Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...
Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ... Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...
sea-level riseOutput / Milestone Date ProgressRevised projections for future sea-levelchange during the 21 st century and on longertime-scales2006,2010Showed that over the last 15 years sea levelshave been tracking near the upper bound ofthe IPCC TAR projections (Submitted to Nature,2006).Revised estimates of future ocean thermalexpansionEstimate of the future contribution ofthe Antarctic and Greenland ice sheetsto sea-level change using an improvedhigh-resolution ice sheet-system model(including ice stream-ice shelf interaction, fullthermodynamics and flow anisotropy) andchanges in meteorological forcingEstimates of the response of ice shelves toglobal warming from improved models of iceshelf-ocean interaction (validated againstfield observations and remote sensing datafrom the Amery Ice Shelf); prediction, fromimproved models of ice stream-ice shelfboundaries, of the consequence of ice shelfcollapse on the discharge of grounded iceEstimates of the historical impacts of sealevelchange at key locationsEstimates of the historical frequency ofextreme events from observational (andproxy) recordsEstimates of the expected impacts of sealevelchange at key locationsSelection of key locations for more detailedstudiesEstimates of the changes in frequency ofextreme events from numerical modellingstudies2005,2009Revised estimates for a number of thecontribution to the rate of sea-level rise havebeen completed (see below) and these havebeen incorporated in revised projections to bepublished under IPCC banner early 2007.2005: Produced estimates of 21 st centuryocean thermal expansion from the CSIROMark 3 model that will appear in the IPCC 4 thAssessment Report.2010 An ice shelf ice stream transition modelis under test (see next milestone). Icedeformation experiments have collected dataon flow of anisotropic samples of Antarctic ice(2004-06) and theoretical models of anisotropicice flow will be tested in 2006-07.2006-09 The ACE CRC ice shelf model has been usedto explore the dynamics of the Mertz Glaciertongue and its response to global warming(2006). The model will also be applied to thelarger Amery ice shelf (2006-07). The iceshelf model has also been extended (testing inprogress in 2006) to study the ice stream-iceshelf transition by adding a basal friction term,to enable studies of influences on grounded ice.A model of frazil ice growth has been developed(2004-06) as a step towards understandingmarine ice accretion beneath the Amery iceshelf.2005 Changes in the frequency of extreme events ata number of locations have been determined.There is significant interest in these results andwe are being requested to do further studies.2004 2004 and 2006: Showed that the frequency ofextreme sea-level events of a given magnitudeat Fremantle and Sydney has increased byabout a factor of 2-3 during the 20 th century.2010 A study for the Victorian coast has beencompleted, following a pre-ACE CRC study ofthe Cairns area.2004 Completed 2004: South coast of Australiachosen as first study site.2009 Study completed for eastern Victorian coastline,extension to other parts of coastline is ongoing.48 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
policyProgram LeaderAssoc Prof Marcus HawardUniversity of TasmaniaThe Australian government is responsiblefor management of the world’s fourthlargest Exclusive Economic Zone,which includes about 16 million squarekilometres of the Southern Ocean.In addition, Australia was an originalsignatory to the Antarctic Treaty andclaims stewardship of a territory covering42% of the Antarctic continent.ACE CRC Policy researchers addressissues that will help Australia formulateits input to Antarctic and Southern Oceanaffairs and manage its interests in theregion. Policy Program staff and studentsprovide analyses of probable policyimplications arising from the scienceprograms and also provide advice to ACECRC scientists about the major policyissues relevant to their research.Program Objectives• To translate research outputs into formsuseful to research users in the spheresof law, public policy and regulation.Improving integration of Australiangovernment goals, objectives and interestsinto the work of the science programsincreases the policy relevance of the ACECRC’s research and provides the greatestopportunity for use of relevant research inpolicy formulation.• To identify emergent issues influencingthe developments in legal and politicalregimes in the Southern Ocean andAntarctica. Scientific research on Antarcticand Southern Ocean climate and ecosystemshas direct impacts on the management of theregion and raises a number of policy issues.For example, improved understanding of theimpacts of climate variability, and resultantchanges in marine ecosystems, will affectdecisions about resource use in the SouthernOcean and related ecosystems. Proposalsfor adaptation and mitigation strategies suchas iron fertilisation or deep ocean storage ofcarbon dioxide need to be considered fromthe legal and policy perspectives as well asin terms of scientific or logistic feasibility. Asclimate knowledge and projections of sealevelrise improve, the definition of extremesin natural events and the degree to whichthey represent ‘acts of God’ will evolve, withramifications for public and private reliefand insurance industries. Linking ACE CRCscience research on these issues to potentialpolicy implications is a core business of thePolicy Program.• To contribute to improved effectivenessof public policy managementarrangements and regimes governingthe Southern Ocean and Antarctica.There are a large number of internationalregimes and legal instruments that affectthe Southern Ocean. The ACE CRC PolicyProgram is exploring issues related to theeffectiveness of these regimes, such as levelsof compliance and enforcement, and lookingat the interconnections among them. Oneresult of this research will be advice aboutoptions for refining and improving regulatoryprocesses underpinning such instrumentsto make the instruments more robust andeffective.Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 49
- Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
- Page 7: governanceThe ACE CRC was successfu
- Page 13 and 14: commercialisationSpin-offs and pate
- Page 15 and 16: commercialisationEnd-user involveme
- Page 17 and 18: commercialisationIndustry or otherr
- Page 19 and 20: climate variability & changeProgram
- Page 21: climate variability & changePlans f
- Page 25 and 26: climate variability & changeProgres
- Page 27 and 28: ocean control of carbon dioxideProg
- Page 29 and 30: ocean control of carbon dioxidePlan
- Page 31 and 32: ocean control of carbon dioxidesepa
- Page 33 and 34: ocean control of carbon dioxideCO2-
- Page 35 and 36: ocean control of carbon dioxideOutp
- Page 37 and 38: antarctic marine ecosystemsof field
- Page 39: antarctic marine ecosystemsAME-03:
- Page 44 and 45: sea-level risePlans for 2006-07•
- Page 46 and 47: sea-level riseSLR-04: Modelling ext
- Page 50 and 51: policyOverviewAustralia will face a
- Page 52 and 53: policyPOL-04: The management of‘a
- Page 54 and 55: policyProgress against contractual
- Page 56 and 57: esearch collaborationProjectReasses
- Page 58 and 59: esearch collaborationProjectKerguel
- Page 60 and 61: esearch collaborationProjectImpact
- Page 62 and 63: esearch collaborationProjectHelicop
- Page 64 and 65: esearch collaborationStaff NameReid
- Page 66 and 67: esearch collaborationVisitor’sNam
- Page 68 and 69: esearch collaborationProject & gran
- Page 70 and 71: esearch collaborationProject & gran
- Page 72 and 73: education & trainingProgram LeaderP
- Page 74 and 75: education & trainingProgress agains
- Page 76 and 77: education & trainingStudent name Pr
- Page 78 and 79: education & trainingCurrent student
- Page 80 and 81: performance measuresObjective 1: En
- Page 82 and 83: performance measures2.3 To ensure r
- Page 84 and 85: communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
- Page 86 and 87: specified personnelSpecified person
- Page 88 and 89: appendix a: scientific presentation
- Page 90 and 91: appendix a: scientific presentation
- Page 92 and 93: appendix a: scientific presentation
- Page 94 and 95: appendix a: scientific presentation
- Page 96 and 97: appendix a: scientific presentation
policyProgram LeaderAssoc Prof Marcus HawardUniversity of TasmaniaThe Australian government is responsiblefor management of the world’s fourthlargest Exclusive Economic Zone,which includes about 16 million squarekilometres of the Southern Ocean.In addition, Australia was an originalsignatory to the <strong>Antarctic</strong> Treaty <strong>and</strong>claims stewardship of a territory covering42% of the <strong>Antarctic</strong> continent.ACE CRC Policy researchers addressissues that will help Australia formulateits input to <strong>Antarctic</strong> <strong>and</strong> Southern Oceanaffairs <strong>and</strong> manage its interests in theregion. Policy Program staff <strong>and</strong> studentsprovide analyses of probable policyimplications arising from the scienceprograms <strong>and</strong> also provide advice to ACECRC scientists about the major policyissues relevant to their research.Program Objectives• To translate research outputs into formsuseful to research users in the spheresof law, public policy <strong>and</strong> regulation.Improving integration of Australiangovernment goals, objectives <strong>and</strong> interestsinto the work of the science programsincreases the policy relevance of the ACECRC’s research <strong>and</strong> provides the greatestopportunity for use of relevant research inpolicy formulation.• To identify emergent issues influencingthe developments in legal <strong>and</strong> politicalregimes in the Southern Ocean <strong>and</strong><strong>Antarctic</strong>a. Scientific research on <strong>Antarctic</strong><strong>and</strong> Southern Ocean climate <strong>and</strong> ecosystemshas direct impacts on the management of theregion <strong>and</strong> raises a number of policy issues.For example, improved underst<strong>and</strong>ing of theimpacts of climate variability, <strong>and</strong> resultantchanges in marine ecosystems, will affectdecisions about resource use in the SouthernOcean <strong>and</strong> related ecosystems. Proposalsfor adaptation <strong>and</strong> mitigation strategies suchas iron fertilisation or deep ocean storage ofcarbon dioxide need to be considered fromthe legal <strong>and</strong> policy perspectives as well asin terms of scientific or logistic feasibility. Asclimate knowledge <strong>and</strong> projections of sealevelrise improve, the definition of extremesin natural events <strong>and</strong> the degree to whichthey represent ‘acts of God’ will evolve, withramifications for public <strong>and</strong> private relief<strong>and</strong> insurance industries. Linking ACE CRCscience research on these issues to potentialpolicy implications is a core business of thePolicy Program.• To contribute to improved effectivenessof public policy managementarrangements <strong>and</strong> regimes governingthe Southern Ocean <strong>and</strong> <strong>Antarctic</strong>a.There are a large number of internationalregimes <strong>and</strong> legal instruments that affectthe Southern Ocean. The ACE CRC PolicyProgram is exploring issues related to theeffectiveness of these regimes, such as levelsof compliance <strong>and</strong> enforcement, <strong>and</strong> lookingat the interconnections among them. Oneresult of this research will be advice aboutoptions for refining <strong>and</strong> improving regulatoryprocesses underpinning such instrumentsto make the instruments more robust <strong>and</strong>effective.<strong>Antarctic</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> & <strong>Ecosystems</strong> CRC - <strong>Annual</strong> Report <strong>2005</strong>-06 49
Change language