94 Design of the empirical studyand thus serves as an out-of-sample test. Second, it enables the comparison of theresults with those of existing studies. 57The Dow Jones STOXX 600 index contains the 600 largest stocks traded onthe major exchanges of 17 Western European countries. 58 To classify firms into differentindustries and subindustries, I use the ICB system. This industry classificationsystem consists of four levels (in increasing fineness): ten industries, 18 supersectors,39 sectors, and 104 subsectors, and offers four-digit industry codes for allfirms within the dataset.To construct the data sample, I merge data from three sources: historical accountingnumbers from the Worldscope database, market prices from the Datastreamdatabase, and analyst forecasts from the I/B/E/S database. For the ten recentyears from 1996 to 2005, I calculate up to fifty different multiples for each firm i inyear t using accounting numbers and mean consensus analyst forecasts as of thebeginning of January and market prices as of the beginning of April. 59 I measuremarket prices four months after the fiscal year end to ensure that all year-end informationis publicly available by then and is reflected in prices.The sample considers data that satisfies the following criteria: (1) for individualfirms, there are no more than two types of stock (e.g., common stock and preferredstock) traded at the domestic exchange and an unambiguous dataset is availablefrom the aforementioned sources; 60 (2) for individual firm years, the marketcapitalization is above 200 million U.S. Dollar ($) and the value of net debt is positive;(3) for individual multiples, the underlying value driver in the denominator of57 All figures and tables presented for the European sample within the main text are shown for theU.S. sample in Appendix B.58 The index universe is constructed by aggregating stocks traded on the major exchanges in Austria,Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.59 I present results for all multiples shown in figure 3.2: Categorization of multiples except of thePEG multiple. As in related studies (e.g., Liu, Nissim, Thomas (2002a) or von Berenberg-Consbruch (2006)), the PEG delivers very weak results. For more details on the definition of variables,see Appendix C.60 I exclude firms, which are listed both as holding company and as subsidiary. In Europe, thesefirms include Fresenius (Medical Care) from Germany and Heineken, Reed Elsevier, and Unileverfrom the Netherlands. In the U.S., I exclude Dana Corporation, Scientific Atlanta, and SovereignBank because of ambiguous data.
Design of the empirical study 95a multiple is positive, so that negative or infinite values are impossible; and (4) forthe construction of the peer group and eventually for predicting equity values usingmultiples, I require the availability of at least seven comparables within the sameindustry definition. By doing so, statistical outliers cannot distort the empirical results.61 In addition, the analysis is conducted out-of-sample, which means that thetarget firm is not part of the peer group.Table 5.1: Sample characteristics and descriptive statisticsPanel A: Sample characteristicsUnderlying index Dow Jones STOXX 600Regional coverage17 developed countries in Western EuropeIndustry classification used Industry Classification BenchmarkStocks within the sample 592Period covered 10 years (1996-2005)Panel B: Descriptive statistics of the sampleMedianMean1stquartile3rdquartileNumber ofobservationsSales (mio $) 3558 9750 1223 9667 5367EBITDA (mio $) 577 1653 228 1511 4675EBIT (mio $) 410 1213 162 1065 4850Net income (mio $) 206 1144 86 535 4917Total assets (mio $) 5830 38766 1974 19674 5373Invested capital (mio $) 3777 18494 1383 10814 4101Book value of equity (mio $) 1677 4284 661 4320 5255Operating cash flow (mio $) 393 1364 152 1079 4178Cash dividend paid (mio $) 85 258 35 245 4662Panel A presents the characteristics of the European sample. From the 600 stocks within the DowJones STOXX 600, eight stocks of four different firms (i.e., Fresenius (Medical Care), Heineken,Reed Elsevier, Unilever) are excluded because these firms are listed both as holding and as subsidiary,but only one set of accounting numbers is available for each year. Panel B presents the analysisresults of the pooled sample of annual data from 1996 to 2005. <strong>An</strong>nual accounting numbers are asof the beginning of January each year. Negative numbers are excluded.The resulting sample for the Dow Jones STOXX 600, which consists of 592firms, is used for the descriptive statistics reported in panel B of table 5.1. The medianfirm has annual sales of $3.56 billion, annual net income of $206 million, total61 The minimum number of comparables criterion, does not apply in a real world application settingwhere a peer group of only two or three firms can be the best choice (see section 4.3).
- Page 1 and 2:
Equity Valuation Using Multiples:An
- Page 4 and 5:
IVForewordframework. Schreiner demo
- Page 6 and 7:
VIPrefacement from my friends, whic
- Page 8 and 9:
Brief contents1 Introduction ......
- Page 10 and 11:
ContentsForeword...................
- Page 12 and 13:
XIIContents4.5 Actual valuation....
- Page 14 and 15:
List of figures 1Figure 1.1: Valuat
- Page 16 and 17:
Notations and abbreviationsPrice an
- Page 18 and 19:
XVIIINotations and abbreviationsM&A
- Page 20 and 21:
2 Introductiongroup multiples must
- Page 22 and 23:
4 Introductionexpenditures, amortiz
- Page 24 and 25:
6 Introductiontion, therefore, aims
- Page 26 and 27:
8 Introduction• Research question
- Page 28 and 29:
10 Introductionscope of the solutio
- Page 30 and 31:
12 IntroductionFigure 1.2: Outline
- Page 32 and 33:
14 Literature reviewto earnings gro
- Page 34 and 35:
16 Literature reviewserved market v
- Page 36 and 37:
18 Literature reviewmultiple for ea
- Page 38 and 39:
20 Literature reviewthe other. Chen
- Page 40 and 41:
3 Theoretical foundationsShareholde
- Page 42 and 43:
24 Theoretical foundationsferred to
- Page 44 and 45:
26 Theoretical foundationswherev is
- Page 46 and 47:
28 Theoretical foundationsholders a
- Page 48 and 49:
30 Theoretical foundationsOhlson (2
- Page 50 and 51:
32 Theoretical foundationsget firm'
- Page 52 and 53:
34 Theoretical foundationsIn order
- Page 54 and 55:
36 Theoretical foundationsRI D Bequ
- Page 56 and 57:
38 Theoretical foundationsFigure 3.
- Page 58 and 59:
40 Theoretical foundationsThe loose
- Page 60 and 61:
42 Theoretical foundationscomings,
- Page 62 and 63: 44 Theoretical foundationsability c
- Page 64 and 65: 46 Theoretical foundationsposure to
- Page 66 and 67: 4 Comprehensive multiples valuation
- Page 68 and 69: 50 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 70 and 71: 52 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 72 and 73: 54 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 74 and 75: 56 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 76 and 77: 58 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 78 and 79: 60 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 80 and 81: 62 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 82 and 83: 64 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 84 and 85: 66 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 86 and 87: 68 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 88 and 89: 70 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 90 and 91: 72 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 92 and 93: 74 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 94 and 95: 76 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 96 and 97: 78 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 98 and 99: 80 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 100 and 101: 82 Comprehensive multiples valuatio
- Page 102 and 103: 5 Design of the empirical studyThe
- Page 104 and 105: 86 Design of the empirical studytio
- Page 106 and 107: 88 Design of the empirical studypir
- Page 108 and 109: 90 Design of the empirical study5.3
- Page 110 and 111: 92 Design of the empirical studyCha
- Page 114 and 115: 96 Design of the empirical studyass
- Page 116 and 117: 6 Empirical resultsThe following ch
- Page 118 and 119: 100 Empirical resultsous multiples
- Page 120 and 121: 102 Empirical resultsvalue multiple
- Page 122 and 123: 104 Empirical results6.1.3 Knowledg
- Page 124 and 125: 106 Empirical resultsknowledge-rela
- Page 126 and 127: 108 Empirical resultsTable 6.4: Per
- Page 128 and 129: 110 Empirical results6.1.5 The effe
- Page 130 and 131: 112 Empirical resultsThe second tes
- Page 132 and 133: 114 Empirical results6.2.1 Industry
- Page 134 and 135: 116 Empirical resultsExamination of
- Page 136 and 137: 118 Empirical resultscoefficients a
- Page 138 and 139: 120 Empirical results• The simple
- Page 140 and 141: 122 Empirical resultsTable 6.11: Co
- Page 142 and 143: 124 Empirical resultshowever, lapse
- Page 144 and 145: 126 Empirical resultsoped equity ma
- Page 146 and 147: 128 Conclusionmultiples, in particu
- Page 148 and 149: 130 Conclusion7.3 Research outlookE
- Page 150 and 151: 132 Appendix A: ICB industry classi
- Page 152 and 153: 134 Appendix A: ICB industry classi
- Page 154 and 155: 136 Appendix B: U.S. evidenceEquity
- Page 156 and 157: 138 Appendix B: U.S. evidencePerfor
- Page 158 and 159: 140 Appendix B: U.S. evidencePerfor
- Page 160 and 161: 142 Appendix B: U.S. evidencePerfor
- Page 162 and 163:
144 Appendix B: U.S. evidencePerfor
- Page 164 and 165:
146 Appendix B: U.S. evidenceIndust
- Page 166 and 167:
148 Appendix B: U.S. evidenceFactor
- Page 168 and 169:
150 Appendix B: U.S. evidenceTime s
- Page 170 and 171:
152 Appendix C: Definition of varia
- Page 172 and 173:
ReferencesAboody, D., 2006. Financi
- Page 174 and 175:
156 ReferencesBernard, V.L., Thomas
- Page 176 and 177:
158 ReferencesDamodaran, A., 2001.
- Page 178 and 179:
160 ReferencesFama, E.F., 1976. Fou
- Page 180 and 181:
162 ReferencesGuo, R.-J., Lev, B.,
- Page 182 and 183:
164 ReferencesLev, B., Nissim, D.,
- Page 184 and 185:
166 ReferencesO’Hanlon, J., Peasn
- Page 186 and 187:
168 ReferencesRoss, S.A., Westerfie
- Page 188:
Curriculum VitaeName:Born:Andreas S