National Mineral Policy 2006 - Department of Mines

in UK 206 kg, and in China it grew from 97 kg in 2000 to 178 kg in 2003. 3 The worldaverage per capita consumption of steel was 149 kg. In India, in 2004–05 the per capitaconsumption of steel was about 30 kg, of which the urban consumption was 77 kg and therural consumption was only 2 kg. The Ministry of Steel has estimated that consumption percapita can increase to 70 kg by 2020 if infrastructure takes off, if rural demand is stimulated,and if a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.43 per cent for steel production isachieved. It is, of course, possible to posit an argument that steel demand may surge wellbeyond the estimation of the Ministry of Steel and follow the Chinese path where productionhas risen to 350 million tonnes. This may well happen if India achieves a sustained growth inGDP at or above 10 per cent, as China has done. If the indications during the next 10 years orso are that such a situation is likely to emerge the policy on exploitation of natural resources,including iron ore, would have to be reviewed. In the meantime, however, it would beprudent to rely on the projections made by the Ministry of Steel and base our policy on thepresent estimate of resources and the projected rise in domestic demand/production of steel.As seen above, on this basis India would still have enough resources to last up to the end ofthe century. Being overcautious in exploiting the resources of iron ore may result in asituation in which the mineral resource is being overtaken by developments in technologyand reduced in economic value. It is well known that India had and has the largest deposits ofmica sheet (80 per cent) in the world but the mica mines were not developed in the 1960swhen mica was in great demand and the prices were high. With six different syntheticsubstitutes of mica now available, the demand has fallen to a tenth of what it was in the1960s. The demand having disappeared, India’s mica, still under the ground, is of little valuenow. There is already credible talk of titanium becoming the metal of the future and replacingsteel 50 years from now.7.34 The Committee concludes that on the basis of current assumptions of demand andsupply of iron ore in the country and of the growth in both, India would have enoughresources to last until the end of the twenty-first century and there is no basis for basingpolicy changes on the exhaustion of these resources in the near future. However, the positionwould need to be kept under review and adjustments made in it in light of the emergingsituation from time to time. The Committee recommends that the first review take place aftera period of 10 years, i.e. in 2016–17.3 As per Steel Statistical Yearbook, 2004, International Iron & Steel Institute, Brussels.154