Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...

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climate variability & changeOutput / Milestone Date ProgressAssessment of variability and change of thesea ice mass budget in the Indian Oceansector of the Southern OceanIdentification and quantification of physicalmechanisms driving variability in the oceanicesystem in the Australian Antarctic sectorPast changes of annual-to-centennial scaleclimate variability in the Southern Ocean, itssea ice cover and the southern atmosphereinferred from ice core proxy recordsProduction of scenarios of changes inSouthern Ocean circulation and sea ice andtheir impact on ecosystems, carbon uptakeand sea level riseOperational, fully-coupled ocean-sea iceanalysis and forecast system2008 Work is underway. New approaches arebeing developed to combine ship-based andremote sensing data to derive maps of seaice thickness.2009 Study of mechanisms has begun, includinguse of records of past climate derived fromice core proxies.2009 Underway. Ice core proxies have so far beenused to derive a record of a decline in sea iceextent and an index of the southern annularmode circulation in the atmosphere, amongothers.2009 Climate change runs completed andsubmitted to IPCC (in partnership withCSIRO). Improvements to the climatemodels are underway. Impacts not yetassessed.2010 Coupled model under development. Seaice analysis based on remote sensing is inprogress.26 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
ocean control of carbon dioxideProgram LeaderAssoc Prof Tom TrullUniversity of Tasmania andCSIRO Marine & AtmosphericResearchThe ocean currently absorbs about onethirdof the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emittedby human activities. This reduces thebuild-up of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere, but makes the ocean moreacidic and may have a major impact onmarine ecosystems.Determining CO 2uptake and its effecton the ocean, and relating this to thelarger goal of predicting human-inducedglobal change, requires considerationof natural climate processes and theirinteraction with the global carbon cycle.New knowledge arising from the ACE CRCOcean Control of Carbon Dioxide Programwill help Australia plan effectively formitigation and adaptation in response toa changing climate.Program Objectives• To determine the current magnitude ofuptake of anthropogenic atmosphericCO 2by the Southern Ocean south ofAustralia. To predict future atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gases, we needto know how much CO 2is currently absorbedby the ocean. Work by the ACE CRC iscontributing to an assessment of global oceanuptake and helping quantify relationshipsamong ocean circulation and CO 2transfersbetween the atmosphere and the ocean.• To determine the role of upper oceandynamics in the control of phytoplanktonproduction and biological carbon exportto the deep ocean. ACE CRC researchersare collecting and analysing suspended andsinking marine particles and documenting theecological processes that form and destroythem. These particles redistribute carbon,nutrients and other elements within theocean. Understanding the transfer rates ofthe particles between the surface and thedeep ocean is important for understandingthe contributions of the Southern Ocean tothe control of atmospheric CO 2.• To determine the influence of ironavailability on Southern Ocean planktoncommunity structure and the associatedecosystem control of carbon transferto the deep ocean. ACE CRC scientistsare examining the availability of iron andother micro-nutrients in the Southern Oceanthrough extensive field mapping, samplingand laboratory analyses. Documenting thedistribution of iron in surface and deepwaters, and understanding the processes thatsupply iron and remove it from the SouthernOcean will help us assess the benefits andrisks of proposals to increase biologicalsequestration of carbon through controllediron fertilisation.• To determine the impact of increasingCO 2concentrations on phytoplanktonand on the relative growth rates ofdifferent classes of Southern Oceanphytoplankton. In order to predict thefuture capacity for biological uptake of CO 2into the ocean, we need to understandhow phytoplankton communities andassociated ecosystems will respond toincreased concentrations of CO 2. ACECRC scientists from this program and theAntarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 27
Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
Page 7: governanceThe ACE CRC was successfu
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Page 15 and 16: commercialisationEnd-user involveme
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Page 19 and 20: climate variability & changeProgram
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Page 29 and 30: ocean control of carbon dioxidePlan
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Page 37 and 38: antarctic marine ecosystemsof field
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Page 44 and 45: sea-level risePlans for 2006-07•
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Page 50 and 51: policyOverviewAustralia will face a
Page 52 and 53: policyPOL-04: The management of‘a
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Page 58 and 59: esearch collaborationProjectKerguel
Page 60 and 61: esearch collaborationProjectImpact
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education & trainingStudent name Pr
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education & trainingCurrent student
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performance measuresObjective 1: En
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performance measures2.3 To ensure r
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communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
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specified personnelSpecified person
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appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix b: public presentationsSta
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appendix c: media interviewsMedia i
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appendix d: honours & awardsHonours
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appendix e: publicationsChurch, J a
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appendix e: publicationsRalph P, Mc
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appendix e: publicationsPublished c
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appendix e: publicationsTechnical r
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appendix f: acronymsCLIVARCMARCNESC
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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Mailing AddressACE CRCPrivate Bag 8
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