who served as aResearch Associate and Associate Director for Operationsuntil her retirement in December of 1981, theCenter established the Lolagene C. Coombs Dissertationaward. During her distinguished career in thepopulation field, Mrs. Coombs was a consultant tonational and international population agencies andhelped design fertility studies for a number of countries.She made an important contribution to demographicmethodology with her work in the measurementof preferences for the sex and number of children.Her contribution to the development of theCenter's training program and her interest in thecontinuing improvement of Center research facilitieswere much appreciated by the staff and students. Thedissertation award is intended to reflect Mrs. Coombs'high standards and her concern for the intellectual andmaterial well-being of Center students.Outstanding dissertations, selected by Center facultyas contributing significantly to demographic theory orthe improved measurement of concepts, are identifiedwith this honor. In 1986, the Coombs dissertationaward, a cash honorarium, was presented to twoformer students during the Center's twenty-fifthanniversary reunion: Allen Beck, now with the U. S.Department of Justice Statistics, for his dissertationentitled "The Effects of Spatial Location and Structureon Interstate Migration;" and Sherrie Kossoudji, nowAssistant Professor of Economics and Social Work atthe University of Michigan, for her dissertation on"Language and Labor Markets: Immigrants to theU.S."PROSPECTUSES APPROVEDThe following prospectuses were approved since the Center's last report:Abdallah Abdel-Aziz: "The Effect of Reproductive Behavioron Infant and Early Childhood Mortality inJordan." Albert I. Hermalin, chair; Charles Hammerslough,John Knodel, and Gayl Ness, members.(September 1987)Nicola Beiscl: "The Politics of Morality: Anti-ViceSocieties in 19th Century Boston, New York, andPhiladelphia." William M. Mason and Jeffery Paige,co-chairs; William Sewell, Jr., Mayer Zald, andTcrrcnce McDonald, members. (May 1986)Kofi Benefo: "Culture, Education, and ReproductiveBehavior in Sub-Saharan Africa: A ContextualAnalysis with World Fertility Survey Data." WilliamM. Mason and Barbara Anderson, co-chairs; JohnKnodel and Maxwell Owuru, members. (October1987)Jui-shan Chang: "The Transition to Sexual Experiencefor Women in Taiwan." Arland Thornton, chair;Duane Alwin, Thomas Fricke, and Albert I. Hermalin,members. (July 1986)22 Population Studies Center

Juan Diez-Medrano: "Nationalism and Independencein Spain: Basques and Catalans, 1975-1987." WilliamM. Mason and Jeffery Paige, co-chairs; WilliamSewell, Jr. and Ronald Inglehart, members. (November1987)Nilufer Hayat: "Gender Asymmetry and ReproductiveOrientations: A Contextual Analysis of TurkishData." William M. Mason and Jeffery Paige, cochairs;Karen Oppenheim Mason and Eva Mueller,members. (July 1985)John M. Lummis: "Parental SES and School Effects onEducational Performance in the United States, Japan,Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China."William M. Mason, chair; Harold W. Stevenson,Arland Thornton, and Martin Whyte, members.(November 1987)John Miller: "Imperfect Information, Signaling, and theMarriage Market." Theodore Bergstrom, chair;Barbara A. Anderson, Charles Brown, David A.Lam, members. (April 1987)Karl Monsma: "Class Structure and Dictatorship inPost-Colonial Buenos Aires." William M. Mason andJeffery Paige, co-chairs; William Sewell, Jr., andRebecca Scott, members. (June 1986)Ibrahim Osheba: "Determinants of Regional FertilityDifferentials in Egypt." Albert I. Hermalin, chair;Ronald Freedman, Charles Hammerslough, and GaylNess, members. (September 1987)Anju Taj: "Marriage Systems and Divorce in Indonesia."Karen Oppenheim Mason and ArlandThornton, co-chairs; Thomas Fricke and Albert I.Hermalin, members. (December 1986)Lowell Taylor: "Demographic Change in a Life CycleSaving Model." John Laitner, chair; David A. Lamand Eva Mueller, members. (June 1986)Wang Feng: "Reproductive Revolution in Hebei,China: Individual and Community Determinants ofFertility Decline in China." Chair, Albert I. Hermalin;Ronald Freedman, Thomas Fricke, and MartinWhyte, members. Qune 1986)Robert Wilger: "Black-White Residential Segregationin 1980." Chair: Reynolds Farley; William H. Frey,Donald Deskins, and John Nystuen, members.(September 1987)Rebeca Wong: "Estimation of a Micro-Economic Modelof contraceptive Use in Rural Mexico." Chair: EvaMueller; Albert I. Hermalin, Jan Kmenta, and DavidA. Lam, members. (May 1986)STUDENT PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONSAbdallah Abdel-Aziz(with John E. Anderson, Phyllis Wingo, and Borhan Shrydeh).Family Planning in Jordan: 1983 Survey Data.Studies in Family Planning 17(4): 199-205 Quly/August1986).Cynthia BuckleyPresented paper, "The Rise and Fall of Fertility: Thirty Yearsof Change in Romania." Population Association ofAmerica annual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Participant, Third Annual Workshop on Soviet and EastEuropean Economics, Social Science Research Council,Georgetown University, July 1987.Alicia CackleyPresented paper, "Rural-Urban Migration as a Risk-MinimizingStrategy in LDCs," at the annual meetings of thePopulation Association of America, Chicago, April 1987.(with Scott Crosse). "Benefit-Cost Analysis of the SenegalFamily Planning Program." Report prepared for USAID,Center for Research on Economic Development, Universityof Michigan, January 1985.Chin Yi ChuLolagene Coombs presents the Coombs DissertationAward to Allen Beck in June 1986.Presented paper, "An Intergenerational Model of Bequest,Fertility, Income Distribution, and Population Growth,"Population Association of America annual meetings,Boston, March 1985.Training 23

STUDENT PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS (Cont'd.)Rachel ConnellyPresented paper, "A Theoretical Framework for Understandingthe Effect of Birth Cohort Size on Earnings." PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Boston,March 1985.Lisa G. Cope(with Karen O. Mason and Barbara Laslett). Sources of Ageand Birthdate Misreporting in the 1900 U. S. Census.Demography24(4):563-573 (November 1987). Alsoappeared as PSC Research Report No. 85-74,1985.Deborah DeGraff(with James F. Phillips. Ruth Simmons, and J. Chakraborty).Integrating Health Services into an MCH-FP Program inMatlab, Bangladesh: An Analytical Update. Studies inFamily Planning 17(5): 228-234 (September/October 1986).(with Hasina Banu, James F. Phillips, and Michael A.Koenig). Baseline Social, Economic and DemographicDifferentials in Contraceptive Behavior in Study andComparison Areas of the MCH-FP Extension Project. Tobe published in Bangladesh.Juan Diez-MedranoReflexiones teoricas sobre la evolucion de la ilegitimidad enEuropa (1945-1948). Revista Espanola de InvestigacionesSociologicas, July-September 1984, No. 27, pp. 79-106.Mark Langberg(with Reynolds Farley). Residential Segregation of Asian-Americans in 1980. Sociology & Social Research 70(l):7l-75."Thomas LeGrandPresented paper (with others). "The Effect of Maternal andChild Health Interventions on Infant and Child Survivalin Matlab, Bangladesh," Population Assocation ofAmerica annual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Deborah LevisonParticipant, Workshop on "The Economic Consequences ofRapid Population Growth," 1985 Summer Seminar inPopulation, East-West Population Institute, Hawaii.Hui-Sheng LinPresented paper, "Premarital Sex and Premarital Pregnancyin Taiwan. Population Association of America annualmeetings, Chicago, April 1987.(with others). Implications for Adolescent Sex Education inTaiwan. Studies in Family Planning 17(4):181-187 (July/August 1986).Jinyun Liu(with others). The Urban Family of China. Jinan City, PRC:The Press of ShanDong Province, 1985.Nilufer HayatPresented paper, "Rural Household Production and theSexual Division of Labor: A Research Framework."Middle East Studies Association of North America annualmeetings, Boston, November 1986.Presented Brown Bag Seminar, "Female Status and Fertility:Theoretical and Empirical Considerations." PopulationStudies Center, University of Michigan, September 1986.Presented Brown Bag Seminar, "Women's ProductiveActivities in Rural Turkey: A Theoretical Framework andEthnographic Evidence." Center for Near Eastern andNorth African Studies, University of Michigan, Winter1987.Genevieve M. KenneyWelfare Implications of Oligopoly in U. S. Food Manufacturing:Comment. American journal of Agricultural Economics67(1): 144-145.Presented paper, "The Security Demand for Children inPeninsular Malaysia," Population Association of Americaannual meetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Anju Malhotra TajPresented paper (with Karen O. Mason), "Gender Differencesin Reproductive Orientation: A Review of ExistingKnowledge for Developing Countries." PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, San Francisco,April 1986.Robert WilgerPresented paper, "Regional Differences in Black/WhiteResidential Segregation: The Effects of Post-1970 Housing."Population Association of America annual meetings,Chicago, April 1987.Rebeca WongPresented paper, "Socioeconomic Determinants of ContraceptiveUse in Rural Mexico: How Much Does the Desirefor a Conception Matter?" Fifth Congress of the WorldFederation of Public Health Associations, Mexico City,March 1987.24 Population Studies Center

STUDENT FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDSAbdallah Abdel-Aziz: AMIDEAST Fellowship, 1987-88Cynthia Buckley: Mellon Fellowship for study at theUniversity of Bucharest, Summer 1987.Alicia Cackley: Internship, International Labor Office,Geneva, Falll 987.Jui-shan Chang: Population Council Fellowship, 1987-88.Seung Hun Chun: Fellowship, Republic of Korea, Winter1987.Rachel Connelly: DorothyS. Thomas Award, PopulationAssociation of America, for dissertation essay, 1985.Deborah DeGraff: Internship, International Labor Office,Geneva, Switzerland, Fall 1986; Internship, InternationalCentre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh,Fall 1986.Nilufer Hayat: Population Council Fellowship, 1986-87.Mark Langberg: Rackham dissertation award, Fall 1984.Deborah Levison: Fellowship, 1985 Summer Seminar inPopulation, East-West Population Institute, Hawaii.Hui-Sheng Lin: Social Science Fellowship for AdvancedStudies Abroad, Executive Yuan, Research Developmentand Evaluation Commission, Taiwan Republic of China.Shiu-yun Lin: Social Science Fellowship for AdvancedStudies Abroad, Executive Yuan, Research Developmentand Evaluation Commission, Taiwan Republic of China.Ibrahim K. Osheba: Middle East Award, PopulationCouncil, 1986-87.Karin Ringheim: Continuing Education for WomenScholarship, 1986-87; University of Michigan AlumniScholarship, 1987-88Anju Malhotra Taj: Population Council Fellowship,1986-87.Wang Feng: Fellowship, Rockefeller Foundation,1986-87.Rebeca Wong: Population Council Fellowship, 1985-86;Visiting Fellow, Center for Population Studies, HarvardUniversity, 1986-87.COURSES IN DEMOGRAPHYMembers of the Center's professional staff also serve on the faculty of either the Department of Sociology or theDepartment of Economics. Their instructional responsibilities include teaching the following graduate courses.Center students in sociology are required to take a course in population studies every semester in which they areenrolled until they achieve candidacy. Additional courses given by faculty connected with the Population StudiesCenter include statistics, methodology, social change, social stratification, family sociology, and gender roles.rSociology 530 - Population Problems. Offered annually.An intensive analysis of the basic demographicprocesses and their causes: how variations in mortality,fertility, nuptiality and migration arise and howthey affect society. Illustrations are drawn from theUnited States and a variety of developed and develop 1ing countries.1Snowcomes to the University of Michigan campus in December.Sociology 531 - Regional Population Problems.Offered periodically. This course focuses on the populationaspects of social problems—food, energy, pollution,etc.—the role of population variables in theproblems of social development, and social policiesthat are concerned with the population aspects of theseproblems. It considers these issues in the context ofspecific countries representing a range of demographicsituations.Training 25

COURSES (Cont'd.)Sociology 535 - The Urban Community. Offered occasionally.A descriptive study of the form and developmentof the urban community with respect to demographicstructure, spatial and temporal patterns andfunctional organization. Attention is given to the datasources and analytic techniques appropriate to thestudy of population distribution and migration.Sociology 536 • Human Ecology and Social Organization.Offered occasionally. Deals with the forms andmodes of change of social structure as affected byinteractions with the environment and population.Sociology 595. Special Topics in Population:Migration and Urbanization. Offered periodically.This course examines the major substantive areas ofmigration research and the relationship betweenmigration and urbanization, drawing from thedemographic, sociological, and geographic literature.It also introduces students to the methods of analysisand data that can be used to examine the migrationcomponent of population change.Sociology of Fertility. Offered periodically. Thiscourse examines major theories and controversiesabout the fertility transition and considers therelevant evidence. Both historical transitions in theWest and contemporary transitions in developingcountries are considered.Sociology 633 - Proseminar in Historical Demography.Offered periodically. A survey of the data sourcesand the methods of data organization and analysispeculiar to historical demographic research along withselected substantive topics.Sociology 830,831 - Seminars in Population andHuman Ecology. Offered periodically. A variety ofsubstantive and methodological topics are taken up inseminar format.Economics 466 - Economics of Population. Offeredannually. Analysis of the causes and effects of populationchanges from the standpoint of economic theory.Economics 667 - The Economics of PopulationGrowth. Offered annually. Examines the economicdeterminants of demographic behavior, emphasizingfertility, and the effects of demographic change in bothdeveloped and less developed countries. The economicaspects of population policy and family planningprograms are explored also.Economics 867, 868 - Seminar in the Economics ofPopulation. Offered annually. A seminar covering avariety of topics in the form of (1) a detailed discussionof an important recent article or series of articles; (2)presentation of research plans or findings by traineesor faculty members; (3) presentation of research resultsby a visitor.Sociology 630 - Research Methods in Population andHuman Ecology. Offered annually. An examination ofthe nature and structure of a large number of demographictechniques useful for studying populationcomposition or analyzing population dynamics.Involves both review of literature and computationsusing the techniques. Topics include life table construction,period and cohort rates, and stable populationmodels. The course involves both review ofliterature and computations using the techniques.Sociology 631, 63? - Advanced Population Methods:Indirect Estimation Techniques. Offered periodically.The methods used to detect and correct for the kinds oferrors found in many data from developing countries,including methods by Brass, Preston, and Coale, areexamined. Occasionally other kinds of advancedmethods are emphasized.John Miller and Shubha Ghosh26 Population Studies Center

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIESThe staff of the Population Studies Center has a history of service to the University, professional organizations,and national and international agencies. Many of the activities of staff members aid in the development of the fieldof population studies; other efforts influence public policy decisions related to population issues or aid in theevaluation of programs. Staff members are often called upon to present papers and serve as discussants at variousconferences and colloquia. They may serve on task forces and commissions and as consultants to the federalgovernment, private organizations, international agencies, and program administrators in developing countries.Demographic expertise is also called for in the development of University programs and policies. Some of themajor professional and public service activities of the Center staff during the last three years are listed below.Barbara A. AndersonAssociate Director for Training, Population StudiesCenter 1986-.Member, Board of Directors, Population Association ofAmerica, 1983-1985.Member, Research Team, The Soviet Interview Project.Member, Executive Committee, Social Science HistoryAssociation.Faculty Associate, Center for Russian and East EuropeanStudies, University of Michigan.Chair, session on "Demography of Eastern Europe andthe USSR," Population Association of Americaannual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper (with Brian D. Silver), "Politics ofLanguage and Patterns of Language Change in theUSSR," for seminar series, The Nationality Factor inSoviet Society and Politics: Current Trends andFuture Prospects, Russian Research Center, HarvardUniversity, February 1986.Presented paper (with Michael R. Haines), "The Studyof Fertility from the 1900 U. S. Census," Soviet-American Conference on Quantitative History, NewOrleans, December 1986.Presented paper (with Brian D. Silver), "The Effects ofWorld War II on the Non-Russian Population of theSoviet Union," Soviet-American Conference on theEffects of World War II on the United States and theSoviet Union, Washington, September 1986.Presented paper, "Work Among Soviets of RetirementAge in the Soviet Union," Conference at the U. S.Department of State, November 1986.Reynolds FarleyPresident-Elect, Population Association of America,1987.Member, Executive Committee, National Committeefor Research on the 1980 Census.Senior Research Consultant, Committee on the Statusof Black Americans, National Academy of Sciences.Program Chair, Social Statistics Section, AmericanStatistical Association annual meetings, Philadelphia,1987.Chair, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan,1986-87.Professional Activities 27

Reynolds Farley (Cont'd.)Member, Social Science Research Council, Subcommitteeon the Survey of Income and Program Participation.Presentation, "Race Relations in the Detroit Area — AnHistorical Perspective and Current Differences,"Detroit Strategic Planning Project, Conference onRace Relations, July 1987.Presented paper (with Michael J. Levin), "Ancestry,Birthplace, Race, and Language from the 1980Census: Who's Who Among Asians and PacificIslanders?" Population Association of Americaannual meetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Presented report On Racial Trends and Differential inMortality: 1940 to 1984, to the National Academy ofSciences' Committee on the Status of Black Americans,March 1986.Deborah FreedmanVisiting Fellow, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu, Winter 1985,1986, and1987.Visitor, Family Planning Programs, Kenya, April 1987.Discussant, IUSSP Conference on "Societal Influenceson Family Planning Program Performance," Jamaica,April 1985.Presented talk, "The Use of Life-Calendar Techniquefor Obtaining Retrospective Data in Surveys," East-West Population Institute, March 1985.Presented talk, "The Potential for Using a Life-CalendarTechnique in Taiwan," Taiwan ProvincialInstitute of Family Planning, March 1985.Consultant, Demographic and Health Surveys,Westinghouse Public Applied Systems, 1985.Chair, session on "Marriage Patterns in LDCs," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings,Boston, March 1985.Ronald FreedmanAlbert Einstein Visiting Fellow, The Hebrew Universityof Jerusalem, March-June 1987.Visiting Fellow, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu, Winter 1985,1986, and1987.Member, Committee on Population, National Academyof Sciences.Ronald Freedman (Cont'd.)Member, Advisory Committee, Program in PopulationSciences, The Rockefeller Foundation.Chair, Scientific Advisory Committee, Demographicand Health Surveys.Occasional consultant to World Bank, U. S. Agency forInternational Development, Taiwan ProvincialInstitute for Family Planning, State Family PlanningCommission of People's Republic of China, and theHewlett, Ford, and Rockefeller Foundations.Presented papers and participated in conferences andseminars as follows: Population Association ofAmerica annual meetings, San Francisco, 1986;Conference on One-per-Thousand Survey, 1985;Beijing, 1985; Rockefeller Foundation Conference onProgram Effort and Performance of Family PlanningPrograms, Bangkok, Thailand, February 1986, andin Chiang Mai, Thailand, Feburary 1987; NationalAcademy of Sciences and USAID, Washington, DC,1987; IUSSP, Jamaica, 1985, and Honolulu, 1987;U. S. Department of State, Washington, DC, 1986and 1987.William H. FreyRecipient, Undergraduate Teaching Initiatives Award,University of Michigan, 1987.Member, Committee on Migration Statistics, PopulationAssociation of America, 1987.Member, Program Committee, Sociology of PopulationSection, American Sociological Association, 1985-86Presented paper, "Migration and Metropolitan PopulationChange: A Cross-National Comparision,"International Conference on Urbanization andUrban Population Problems, Nankai University,Tianjin, People's Republic of China. October 26-31,1987.Presented paper, "Will the Turnaround' Turn Aroundfor Large Metropolitan Areas?," Association ofAmerican Geographers annual meeting, Portland,April 1987.Presented paper, "Lifecourse Migration and Redistributionof the Elderly Across U.S. Regions, MetropolitanAreas, and Central Cities," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, SanFrancisco, April 1986.Speaker, Census Analysis Workshop: Migration Dataand Trends, University of Wisconsin-Madison,October 1985.28 Population Studies Center

William H. Frey (Cont'd.)Presented paper, "Migration and Projected MetropolitanDepopulation: Regional Restructuring or RuralRenaissance?" North American Meeting, RegionalScience Association, Philadelphia, November 1985.Presented paper, "Lifecourse Migration and PopulationRedistribution: Will Blacks, Again, Be Left Behind?"Southern Regional Demographic Group annualmeetings, Austin, Texas, October 1985.Chair, session on "Internal Migration and RegionalDevelopment in Developed Countries," Seminar onInternal Migration and Regional Development.Committee on Internal Migration of theInternational Union for the Scientific Study ofPopulation, Montreal, Canada, April 1985.Chair, session on "Theory and Concepts in Migrationand Regional Population Distribution," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Boston,March 1985.Albert I. Hermalin (Cont'd.)Consultant, United Nations Population Division.Member, Board of Directors, Alan Guttmacher Institute,1984-.Member, Scientific Advisory Committee, Alan GuttmacherInstitute, 1984-.Member, Public Affairs Committee, Population Associationof America, 1979-present.Member, International Advisory Board, Studies inFamily Planning.Member, Blue Ribbon Commission, School of Literature,Science and the Arts, University of Michigan,to investigate demographic and curricular issuesfacing the college in the coming decade.Barbara HirshornPresented paper, "The Effect of Parental Co-residencyon Workforce Participation Rates of 55-69 YearsOlds: A Multivariate Model," National Center forHealth Service Research, Washington, DC, June1987.Presented paper, "The Demography of Aging: CurriculaContent and Direction," Population Associationof America annual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper, "The Intergenerational Transfer ofSocial Resources: Interdependence of Divisiveness?"1987 Geriatric Teaching Day, State Universityof New York Clinical Campus, Binghamton,April 1987.Presented paper, "The Interdependence of Generationsin an Aging Society: The Family Context," 1986Governor's Conference on Aging, Flint, Michigan,September 1986.Albert I. HermalinDirector, Population Studies Center, University ofMichigan, 1977-1987.Chair, Committee on Population, National ResearchCouncil, National Academy of Sciences, andMember, Working Group on Family PlanningEffectiveness.Chair, Advisory Committee to the Demographic andBehavioral Sciences Branch of NICHD, 1986-87.Albert I, HermalinMember, Research Policies Committee, University ofMichigan, 1984-86.Consultant, Demographic and Health Surveys Project,Westinghouse Public Appliance Systems, 1984-.Chairman, Committee on Educational Policy, Departmentof Sociology, 1985-.Discussant, session on Policies Other than FamilyPlanning to Affect Fertility. Population Associationof America annual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented seminar, "Individual and CommunityInfluences on Fertility," Indiana University, April1987.Presented "Overview of Population Trends," a descriptionof the field and current trends for U-M alumni,University Seminar, March 1987.Professional Activities 29

Albert I. Hermalin (Cont'd.)Presented paper (with Barbara Entwisle), "MultilevelApproaches to Family Planning Program Evaluation,"Population Association of America annualmeetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Presented seminar, "Multilevel Effects on Fertility andFamily Planning in Costa Rica," University ofPennsylvania, October 31,1986.Chair, session on Topics in U.S. Fertility; discussant,luncheon roundtable, "Demography and Sociology:Can the Links be Strengthened?" PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Boston,March 1985.Sherrie KossoudjiDiscussant, session on Migration and Urbanization inNorth America, Population Association of Americaannual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper, "The Impact of English LanguageAbility on the Labor Market Opportunities ofImmigrant Men," Population Association of Americaannual meetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Presented paper (with Susan Ranney), "Legal Statusand Wage Rates for Mexican Migrants in the U. S.,"Population Association of America annual meetings,San Francisco, April 1986.John KnodelConsultant, Family Health International; InternationalScience and Technology Institute; Institute forResource Development; Population Council.Member, Working Group on the Health Consequencesof Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility,Committee on Population, National Academy ofSciences.David A. LamMember, Executive Committee, Department of Economics,University of Michigan, 1986-87.Member, Dorothy Thomas Award Committee, PopulationAssociation of America, 1986-1989.Reviewer, NICHD Research Proposals, Special StudySection, National Institutes of Health.Referee: American Economic Review, Econometrica,Demography, Journal of Development Economics.Presented paper (with Jeffrey Miron), "The Seasonalityof Births in Historical Populations," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Chicago,April 1987.Organizer, session on Assortative Mating and MarriageMarkets, Population Association of America annualmeetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper (with Jeffrey A. Miron), "Weather,Fecundity, and the Seasonality of Births," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, SanFrancisco, April 1986.Discussant, session on "Economics of the Family,"Population Association of America annual meetings,San Francisco, April 1986.Coordinator, East-West Population Institute, Workshopon Economic Consequences of Rapid PopulationGrowth, Honolulu, June 1985.Organizer, session on Recent Innovations in ModelingEconomic-Demographic Interactions, PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Boston,March 1985.Visiting Researcher, Institute of Population Studies,Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand,January-April 1986, January-February and May-July 1987.Member, IUSSP Committee on Historical Demography.Presentation, "Two Centuries of Infant, Child, andMaternal Mortality in German Village Populationsin the 18th and 19th Centuries," InternationalConference on "Society, Health and PopulationDuring the Demographic Transition," at UMEAUniversity, UMEA, Sweden, August 18-21,1986.Presented briefing, 'Thailand's Demographic Situation,"USAID Mission, Bangkok, January 1987.William Frey (center) meets formerstudentsPaul Cheung andYat-fAing Siu before a conference in Beijing.30 Population Studies Center

William R. LavelyCo-organizer (with James Lee, Department of History,California Institute of Technology) of a Workshop inQing Population History, sponsored and funded bythe Joint Committee on Contemporary China of theACLS/SSRC, to be held at Caltech, August 1985.Karen Oppenheim MasonMember, Board of Directors, Population Association ofAmerica, 1986-1988.Member, Curriculum, College of Literature, Science,and the Arts, University of Michigan, 1987-1989.Associate Director for Training, Population StudiesCenter, 1980-1986.Member, Executive Board, Rackham School of GraduateStudies, 1985-1988.Member, Panel of Cognates, University GrievanceSystem, 1984-1988.Parent Orientation Leader, University Office of Orientation,1984 and 1985.Consultant, Research Program on the Status of Womenand Fertility, The Rockefeller Foundation, 1984-.Consultant, Demographic and Health Surveys,Westinghouse Overseas Service Corporation, 1985-.Editorial Advisory Board, Contemporary Sociology,1983-85.Member, Board of Overseers, NORC General SocialSurvey, 1983-86.Member, Advisory Board, Committee on GenderResearch, University of Michigan.Editorial consultant, Demography, American SociologicalReview, American Journal of Sociology, and AcademicPress.Consultant, National Family and Household Survey,University of Wisconsin.Discussant, session on "The Life Course," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Chicago,April 1987.Presented paper, "The Impact of Child Care Availabilityon Women's Labor Force and Fertility Plans,"Population Association of America annual meetings,Chicago, April 1987.Karen Oppenheim Mason (Cont'd.)Presented paper (with Anju Malhotra Taj), "GenderDifferences in Reproductive Orientation: A Reviewof Existing Knowledge for Developing Countries,"Population Association of America annual meetings,San Francisco, April 1986.Participant, Workshop on Women's Status and Fertility,Sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation,Mount Kisco, New York, June 1985.William M. MasonDirector, Population Studies Center, The University ofMichigan 1987-.Member, Executive Committee, Computing Center,University of Michigan, 1980-1986.Member, Executive Committee, Sociology Department,University of Michigan, 1983-1985.Member, Board of Directors, Research Network andData Center for the Income Survey DevelopmentProgram (ISDP) and Survey of Income and ProgramParticipation (SIPP), 1984-.Presentations, "You Can't Do That!", Thematic Sessionon Cross-National Research in Demography, and"Didactic Seminar on Quantitative Multi-levelMethods for Comparative and Contextual Analysis,"American Sociological Association annualmeetings, Chicago, August 1987.Presentation, "An Overview of the Michigan ComparativeFertility Project," Sociology Department,University of California-San Diego, October 1986.Presented shortcourse, "Contextual and MultilevelAnalysis," Inter-University Consortium of Politicaland Social Research, University of Michigan, June1986,1987.Presented shortcourse, "Refresher Course in QuantitativeAnalysis," American Sociological Associationannual meetings, Washington, August 1985.Presented paper, "Socioeconomic Differentials in EarlyFertility: A Comparative Analysis of 31 WFSCountries," American Sociological Associationannual meetings, Washington, August 1985.Presentation, "The Theory, Findings and Methods ofthe Michigan Comparative Fertility Project," BrownUniversity, Population Studies and Training Center,March 1985.Professional Activities 31

William M. Mason (Cont'd.)Presented paper, "What Has Been Learned from theWorld Fertility Survey About the Effects of SocioeconomicPosition on Reproductive Behavior?" and"Cross-National Variability in Age at First Birth:Theory and Evidence," Population Association ofAmerica annual meetings, Boston, March 1985.Eva L. MuellerMember, Rackham Divisional Board, Horace H.Rackham School of Graduate Studies, University ofMichigan.Member, National Academy of Sciences WorkingGroup on Economic Consequences of High Fertilityin LDCs.Member, Fellowship Selection Committee, PopulationCouncil.Member, Development and Communications AdvisoryCommittee, University of Michigan.Recipient, Academic Women's Caucus Award, Universityof Michigan, January 1987.Chair, session on "Migration and Economic Development:I." Population Association of America annualmeetings, Chicago, April 1987.Chair, session on "Security Motives for High Fertility,"Population Association of America annual meetings,San Francisco, April 1986.Discussant, session on "Consequences of DemographicChange," Population Association of America annualmeetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Allen SchirmPresented paper, "Characterizing Agents, MatchQuality, and Equilibrium Sortings: What Can BeLearned from Matching Models About CorrelationsBetween Spouses' Traits?," Population Associationof America annual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper (with Samuel Preston), "CensusUndercount Adjustment and the Quality of GeographicPopulation Distributions," PopulationAssociation of America annual meetings, Boston,March 1985 and Joint Statistical Meetings, SanFrancisco, August 1987.Presented paper, "Assortativc Mating When IndividualsDiffer by Many Traits," Population Associationof America annual meetings, San Francisco, April1986.Arland ThorntonConsultant, National Family and Household Survey,University of Wisconsin, 1983-1985.Chair, Nominations Committee, Family Section,American Sociological AssociationMember, Contract Review Committee, Center forPopulation Research, National Institute of ChildHealth and Human Development.Presented paper (with H. S. Lin and M. L. Lee), "SocialChange, the Family and Well Being," Conference onEconomic Development and Social Welfare inTaiwan, Academia Sinica, 1987.Presented paper (with Thomas Fricke), "Social Changeand the Family: Comparative Perspectives fromEurope, China and South Asia," Population Associationof America annual meetings, Chicago, April1987.Presented paper, "Cross-National Research in Demography:The Importance of Family and Life CourseOrganization," American Sociological Associationannual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Chair, session on "Household Organization in DevelopingCountries," Population Association of Americaannual meetings, San Francisco, April 1986.Discussion leader, session on "Family StructureChange: Causes and Consequences," and member.Steering Committee, Workshop on DemographicChange and the Well-being of the Elderly, NationalAcademy of Sciences, 1985.Associate Editor, journal of Family Issues, 1984-.Maxine WeinsteinPresented paper (with Arland Thornton), "Mother-Child Relations and Adolescent Sexual Attitudesand Behavior," Population Association of Americaannual meetings, Chicago, April 1987.Presented paper (with James W. Wood), "A Model ofAge-Specific Fecundability," Population Associationof America annual meetings, San Francisco, April1986.James W. WoodPresented paper (with Maxine Weinstein), "A Model ofAge-Specific Fecundability," Population Associationof America annual meetings, San Francisco, April1986.32 Population Studies Center

FORfflER STUDENTSCenter trainees who have received PhDs in sociology or economics from the University of Michigan are listedbelow. The variety of institutions with which they arc affiliated gives an overview of the scope of preparationprovided at the Center.Nearly half of the total of 129 Center PhDs currently hold academic positions at colleges and universities in theUnited States; ten hold appointments at foreign universities. Several former students are employed in research forforeign governments and population organizations, and 13 are involved in research in international organizationsconcerned with population issues, such as the United Nations, the International Labor Organization, and thePopulation Council.Both business and government have recognized the importance of demographic research to policy making, andmore recent graduates are accepting non-academic positions both in the United States and abroad. Eight formerstudents are engaged in research and analysis for private businesses, and 16 are employed by U. S. governmentagencies. Seventeen are employed by private research organizations.In addition to the PhD recipients listed, many students from the U. S. and abroad have received shorter-termtraining at the Center. We appreciate hearing from all former students and welcome updated information.FormerPopulation Studies CenterTrainees with PhDs from the University of MichiganArjun L. Adlakha 1970Chief, Asia, Europe, NorthAmerica andOceania BranchCenter forInternational ResearchU.S.Bureauof theCensusWashington, DCNilu/cr Ahmed 1984AssistantProfessor (Sociology)University of WisconsinWaukesha, WisconsinJohnEllis Anderson 1974Demographer, Centersfor EnvironmentalHealthCentersfor DiseaseControlAtlanta, GeorgiaRichardB. Anker 1973Project DirectorWorldEmployment ProgramInternational Labor OrganizationGeneva, SwitzerlandFred Arnold 1972ResearchAssociateEast-WestPopulation InstituteHonolulu, HawaiiMakoto Nohara Atoh 1980Director, [Division of Human ReproductionInstituteofPopulation ProblemsTokyo,JapanErnest B.Attah 1980Associate Professor (Sociology)Atlanta UniversityAtlanta, GeorgiaTaltamangalamBala krishnan 1963Professor (Sociology)UniversityofWestern OntarioLondon, OntarioCanadaRoberta Bames 1977Research AssociateTheUrban InstituteIncomeSecurity and Pension PolicyWashington, DCJohn Bauer 1984AssistantProfessor (Economics)University of HawaiiAssociate, East-West Papulation InstituteHonolulu, HawaiiAllenBeck 1985StatisticianU.S.Departmentof JusticeBureau ofJustice StatisticsWashington, DCJaime Benavente 1987CommunitySystems FoundationAnn Arbor, MichiganFormer Students 33

Suzanne Bianchi 1978Sta ristkia n / DemographerU.S.Bureauofthe CensusWashington, DCGordon S. Bonham 1971Urban SystemsResearcherUrban StudiesCenterUniversity of LouisvilleLouisville, KentuckyRoger L.Brown 1982Project CoordinatorAmerican Medical AssociationChicago, IllinoisMarkBrowning 1982Manager of LoadForecastPotomacElectric Power CompanyWashington, DCHelge Brunborg 1983Deputy tothe ChiefSociodemographicResearchUnitCentralBureau of StatisticsOslo, NorwayLarry L Bumpass 1968Professor (Sociology) and Associate, CenterforDemography and EcologyUniversityofWisconsin - MadisonMadison,WisconsinCharles A. Calhoun 1983Research AssociateTheUrban InstituteWashington, DCFrederick L.Campbell 1967Professor (Sociology)UniversityofWashingtonSeattle, WashingtonJohn Casterline 1979Assistant Professor (Sociology)Brown UniversityProvidence, RhodeIslandJosephChamie 1976Chief, Population PolicySectionUnited NationsNew York, New YorkNapapornChayovan 1982Assistant ProfessorInstituteofPopulation StudiesChulalongkornUniversityBangkok,ThailandLisa Gayle Cope 1986Institute for Survey ResearchTemple UniversityPhiladelphia, PennsylvaniaChoc Kim Loy 1981Senior Research FellowCentre for PolicyResearchUniversitySains MalaysiaPcnang, MalaysiaHsiao-Chang Chen 1974Demographer, Family Planning EvaluationDivisionCenter for DiseaseControlAtlanta,GeorgiaPaulP. L.Cheung 1983Director,Population Planning UnitMinistry of HealthRepublic ofSingaporeChin Yi Chu 1985Associate Professor (Economics)National Taiwan UniversityAssociate ResearcherInstitute ofEconomicsAcademiaSinicaTaiwanSolomonS.P. Chu 1969Scholl College ofPodiatricMedicineChicago, IllinoisCarolClark 1979Assistant Professor (Economics)Guilford CollegeGreensboro,North CarolinaMelissa H. Clark 1980Assistant Professor (Sociology)University of MississippiColumbus, MississippiDiane Colasanto 1977Survey MethodologistGallup Organization Inc.Princeton, New JerseyRachel Connelly 1985Assistant Professor (Economics)BowdoinCollegeBrunswick, MaineJames C Cramer 1975Associate Professor (Sociology)University ofCalifornia - DavisDavis, CaliforniaJohn Czajka 1979Senior SociologistMathematicaPolicyResearch, Inc.Washington, DCBarbaraDevaney 1977SeniorEconomistMathematicaPolicyResearch, Inc.Princeton,New JerseySusan De Vos 1982Research Associate, Center for Demographyand EcologyUniversityof Wisconsin—MadisonMadison, WisconsinHasan Zafer Dogan 1974Director, SchoolofTourismandHotel ManagementAydin, TurkeyBarry James Edmonston 1974Life Insurance Marketing andResearchAssociation InternationalHartford,ConnecticutEugene P. Ericksen 1971Head, Sampling DivisionInstitutefor SurveyResearchTemple UniversityPhiladelphia, PennsylvaniaMarkEvers 1974StatisticianGeneral Mills CorporationMinneapolis, MinnesotaMuhammadFaour 1983Assistant Professor (Sociology)AmericanUniversity of BeirutBeriut, LebanonRashid Faruquee 1975International Labour OrganizationGeneva,SwitzerlandDavid L. Featherman 1969Bascorn Professor (Sociology)and Director,Instituteon AgingUniversityofWisconsin — MadisonMadison, WisconsinAllan G. Feldt 1963Professor (Urban andRegional Planning,Natural ResourcesUniversityof MichiganAnnArbor, MichiganGreer L. Fox 1970DirectorChild andFamily StudiesCenterUniversityof Tennessee - KnoxvilleKnoxville,TennesseeThomasFraker 1981Senior EconomistMathematicaPolicyResearch, Inc.Washington, DCJudith L.Friedman 1970Associate Professor (Human Ecology)CookCollege,RutgersUniversityNew Brunswick, New JerseySamuel R. Friedman 1970Project DirectorNarcotic andDrugResearch Inc.New York, New YorkJanetGerson 1981Lecturer (Economics)Universityof MichiganAnnArbor, MichiganJohn Leroy Goodman 1974Division ofResearchandStatisticsFederalReserveBoardWashington, DCPatricia A.Gwartney-Gibbs 1981Assistant Professor (Sociology)Universityof OregonEugene, Oregon34 Population Studies Center

Sherrie KossoudjiKennethP. Haddcn 1972Department of Rural SociologyUniversityof ConnecticutStorrs,ConnecticutRobert M. Hauser 1968Vilas Professor (Sociology) and Director,Center for Demography andEcologyUniversityof WisconsinMadison,WisconsinMartha S. Hill 1977Associate Research CenterInstitutefor SocialResearchUniversityof MichiganAnn Arbor, MichiganPaulM. Hirsch 1973Associate Professor (Sociology)andGraduateSchool of BusinessUniversityof ChicagoChicago,IllinoisHoward M. lams 1973StatisticianOfficeofResearch, Statisticsand InternationalPolicySocial SecurityAdministrationWashington, DCAnrudh K.Jain 1968SeniorAssociate andDeputyDirectorInternational ProgramsThe Population CouncilNew York, New YorkGeorge K.Jarvis 1972Associate Professor (Sociology)University of AlbertaAlberta, OntarioCanadaEric Jensen 1981Assistant Professor (Economics)William and MaryCollegeWilliamsburg, VirginiaAllan G.Johnson 1972Associate Professor (Economics)Connecticut College for WomenWestHartford,ConnecticutRobert A.Johnson 1979Statistical Methods DivisionU.S.BureauoftheCensusWashington, DCVasantha Kandiah 1980Population Affairs OfficerUnited Nations, Population DivisionNew York, NewYorkJoanR. Kahn 1985Assistant ProfessorUniversityof MarylandBethesda,MarylandGenevieve Kenney 1986Research AssociateThe UrbanInstituteWashington, DCIk Ki Kim 1984Assistant Professor (Sociology)Dongguk UniversitySeoul, KoreaCharles R. Kinderman 1969AssociateDirectorBureauof Justice StatisticsU.S. Department of JusticeWashington, DCHallieKintner 1982Senior Research ScientistSocietal Analysis DepartmentGeneralMotorsCorporationWarren, MichiganRobertKlein 1978StatisticianStatistical Review and AnalysisDivisionVeterans AdministrationWashington, DCRobertKleinbaum 1982SeniorResearchScientistMarket and Product PlanningGeneral Motors ResearchLaboratoriesDetroit, MichiganSherrie Kossoudji 1983AssistantProfessor (Economics and SocialWork)Universityof MichiganAnn Arbor, MichiganKarolKrotki 1984DemographerCELADESanJose, Costa RicaRaymond Langsten 1960Consultant,Family Health InternationalFaculty, American UniversityCairo, EgyptRobertLapham 1970Director,DemographicandHealthSurveysWestinghouse PublicApplied SystemsWashington, DCMarkLangberg 1986Financial Aid AnalystOffice ofthe PresidentUniversity ofCaliforniaBerkeley, CaliforniaWilliam R. Lavely 1982Assistant Professor (Sociology)Henry M.Jackson Schoolof InternationalStudiesUniversity of WashingtonSeattle, WashingtonRex Y.Leghorn 1977Investment AnalystInternational MonetaryFundJapanPaul K.C Liu 1973Research Fellowand Director,InstituteofEconomicsAcademia SinicaTaiwanKathy LondonStatisticianMarriage and Divorce StatisticsNationalCenter for Health StatisticsHyattsville,MarylandAndrea LongAT&TBell LaboratoriesHolmdel, New JerseyMaurice M. MacDonaldProfessor (Sociology)and Associate, Center for Demography andEcologyUniversityofWisconsin - MadisonMadison, WisconsinJennifer MadansDeputy Director, Division of AnalysisNationalCenter forHealth StatisticsHyattsville, MarylandAlbert M. MarckwardtConsultanton SurveyAnalysisU.S. Agencyfor International DevelopmentLima,Peru19831980197319771968Robert Mare1977Professor (Sociology)and Associate, Center forDemography andEcologyUniversity of Wisconsin - MadisonMadison, WisconsinElizabethFischerMartinResearch AssociateBureauofSocial Science ResearchWashington, DCAndrew MasonAssociate DirectorEast - West Population InstituteHonolulu, Hawai19741975Former Students 35

Kd Matsushita 1985Research AssociateDivision ofHuman Reproduction -Institute ofPopulation ProblemsTokyo,JapanDavidD. McFarland 1971Professor (Sociology)University of California - Los AngelesLosAngeles, CaliforniaSara Millman 1982Assistant Professor (Sociology)Brown UniversityProvidenoe, Rhode IslandThomas McDevitt 1977International StatisticalPrograms Center - TrainingBranchU. S.Bureauof theCensusWashington, DCMarkMontgomery 1982Assistant Professor (Economics)Associate, OfficeofPopulation ResearchPrincetonUniversityPrinceton, New JerseyKrishnan Namboodiri 1962Lazarus Professor ofPopulation StudiesOhio State UniversityColumbus, OhioMargaret O.Nielsen 1977Assistant Professor (Social Work)Schoolof Social WorkMichigan State UniversityEast Lansing, MichiganOsman Elhassan M. Nur 1981Assistant ProfessorKingSaudUniversityRiyadh, Saudi ArabiaJames F. Phillips 1980AssociateCenter forPolicy StudiesThe Population CouncilNew York, New YorkWilliam S.Pooler 1968Associate Professor (Sociology)Syracuse UniversityIthaca, NewYorkWilliamF.Pratt 1965Chief,Family Growth Survey BranchDivision of Vital StatisticsNationalCenter for Health StatisticsHyattsville,MarylandToniRichards 1980SocialScientistBehavioral Sciences DivisionRand CorporationSantaMonica, CaliforniaShea O. Rutstein 1971AssociateDemographic andHealthSurveysWestinghouse PublicApplied SystemsWashington, DCPatridaFerman Ryan 1968Professor (Sociology)Eastern Michigan UniversityYpsilanti,MichiganAllan Schnaiberg 1968Professor (Sociology)Northwestern UniversityEvanston,IllinoisJudith Seltzer 1981Assistant Professor (Sociology)University of Wisconsin -MadisonMadison, WisconsinLois B. Shaw 1973EconomistU.S. General Accounting OfficeWashington, DCKathleen Short 1984StatisticianU.S.BureauoftheCensusWashington, DCMohammadK. Siddiqui 1978StatisticianUnitedNations Economic and SocialCommissionfor AsiaandthePacificBangkok,ThailandNelson Do Valle Suva 1978DirectprDepartment ofPopulation StudiesBrazilian Census BureauRio de Janeiro, BrazilWilliam Smit 1964Professor (Sociology)CalvinCollegeGrandRapids, MichiganHerbert L. Smith 1981Assistant Professor (Sodology)Universityof PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia, PennsylvaniaStanley Smith 1976Associate Professor (Economics)University of FloridaGainesville,FloridaAlden Speare 1969Professor (Sociology)Brown UniversityProvidence,Rhode IslandKodagallanur Srikantan 1967Gokhale InstituteofPoliticsandEconomicsPoona,IndiaJay I.Stark 1969Director, OverseasSalesAnalysisGeneral MotorsCorporationDetroit, MichiganRossStolzenberg 1973Vice President -ResearchGraduate Management Admission CouncilSanta Monica, CaliforniaTe-Hsiung Sun 1968DeputyChairmanResearch, Development and Evaluation CommissionExecutiveYuanTaipei,TaiwanLinda Swanson 1982Sociologist/DemographerU. S. Department of AgricultureWashington, DCJames A. Sweet 1968Professor (Sociology)andAssociate, Centerfor Demography and EcologyUniversity of Wisconsin -MadisonMadison, WisconsinDavidS. Thompson 1980Engineer, National Accounts Division, IBMWestHartford,ConnecticutArland Thornton 1975Associate Professor (Sociology)Senior Study Director, SurveyResearchCenterAssociate, PopulationStudiesCenterUniversity of MichiganAnn Arbor, MichiganTin-Yu Ting 1963Associate Professor (Sodology)National Chengchi UniversityTaipei, TaiwanRoy C. Tread way 1967Associate Professor (Sociology)Illinois State UniversityChicago,IllinoisBoone A.Turchi 1973Associate Professor (Economics)University ofNorth CarolinaCharlotte, North CarolinaLois Verbrugge 1974Associate Research ScientistInstituteofGerontologyUniversity of MichiganAnnArbor, MichiganTe-Hsiung Sun36 Population Studies Center

PaulRonald Voss 1975Associate ScientistDepartment of Rural SociologyUniversity of Wisconsin - MadisonMadison,WisconsinWang Feng 1987Post-doctoral FellowGraduate Group in DemographyUniversityof California - BerkeleyBerkeley, CaliforniaLinda Waite 1976Social ScientistBehavioral Sciences DivisionRand CorporationSantaMonica, CaliforniaBruce L.Warren 1970Director for Research and Program DevelopmentInstitutefor the Studyof ChildrenandFamiliesEastern MichiganUniversityYpsilanti,MichiganSou-Pen Wei 1981Lecturer, Management InformationSystems DepartmentUniversity of ArizonaTucson, ArizonaEugene Won 1978MarketForecasting SupervisorSouthern California GasCompanyLosAngeles,CaliforniaRebeca Wong 1987Assistant Professor (Economics)DepartmentofPopulation DynamicsSchool ofHygiene and Public HealthJohnsHopkins UniversityBaltimore, MarylandRebeca WongFormer Students 37

Twenty-five Year/ al (hePopulation $tudie/ Center:Retro/peet and Pro/pectby Ronald FreedmanWhen the Population StudiesCenter was founded 25 years ago,we began with some basic principlesthat have been part of the life of theCenter ever since.We believed that research andteaching in the population fieldshould relate demographic processesto the social, economic, andcultural forces in which their causesand consequences were to be found.Demographic processes werealways central, but we wanted tostudy them inthe context of thesociety and the economy. Theseideas had their intellectual origins inhuman ecology, as conceptualizedby Roderick D. McKenzie and AmosH. Hawley.While we believed that demographyshould not be conceived toonarrowly, we wanted our programto be coherent and manageable.Therefore, for better or worse, wedecided not to try to be an umbrellaorganization covering all theUniversity disciplines and professionsin which population had somerole. This decision was made partlybecause of the intellectual problemsof linking such diverse interests andorientations. It was made at leastequally because we wanted to avoida large bureaucratic structure whichmight consume the energies of oursenior staff. We wanted to be acommunity of scholars, and thatwould have been difficult to attain ifour numbers and the supportingstaff were very large.Another basic principle was thatthe Center would not have a unified,predetermined researchprogram. Instead, our aim was tobring together first-rate scholars andstudents and to facilitate their work,whatever it might be. This did notresult in a random distribution ofwork, since clusters and continuitiesin research resulted from thedevelopment through interaction ofcommon collaborative interests anddata sets and other forms of stimulationand resource-sharing. Wedecided at an early point that wewould be concerned with populationissues in both developed anddeveloping countries. Our principalsource of funds inthe early years,the Ford Foundation, had primaryinterests in the Third World populationfield. However, Oscar Harkavy,the Director of Ford's PopulationDivision, agreed that we couldbe free to pursue our interestswherever they led, providing thisincluded substantial work in theThird World. It was not a problemto make that commitment, since wehad staff members interested inboth kinds of population issues. Wethought that the two directions ofwork would complement each otherand, in retrospect, we can say thatthey did. Methodologies developedin one area proved to be applicablewith modificationsto the other.Building a staff and a program,simultaneously carrying on agrowing teaching and researchprogram abroad and at home,turned out to be a taxing enterprise.It was enormously helpful that inthese early years the Ford Foundationgave us wide latitude in theallocation of funds and renegotiatedour grants upward repeatedly as wefound that growth was more rapidthan we had initially projected it tobe.Another basic principle was thatan integral part of trainingfor ourgraduate students was an apprenticeshipwith ongoing research ofthe faculty and research associates.We believedthat learning to doresearch should involve learning tomeet the unexpected — for example,the data that are internallyinconsistent, the computer programthat doesn't work properly, relationshipscontrary to the initial hypothesis,data that don't meet the assumptionsofthe statistical modelsused, to cite a few. It also shouldinvolve experiencing the tediumand frustrations as well as thesatisfactions and excitement that are38 Population Studies Center

an inevitable part of most systematicresearch of high quality. Theseimportant aspects of the researchprocess cannot be learned frombooks and lectures on how to doresearch, although such moreformal parts of the curriculumhave their place, too. Studentswho have had no previous researchexperience begin withroutine clerical-statistical tasks, butthe objective has always been tohave them understand howwhatever they do fits into theoverall research project.We were fortunate that in theearly days of the Center, Beverlyand Dudley Duncan joined thestaff, since they had worked withan apprenticeship system at theUniversity of Chicago. Theyhelped to set procedures andstandards for our emergingprogram.One consequence ofthe apprenticeshipprogram is that we havehad relatively few formal coursesin population, so that studentshave time for the apprenticeshipexperience. Not infrequently,students have earned the right tobe co-authors of publications onthe research in which they wereinvolved. After they have passedthe doctoral preliminary examinations,they are free to work on theirdissertations.The best evidence that the apprenticeshipsystem works is inreports from those who haveemployed our students that they"hit the ground running." Theyare said to require less in-servicetraining than students trainedmainly through formal coursework.We should not claim too much.We have been fortunate in attractingmany first-rate students, manyof whom, no doubt, would havedone well under almost anyprogram. Florence Nightingale isreported to have said "the firstduty of the hospital is to do thepatient no serious harm." Similarly,the first duty of the teacher to thestudent is to facilitate his developmentbut not to interfere too much.The high productivity of many ofour former students is principally attributableto their own creativity andeffort, but our program probablyhad some part in their development.The physical arrangements of theCenter facilities were and aresupportive of the apprenticeship andcollegial relationships we cherish.All of our students have had desksand other facilities in the same placeas the permanent staff. This hasfacilitated the informal interaction atBrown-Bags, twice-daily coffeehours, and various chance or intentionalencounters. An importantpart of the program has always beento provide the opportunity forstudents with first-class minds toeducate each other (and sometimestheir teachers, as well). When theCenter was started, the communityof social demographers, both in thedeveloped and less developedcountries, was small. One of ourobjectives was to train students for agrowing number of opportunities forsocial demographers in universities,governments, international agencies,foundations, and other institutionsboth at home and abroad. In thelast 25 years a world network ofsuch scholars and officials has beencreated, mainly through the trainingprograms of centers like ours,largely in the United States but alsoin some other developed countriesand more recently in the developingcountries, too.Men and women who have beentrained or taught at Michigan are asignificant part of that worldnetwork. In the early years ourwork abroad often helped toestablish institutions and programsand to train some of their potentialleaders. These days, in an increasingnumber of places, our staff serveas collaborators and consultants forinstitutions in many of which ourformer students have significantroles. This reversal in roles was ourobjective from the beginning. Itisrewarding that in many places theideal is becoming the reality.We could not hope to keep associatedwith us all of the excellentpeople who have been members ofthe faculty or research associates.The following names are onlyillustrative: Paul Demeny, DudleyDuncan, Beverly Duncan, Lee-JayCho, James Palmore, ChristopherLangford, Robert Potter, BarbaraRonald Freedman 39

Entwisle, Yuzuru Takeshita, WilliamLavely.The 25-year history of the Centercoincides with the major electronicrevolution in data processing,storage, and analysis. We began inthe heyday of IBM unit-recordequipment and the clanking ofponderous desk calculators andconsiderable tallying and calculations"by hand." Storage of IBMpunch cards was once a problem.Our passage through the rapidevolution of computers and peripheralequipment was less traumaticthan it might have been because ofthe stability of key staff memberswho knew both the subject matterand the machinery: Michael Cobleand Albert Anderson, who probablyhelped more staff members andstudents than any other two staffmembers. At an early stage wefought (and lost) a battle to have ourvery own computer. Those dayshave passed. Every student andstaff member has direct computeraccess at the Center and often athome as well. The wave of thefuture will probably link us ininteractive modes with people anddata around the world.Some features of our work aredistinctively associated with Michigan.For example, a number of ushave been involved from thebeginning of the Center in followingthe course of the demographictransition in Taiwan. Some of theleading figures in population workin Taiwan were trained at Michigan.Quite a number of our studentshave done dissertations on Taiwanand have had field experience there.We have a rich archive of Taiwandata whose collection we havehelped to shape from the early days,when fertility was high, to thepresent, when the NRR is below 1.0.In 1985, our colleagues and formerstudents in Taiwan completed thesixth in the time series of surveysthat have uniquely documented thecourse of demographic and socialrchange in Taiwan. Albert Hermalin,Director of the PSC for ten years,with interests in many countries,originally came to Michigan to workwith the Taiwan data. Our work inTaiwan has involved collaborationwith leading demographers therewho have been students andassociates here too: T. H. Sun, H. S.Lin, M. C. Chang, and K. C. Liu.PSC students and staff haveworked on the data from manyother countries and have oftenparticipated in the field work orprograms that were the basisfor thedata. These include: Bangladesh,Botswana, Brazil, Canada, CostaRica, Egypt, England, Germany,Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel,Japan, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia,Mexico, Nepal, Norway, thePeople's Republic of China, ThePhilippines, Taiwan — Republic ofChina, Thailand, Turkey.Michigan has been more stronglyassociated than some other centerswith research on fertility in LDCs,including family planning programs.This has been because someof us have regarded family planningprograms, where they exist, as partof the complex biosocial systemthatdetermines reproduction and,therefore, a necessary part of theNstudy of human fertility. This lineof work has inevitably led some ofus to an interest in what socialscience and demography couldcontribute to population policy,including family planning programs.Members of our staff wereassociated both with PresidentJohnson's Committee on Populationand Family Planning and theCommission on Population Growthand the American Future whichfollowed it. At least one member ofour staff has been a member of eachof the four Committees on Populationand Demography of the NationalAcademy of Sciences. AlbertHermalin serves as Chairman of thecurrent Committee. Members of ourstaff have servedas consultants onpopulation issues to many ThirdWorld countries. The list of agenciesfor which we have served asconsultants includes: the InternationalInstitute for PopulationStudies (Bombay), The Ford Foundation,The Hewlett Foundation,International Labour Office, MellonFoundation, The Rockefeller Foundation,UNESCO, United NationsEconomic and Social Commissionfor Asia and the Pacific, UnitedNations Fund for Population40 Population Studies Center

Activities, United Nations PopulationDivision, U.S. Agency forInternational Development, U.S.Department of Commerce, U.S.Department of Labor, U.S. Departmentof State, The World Bank,World Health Organization.Michigan has always beenstrongly associated with the useofsurvey data in population analysis.This is partly a result of the presenceat Michigan of the strongSurvey Research Center (SRC).Some members of our staff havelong been associated with the SRC.The first national survey of fertilityand family planning was done atMichigan in1955 and paved theway for similar studies both in theUnited States and abroad. TheDetroit Area Study, which hastrained many PSC and other studentsin survey research methods,was begun by a staff with strongpopulation interests. The continuing(25 year) longitudinal DetroitFamily Growth Study, recently ledby Arland Thornton and DeborahFreedman, had its first round as aDetroit Area Study under thedirection of David Goldberg andRonald Freedman about the time thePSC was founded.While survey work continues tobe important, PSC research is by nomeans limited to that genre. Fromthe beginning the "bread andbutter" sources for demographicwork —the census and registrationdata — have been utilized in muchof our research. The rapidly emergingmethods and resources ofhistorical demography were exploitedearlier in our history byRonald Lee, Paul Demeny, andmore recently by John Knodel. Theuse of life-history calendars andframeworks for survey work isgaining prominence among our staffin the work of Arland Thornton,Deborah Freedman, and KarenMason. Such less formal approachesas the focused interviewhave been used in a noteworthyway by John Knodel in his work onThailand.The work of the Center in anumber of LDCs led at a fairly earlypoint to the beginning of comparativework cooperatively with others.In the late 1960s and early 1970s,Baron Moots, Lolagene Coombs,and Ronald Freedman were membersofthe Organization of DemographicAssociates, a group of Asianand American scholars who tried tocompare studies on demographictopics not originally designed forcomparative purposes. Similarefforts to compare fertility surveyswere the basis for the early work ofthe IUSSP Comrnittee on the Com-parative Analysis of Fertility, inwhich members ofthe PSC staffplayed leading roles.It is consistent with this traditionand earlier work on the communitylevel that leadership in the developmentof formal models relatingmacro and micro-level data acrossregions, communities, and countriesshould have been exercised atMichigan by William Mason, AlbertHermalin, and Barbara Entwisle.While fertility research has beenan important form of work, therewas always research on the otherbasic demographic processes andproblems. More recently WilliamFrey has strengthened our work onmigration and urbanization. BarbaraAnderson has introduced workon the U.S.S.R. and strengthenedour capabilities in indirect estimation.Reynolds Farley has for manyyears led distinguished work on theblack population of the U.S.,as wellas on urbanization. Karen Masonhas worked on research on genderrelatedissues.From early in its history, theCenter has included economic aswell as social demographers,beginning with Ronald Lee and PaulDemeny. Eva Mueller and DeborahFreedman, who have been on theCenter staff for many years, willsoon be retiring. David Lam joinedthe staff several years ago. We havehad a succession of excellentgraduate students from the Departmentof Economics.An important element inthe developmentof the Center has been anexcellent supporting staff. Programmers,secretaries, librarians, researchand editorial assistants, andadministrative staff who haveworked for any sustained periodhave assimilated the high standardswhich have been the goal of theCenter.Research Associates and Post-Doctoral Fellows have played anRonald Freedman 41

important role in the research productivityof the Center. While theseare too numerous to list, 1 do wantto note Lolagene Coombs, who formany years was my principal collaboratorboth in research on U.S.fertility and on Taiwan's population.What of the future ofthe Center?A note of optimism for the nearterm is justified by the fact that theCenter is probably at a historicalhigh point in productivity, recognizedleadership in the field, and resources.I can make such a boldstatement without immodesty, sincethe achievements ofthe period from1972to 1987 have been made underthe leadership of Albert Hermalinand David Goldberg, following myretirement as Director. Since July1987, The Center has had anothercapable director, William Mason.The recognition of the status of theCenter by its peers is evident in therenewal in1986 of its major institutionalsupport grant from theNational Institute for Child Healthand Human Development, a renewalof the grant from the HewlettFoundation, and the substantialfunding of peer-reviewed grants to•members of the PSC staff.It is an intrinsic part of a centerlike ours thatthe research andteachingstaff are under heavy timepressures, especially in view of thetime and energy needed for traveland field work. The future strengthof the Center will depend on ourability to have enough highlyqualified personnel tomeet all of theCenter's obligations, especially forcontinuing interaction with studentsin residence.The basic principles and emphaseson which the Center wasfounded appear still tobe operatingand valid. We are likely tobe moreinvolved in cooperative work withcolleaguesat other institutionsathome and abroad, because thenetwork of people and the communicationsystems to make thispossible and the size of data setshave all been growing, in partthrough our efforts. Our owngrowing data archives are animportant resource for this growingworldwide network. The long-termfuture ofthe Center, as inthe past,depends on the quality of the staffand students, rather than on facilitiesand equipment. Resources willflow to excellent people working byhigh standards and with personalintegrity.The politics of population policyand frequent reports on populationmatters are day-to-day headlinesand media events that were definitelynot the case when the Centerbegan. These engage our emotionsand may affect funding and dataaccess in some areas in the nearfuture. My guess is thatthesepossible short-run problems will notprevail in the long run, becausesocial policies, whether liberal orconservative, whether federal orlocal, inevitably involve demographicparameters. Inthe long runthe cumulative result of the dailyfacts of birth, death, and migrationwill outweigh short-run politicalnews and will demand attention inour world of growing interdependence,across ideological lines.— Ronald FreedmanNovember 198742 Population Studies Center

R CELEBRATIONIn June1986, the Population Studies Center commemorated its 25th anniversary with a reunion in Ann Arbor.Over half of the Center's former students,staff, and faculty returnedto campus for a five day celebration whichincluded both formal and informal festivities. The scholarly aspect of the celebration was a symposium on populationresearch with substantial policy implications in which many of the Center's accomplished alumni participated.Symposium in Celebration of the Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of the Population Studies CenterJune 12-14,1986Frontiers of Social Demography and Population Policy:The Research AgendaFriday, June 13Session I - Fertility and NuptialityChair: Eva Mueller9:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m."Marriage and Childbearing Late in theDemographic Transition." Larry Bumpass,Department of Sociology, University ofWisconsin-Mad ison."Fertility Transition in Developing Societies:Research Priorities." John Casterline, Departmentof Sociology, Brown University.Other presenters: Charles Calhoun, The UrbanInstitute, on birth expectations, childreneverbom, and desired family size; MuhammadFaour, American University of Beirut, onrecent fertility trends in Lebanon; KathyLondon, National Center for Health Statistics,on changing patterns of children's involvementwith divorce; Sara Millman, Departmentof Sociology, Brown University, on insightsfrom collective goods theory for achieving asocially optimal level of childbearingDiscussants: Ronald Freedman, Department ofSociology, Population Studies Center,University of Michigan, and N. KrishnanNamboodiri, Department of Sociology, OhioState UniversityFriday, June 132:00 - 5:00 p.m.Session II - Migration and UrbanizationChair: William M. Mason"Regional and Metropolitan Growth andDecline in the United States: Charting theContents of Redistribution." William H. Frey,U-M, and Alden Speare, Department of Sodology,Brown University."How Large is Too Large? Implications of theOptimum City Size Literature for PopulationPolicy and Research." Mark Montgomery,Department of Economics and Office ofPopulation Research, Princeton University.Other presenters-. Allen Beck, U. S. Bureau ofJustice Statistics, on a macro-demographicapproach to migration; Paul K. C Liu,Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica,Taiwan, on urban growth and employmentrestructuring in Taiwan; Paul Voss, Departmentof Rural Sociology, University ofWisconsin - Madison, on applied migrationanalysesat the the Applied PopulationLaboratory at the University of WisconsinDiscussants: Barry Edmonston, Department ofSociology, University of Connecticut, andLinda Swanson, U. S. Department of AgricultureSaturday, June 149:00 a.m. -12:30 p.m.Session III - Socioeconomic-DemographicInteractionsChair: Deborah Freedman"The State of the Field and Prospects forResearch on on Interactions betweenEconomic and Demographic Factors." RonaldD. Lee, Graduate Group in Demography,University of California - Berkeley."Socioeconomic'DemographicInteractions inDeveloped Countries: Examples fromSociology and Economics." Linda J. Waiie,The Rand Corporation.Other presenters: PaulP. L. Cheung, Departmentof Sociology, National University ofSingapore; John Goodman, Division ofResearch and Statistics, Federal ReserveBoard; Arland Thornton, Institute for SocialResearch and Population Studies Center, U-M; Boone Turchi, Department of Economics,University of North CarolinaDiscussion leaders: Robert Kleinbaum, Divisionof Societal Analysis, General MotorsCorporation, and Herbert Smith, Departmentof Sociology, Indiana UniversityThe Twenty-Fifth Anniversary Celebration 43

On Monday, June 16, a workshop —The Demographic Transition in AsiaandItsImplications —focussed onvariations in the timing,degree, andrates of change in fertility andmortality levels in Asiaand developingcountries in otherregions, bycountry and within country.Formerstudents makingpresentationsincluded Makota Nohara Atoh, E. B.Attah, Muhammad Faour,Ik Ki Kim,and Osman Nur. Theydrew on theirresearch investigating the relative importanceofmajor factors,as wellastherelativemagnitutde andmajorchanges in theproximate determinantsof fertility andmortality. The panel,conductedby AlbertI. Hermalin, alsoexplored the consequencesof fertilitydeclines on development, governmentprograms, and social-structural andcultural institutions.Ron and Deborah Freedman and JohnCasterline look at Center memorabilia at theWelcoming Reception on June 12.Other occasions for returning alumstorenew friendships with formercolleagues and makenew friendsincluded luncheon roundtables atthe Michigan Union designedto berelevant tothe current research ofthe returning alumni. Topicsincluded theDemography of Aging,Demographic Analysis of HealthIssues,and the Creation and UseofProjections and Estimates.William M. Mason conducted ashortcourse on Contextual andMultilevelAnalysis onthemorningof Tuesday, June 17. The seminarpresented highlights from thesummerworkshopProfessor Masonhasoffered through the U-M ICPSR.BUI Mason conducts a workshopon multilevel analysis.iCenter staf and alumni fromabroador those conductingresearch onpopulation issues indeveloping countries met foraninformal workshop, "ForgingCollaborations in PopulationResearch,"onthe afternoonofJune 17 attheMichiganUnion.\V1Before leaving on Tuesday, the workshop groupposes for a group picture.44 Population Studies Center

Onthe beautiful summer evening ofJune13,Center staffhosted a reunionpicnic at the AmericanLegionGroundsinDexter, Michigan, forthe returningalums,former andpresent staff andstudents, friendsofthe Center,andtheir families. Over 200 people attended.MikeCoble and Ren Farleyexecutedthe biggest of all of thebarbecues forwhich they arenow trulyinternationally famous.Master chefs Coble and Farley at work.Fran Heitz and Roger Brown show off a PSCReunion T-shirt designed for the next generationof Center trainees.The highlight of the Center Reunionwas a banquet on Saturday evening,June 14,at the MichiganLeague Ballroom.Two hundred andfifty peoplejoined inthe celebration of theCenter's accomplishments and to honorRon and Deborah Freedman upontheirretirement. The speakers includedDirector Al Hermalin, Faculty AssociateKaren Mason, alumnus JackGoodman, andstaff member CarolCrawford.OscarHarkavy of the FordFoundation,andAnneMurrayof theHewlettFoundation joined inthe tributeto theFreed mans.Jack Goodman reminisces about hisstudent days at the Center.1 /.4I 'JThe Pop Studies Players, Alicia Cackley,Lisa Cope, Fran Heitz, William Mason, LoraMyers, and Brian Silver present an originalmusical tribute to Ron and Deborah Freedman,written and directed by Rheah Kish.The Twenty-Fifth Anniversary Celebration 45

A RENEWALIn the same year that the Center turned 25, Ronald Freedman announced his retirement from the University ofMichigan. Ron served inthe Department of Sociology for 40 years. He was the founder and first director of thePopulation Studies Center, and has always been at the heart of its world-wide reputation.To honor his work, the Center has established the Ronald Freedman Fund for International Population Activities.The Center's goal is to raise an endowment of $100,000 -$125,000 that will generate income for key activitiesthat link the Center with its alumni and other Third World scholars in the field. These include short-term fellowships,workshops, and travel to develop new research.Contributions to the Fund in its first year have been extremely generous. We have received gifts and pledgesfrom 110 individuals, including 41 of the Center's 129 PhD alumni. These gifts meet 65 percent of our goal. Inaddition, the Ford Foundation has made a grant of $25,000 to be expended for the purposes of the Fund.Ron and Deborah Freedman and all of the Center staff are extremely grateful to the following friends for theirgifts to the Freedman Fund.CONTRIBUTORS TO THE RONALD FREEDMAN FUND FOR INTERNATIONAL POPULATION ACTIVITIESGardner and Bonnie AckleyArjun L. AdlakhaNilufer AhmedBetty AlbertsAlbert F. AndersonAnonymousFred ArnoldMakoto Nohara AtohE. B. AttahMorris AxelrodEva BenjaminEdward S. and Ruth BordinLarry Bum pasCharles and Susan CalhounJean CampbellJohn Casterline and La Lira lee ThompsonNapaporn ChayovanCharles H. C. ChenPaul CheungLee-Jay ChoAnsley CoaleWilbur J. and Eloise B. CohenRichard Cohn and Diane ColasantoLolagene and Clyde CoombsArnold G. and Susan W. CoranJames C. CramerH, Richard and Florence R. CraneRuth CrankshawCarol CrawfordJohn L. CzajkaJeffrey and Jane DavidsonHelen DempsterKathleen DukeBetty Ann and Ivan DuffRuth EcksteinBarry EdmonstonBeulah R. FJvingSusan B. and John L. EtterReynolds and Gail FarleySidney and Jean FineGreer Litton FoxThomas M. FrakcrRonald and Deborah FreedmanWilliam FreyVictor and Marilyn GallatinSidney GoldsteinJohn L. Goodman, Jr.Lois GroesbeckFran Bladt HeitzAlbert and Jolene HermalinMartha S. HillJames HouseAmy H. HsuHoward lamsAnrudh JainPeggy JonesBeatrice H. and Robert L. KahnJoan R. KahnVasantha K. KandiahIkKiKimCharles R. KindermanLeslie and Rhea KishRobert E. KleinRobert M. KleinbaumJohn E. KnodelSherrie KossoudjiSam and Marilyn KrimmWerner and Marjory LandeckerRobert J. LaphamWilliam R. LavelyMyron and Barbara LcvineLois and Harold LevinsonPaul K. C. LiuKathy LondonAlbert M. MarckwardtAndrew and Janet MasonWilliam and Karen O. MasonKciichiro Matsushita and Van Ton-That46 Population Studies Center

Ernest and Adele McCarusHorace M.MinerJames and Gladys MorganEva MuellerAnne Firth MurrayPhilip and Lora MyersWilliam F. PrattSamuel PrestonMr. and Mrs.James H.RobertsonMrs. Albert Rogers1. J. and Barbara R. SattingcrHoward SchumanLeslie and Virginia SelinMarvin and Harriet SelinWilliam H. SewelAbraham SilvermanLois B. ShawHerbert L. SmithJay I. StarkDorothy Hood StrandDaniel and Adelaide SuitsChang-Cheung SunTe-Hsiung SunArland ThorntonRoyC.TreadwaySy and Florence VeniarLois M. VerbruggeMartin and Alice WarshawLinda J. WaiteMyron E. WegmanMaxine WeinsteinCharles WestoffIrving ZeigerNew gifts to the Freedman Fund for International Population Activities arewelcome. Please send contributions to: The Freedman Fund, PopulationStudies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, AnnArbor, Michigan 48104-2590. Receipt of all contributions and pledges will beacknowledged,and your gift is tax deductible.The Freedman Fund 47

Executive Committee of the PopulationStudies Center, Outside Members1985 -1987 (with end-af-term date):Richard C Adclman, Director,Institute of Gerontology (1990)Philip E. Converse, Director,Institute for Sodal Research (1990)Paul N. Courant, Professor ofEconomic and Public Policy (1990)James S. House (ex officio), Chair,Department of Sociology (1990)Harold R. Johnson, Dean, SchoolofSocial Work (1987)A. Rces Midgley, Director,Developmental and ReproductiveBiology (1987)48 Population Studies Center

STUFF ROSTER 1985-87DirectorsAlbert 1. Hermalin, Professor of Sociology, 1977-87William M. Mason, Professor of Sociology, 1987-Associate Directors for TrainingBarbara A. Anderson, Professor of Sociology, 1986-Karen Oppenheim Mason, Associate Professor of Sociology,1980 -1986Faculty AssociatesReynolds Farley, Professor of SociologyDeborah S. Freedman, Assistant Professor EmeritusofEconomicsRonald Freedman, Roderick D. McKenzie ProfessorEmeritus of SociologyWilliam H. Frey, Assistant Professor of SociologyDavid Goldberg, Professor of SociologyJohn Knodel, Professor of SociologyDavid A. Lam, Assistant Professor of EconomicsEva L. Mueller, Professor of EconomicsAlbert Simkus, Assistant Professor of Sociology*Arland Thornton, Senior Study Director, U-M Institute forSocial ResearchFellowsAlicia Bermudez, Fulbright Research FellowMariah D. R. Evans, NICHD Post-doctoral Scholar**Paul D. Frenzen, NICHD Post-Doctoral Scholar***Jill Grigsby, National Institute on Aging Post-DoctoralScholarBarbara Hirshorn, National Insitute on Aging Post-DoctoralScholarSherrie Kossoudji, Mellon Post-Doctoral Scholar****William R. Lavely, Mellon Post-Doctoral Scholar*****Ann Riley, National Institutes of Child Health and HumanDevelopment Post-DoctoralScholarAllen Schirm, Mellon Post-Doctoral ScholarFellows (Cont'd.)Maxine Weinstein, Mellon Assistant Professor ofSociology******James W. Wood, Mellon Assistant Research Scientist, jointwith the Reproductive Endocrinology Program,University of Michigan*******Research AffiliatesBarbara Entwisle, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Universityof North Carolina, and Fellow, Carolina PopulationCenterBrian D. Silver, Professor and Chair, Department of PoliticalScience, Michigan State UniversityGeorge Y. Wong, Member, Memorial Sloan-Kettering CancerCenterSupporting StaffADMINISTRATION: Betty Alberts, Office Assistant; CarolCrawford, Director's Office; Susan Etter, AdministrativeAssociate; Peggy Jones, Financial Assistant; Mary Scott, TrainingProgramDATA ARCHIVE: J. Michael Coble, Lisa NeidertCOMPUTING SUPPORT: Albert Anderson, Computer Scientist; J.Michael Coble, Computer Scientist; Fran Heitz, Amy Hsu, CathySun, ProgrammersLIBRARY: Lois Croesbeck, Librarian; Jeff Wiitala, LibraryAssistantPUBLICATIONS/EDITORIAL: Kathleen DukeRESEARCH ASSISTANTS: Frances Hodges, Lora Myers, LisaNeidertSECRETARIAL STAFF: Ruth Crankshaw, Judy Mullin, IngridNaaman, Maty Claire Toomey• Now at Vanderbilt University** Now atthe Australian National UniversityNow at Syracuse University•*•• Now at the Universityof Michigan Department of Economicsand School of Social Work••••• J>J o w a tftg University of WashingtonNow at Georgetown UniversityNow at the Universityof Wisconsin-MadisonStaff Roster 49

Photographs in this reportwere provided by Bob Kalmbach of the U-MNews and Information Services and SuzanneTainter of the Research News, and byCharlotte Anderson, CarolCrawford, and Kathleen Duke.50 Population Studies Center