is 'malaysia truly asia'? forecasting tourism demand from asean ...
is 'malaysia truly asia'? forecasting tourism demand from asean ...
is 'malaysia truly asia'? forecasting tourism demand from asean ...
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Loganathan Nanthakumar, Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Mori Kogidestimated for the sample period can be described as shown in thefollowing equation with standard errors and t-values of the coefficientsgiven in parentheses. Estimated AR(2) and MA(2) are found to besignificant at 1%. It <strong>is</strong> clear that the AR(2) and MA(2) components aresignificant without any seasonal dummies because the dummy variablesdo not determine ASEAN tour<strong>is</strong>t arrivals to Malaysia:∆lnTour t = 0.02 - 0.22∆lnTour t-1 + 0.68∆lnTour<strong>is</strong>t t-2 - 0.08ɛ t-1 - 0.91 ɛ t-2t-stat (7.74)* (-1.79) (5.93)* (-0.84) (-9.77)*It worth mentioning that once we accept ARIMA(2,1,2) as a suitablemodel for th<strong>is</strong> study, the model <strong>is</strong> used for <strong>forecasting</strong> purpose. Weapplied ARIMA(2,1,1) to forecast one-period ahead using h<strong>is</strong>torical data1995:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and forecast the short-term period 2010:Q1 to2010:Q4 of tour<strong>is</strong>t arrivals to Malaysia. Figure 4 shows the forecastedASEAN tour<strong>is</strong>t arrivals to Malaysia using ARIMA(2,1,2) with one-periodahead <strong>forecasting</strong> method. Usage of quarterly data with short term<strong>forecasting</strong>, one-period-ahead procedure provides a slightly better forecastfor Malaysia.70000600005000040000300002000010000018.08018.15223.49639.21222.27415.75616.65266.19128.55122.85418.91417.838Jan Feb Mac Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecLower (95%) Forecasted Upper (95%)378Figure 5 One-Period Ahead Forecasted ASEAN Tour<strong>is</strong>t Arrival(2010:Q1- 2010:Q4)CONCLUSION
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