Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...
Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ... Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...
sea-level riseSLR-04: Modelling extremeeventsProject leaderKathleen McInnes, CSIROProject staffI Macadam, CSIROProject AimA primary goal of this research is to developAustralia-wide guidance about the impact ofclimate change on extreme sea level hazard dueto the combined effect of rising sea levels andchanged behaviour of severe storm events underfuture climate conditions. The goal, therefore,is to determine how climate change may affectthe frequency and intensity of extreme sealevelevents around Australia and selected SouthPacific locations due to future changes in severeweather systems and increases in mean sealevel.Key achievements in 2005-06• A study into the effect of model resolution ontropical storm intensity has been completedand a manuscript submitted to the Journal ofClimate is now being revised.• A study into the effect of climate change onmid-latitude storm tracks is being finalisedfor submission to the Journal of Climate.• A number of refinements to themethodological approach for estimatingevent probabilities for storm surge fromgridded model output have been made andincorporated in a study on the effects ofclimate change on storm surges along theeast Victorian coast.• The east Victorian study results weredownscaled to high spatial scale (50-100 m)over Corner Inlet and the Gippsland Lakesand the effect of various climate changescenarios on inundation extent have beenmodelled.46 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
sea-level riseProgress against contractual milestonesOutcomes:• Estimates of sea level change resulting from anthropogenic climate change used as one of the basesfor intergovernmental climate change negotiations.• Estimates of sea level change as an essential input to coastal zone management and other planningconsiderations in Australia and in neighbouring nations in the South PacificOutput / Milestone Date ProgressRevised estimates of historical (20 th centuryand early 21 st century) sea-level change2004-09 2005: Published revised estimates for 1950-2000.2005: Showed that coastal sea level is risingat about the same rate as global averaged sealevel over the period 1950 to 2000.2006: Narrowed the uncertainty of estimatesof the 20 th century rate of sea level rise andshowed that the rate of sea level rise hasincreased during the 20 th century.Revised estimates of ocean thermalexpansion from observations and models(both the CSIRO and AWI models)Revised estimate of the 20 th centuryAntarctic ice sheet contribution to sealevelchange derived from a comparison ofmeasured ice discharge (field observationsand remote sensing) with results from abalance flux model forced with improvedestimates of accumulation distribution andtemporal variability (from field observations,meteorological models and ice cores)2006: Provided the first comprehensiveestimate of the rate of sea-level rise during thelatter half of the 20 th century for Pacific andIndian Ocean islands and for Australia since1920.2005-09 2005: Produced estimates of 20 th centuryocean thermal expansion from the CSIROMark 3 model that will appear in the IPCC 4 thAssessment Report.2005: Showed (Nature 2005) that volcaniceruptions have a significant impact on oceanheat content and steric sea level. Post1960 volcanic eruptions masked part of theacceleration that would otherwise have beenpresent.2005-09 2005-2006: Comparison of historical field datawith satellite data has detected significant icemass loss on the Totten Glacier and a smallmass gain over the Law Dome.Historical ANARE field data have been compiledfor a reassessment of the East Antarctic massbudget, and some earlier regional balanceestimates have been revised. These havebeen compared with a test run of the balanceflux model using a reference accumulationcompilation. Alternative descriptions of iceaccumulation are being sought to explore theuncertainties in the input to the mass budget.Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 47
- Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
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- Page 84 and 85: communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
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- Page 88 and 89: appendix a: scientific presentation
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sea-level riseSLR-04: Modelling extremeeventsProject leaderKathleen McInnes, CSIROProject staffI Macadam, CSIROProject AimA primary goal of this research is to developAustralia-wide guidance about the impact ofclimate change on extreme sea level hazard dueto the combined effect of rising sea levels <strong>and</strong>changed behaviour of severe storm events underfuture climate conditions. The goal, therefore,is to determine how climate change may affectthe frequency <strong>and</strong> intensity of extreme sealevelevents around Australia <strong>and</strong> selected SouthPacific locations due to future changes in severeweather systems <strong>and</strong> increases in mean sealevel.Key achievements in <strong>2005</strong>-06• A study into the effect of model resolution ontropical storm intensity has been completed<strong>and</strong> a manuscript submitted to the Journal of<strong>Climate</strong> is now being revised.• A study into the effect of climate change onmid-latitude storm tracks is being finalisedfor submission to the Journal of <strong>Climate</strong>.• A number of refinements to themethodological approach for estimatingevent probabilities for storm surge fromgridded model output have been made <strong>and</strong>incorporated in a study on the effects ofclimate change on storm surges along theeast Victorian coast.• The east Victorian study results weredownscaled to high spatial scale (50-100 m)over Corner Inlet <strong>and</strong> the Gippsl<strong>and</strong> Lakes<strong>and</strong> the effect of various climate changescenarios on inundation extent have beenmodelled.46 <strong>Antarctic</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> & <strong>Ecosystems</strong> CRC - <strong>Annual</strong> Report <strong>2005</strong>-06
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