Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...

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sea-level risePlans for 2006-07• An estimate of the rate of sea-level rise fromthe presently un-analysed Hobart record andaddition of this data set to the PSMSL dataset.• Estimates on the frequency of extremeevents for selected location in Australia andthe South Pacific.• Publish paper on historical rates of sea levelrise around Australia.• New estimates of ocean thermal expansionusing reduced space optimal interpolationtechniques for historical data and the ongoinginternational Argo Program.• Use new Radio-Echo-Sounding data on theice thickness around the coastal sector ofthe Antarctic ice sheet between longitude130°E and 80°E (obtained in collaborationwith Italy) to improve estimates of thedischarge of grounded ice in this sector.• Incorporate a new parameterization ofthe growth of frazil ice (developed incollaboration with NIWA) in a sub-iceshelf ocean circulation model to advanceunderstanding of marine ice accretionbeneath ice shelves.• Interpret new Radio-Echo-Sounding dataof ice thickness for the Amery Ice Shelf todetermine the distribution of melt – freezeregions under the central part of the ice shelf(in collaboration with Italy).• Couple our time-evolving ice shelf model to asub-ice ocean circulation model and validatethe performance with new field results fromthe Amery Ice Shelf. Use this coupled modelto investigate the consequence to groundedice discharge of ice shelf change.• Extend ice shelf model to include the icestream to ice shelf transition, exploring theresponse of the grounded ice sheet andhence of sea-level to ice shelf changes.• The effects of climate change on stormsurges along the west Victorian coast and thenorthern Tasmanian coast will be undertaken.• Scenarios of future changes to wind andextreme storm events along the NSW coastwill be undertaken as a first step towardsassessing the likely effects of climate changeon storm surges along this coastline.• A journal paper on the work completed todate for Bass Strait will be prepared andsubmitted to a suitable journal.Project reportsSLR-01: Observations of sealevelriseProject leaderJohn Church, CSIROProject staffN White, CMAR; J Hunter, ACE; R Coleman,UTAS; K Lambeck, T Purcell, ANU; H Brolsma,R Handsworth, AADProject AimThe project will produce new estimates ofhistorical sea-level change and changes in theobserved frequency of extreme events. Theseestimates are an essential element in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeAssessment Reports.Key achievements in 2005-06• Showed that the rate of sea-level rise hasincreased during the 20 th century.• Provided the first comprehensive estimateof the rate of sea-level rise during the latterhalf of the 20 th century for Pacific and IndianOcean islands.• ACE CRC scientists convened and participatedin the WCRP Sea-level Rise workshop in June2006.44 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
sea-level riseSLR-02: Estimates of oceanthermal expansionProject leaderJohn Church, CSIROProject staffN White, S O’Farrell, CSIRO; N Bindoff, UTAS/CMARProject AimIncreased confidence in our understanding ofchanges in sea level during the 20 th centuryis dependent on more accurate estimates ofobserved 20 th century thermal expansion and theconfirmation that climate models are realisticallysimulating observations. This confirmationwill result in reduced uncertainty of futureprojections of thermal expansion.Key achievements in 2005-06• Showed that volcanic eruptions have asignificant impact on ocean heat contentand steric sea level (Nature 2005). Post-1960 volcanic eruptions masked part of theacceleration that would otherwise have beenpresent.• Nearing completion of a new observationalestimate of ocean thermal expansion for the1990s and the period 1960 to 2000.• Demonstrated that modelled and observedsea level display similar signatures ofatmospheric, oceanic and coupled variabilityin both control and transient simulations. Thelongest modes of variability are driven by theocean thermohaline circulation, with periodsof 20-70 years.SLR-03: Ice sheet and glaciercontributions to sea-level riseProject leaderIan Allison, Australian Antarctic Division (AAD)Project staffN Young, R Warner, AAD; J Hunter, ACE; NAdams, BOM; S O’Farrell, CMARProject AimThe balance between accumulation of ice andsnow on ice sheets and the discharge of waterto the sea from them determines the influenceof the ice sheets on global sea level. Thisproject will deliver more robust estimates ofsnow and ice accumulation on the Antarctic andGreenland continents during the 20 th and 21 stcenturies. Modelling of these ice sheets will alsodeliver estimates of longer-term contributionsto changes in sea level from ice discharge ormelt water from Greenland and Antarctic IceSheets. We will draw on international efforts toestimate contributions to changes in sea levelfrom glacier melting as well as from ice sheets.These improved projections will, in turn, guideAustralian decision-makers in the formulation ofpolicy and management strategies to respond tosea level change induced by climate change.Key achievements in 2005-06• Detected a small positive mass budget overthe upper part of Law Dome using a 40-yearrecord from gravity surveys. This surface riseis consistent with a snow accumulation rateincrease since the 1960s.• Detected episodic rift propagation fromanalysis of passive seismic observationsand GPS measurements, and assessed riftpropagation on the Amery Ice Shelf bysatellite image analysis.• Showed a decrease in extent of theShackleton and West Ice Shelves from acentury of historical records.• Applied our ice shelf model to the MertzGlacier tongue and explored changes in flowand ice thickness arising from projectedincreased basal melting expected underprojected climate change.• Advanced our reassessment of East Antarcticmass budget using ANARE historical fielddata, and presented results at WCRP Sealevelworkshop.• Undertook the first survey of icebergnumbers and size characteristics round theentire Antarctic coastal seas using satelliteimagery.Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 45
Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
Page 7: governanceThe ACE CRC was successfu
Page 13 and 14: commercialisationSpin-offs and pate
Page 15 and 16: commercialisationEnd-user involveme
Page 17 and 18: commercialisationIndustry or otherr
Page 19 and 20: climate variability & changeProgram
Page 21: climate variability & changePlans f
Page 25 and 26: climate variability & changeProgres
Page 27 and 28: ocean control of carbon dioxideProg
Page 29 and 30: ocean control of carbon dioxidePlan
Page 31 and 32: ocean control of carbon dioxidesepa
Page 33 and 34: ocean control of carbon dioxideCO2-
Page 35 and 36: ocean control of carbon dioxideOutp
Page 37 and 38: antarctic marine ecosystemsof field
Page 39: antarctic marine ecosystemsAME-03:
Page 46 and 47: sea-level riseSLR-04: Modelling ext
Page 48 and 49: sea-level riseOutput / Milestone Da
Page 50 and 51: policyOverviewAustralia will face a
Page 52 and 53: policyPOL-04: The management of‘a
Page 54 and 55: policyProgress against contractual
Page 56 and 57: esearch collaborationProjectReasses
Page 58 and 59: esearch collaborationProjectKerguel
Page 60 and 61: esearch collaborationProjectImpact
Page 62 and 63: esearch collaborationProjectHelicop
Page 64 and 65: esearch collaborationStaff NameReid
Page 66 and 67: esearch collaborationVisitor’sNam
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Page 72 and 73: education & trainingProgram LeaderP
Page 74 and 75: education & trainingProgress agains
Page 76 and 77: education & trainingStudent name Pr
Page 78 and 79: education & trainingCurrent student
Page 80 and 81: performance measuresObjective 1: En
Page 82 and 83: performance measures2.3 To ensure r
Page 84 and 85: communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
Page 86 and 87: specified personnelSpecified person
Page 88 and 89: appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix b: public presentationsSta
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appendix c: media interviewsMedia i
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appendix d: honours & awardsHonours
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appendix e: publicationsChurch, J a
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appendix e: publicationsRalph P, Mc
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appendix e: publicationsPublished c
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appendix e: publicationsTechnical r
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appendix f: acronymsCLIVARCMARCNESC
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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Mailing AddressACE CRCPrivate Bag 8
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