Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...

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climate variability & changeCVC-04: Simulation of iceocean-atmosphereinteractionand climateProject leaderNathan Bindoff, UTAS/CMARProject staffS Marsland, R Murray, ACE; T Hirst, S O’Farrell,CMAR; J Roberts, TPAC; P Heil, G Hyland, RWarner, AAD; N Adams, S Pendlebury, P Reid,BoM; O Alves, N Smith, F Tseitkin, BMRC; PPetrelli, University of Sienna (Italy)Project AimSeasonal and decadal variations and long termtrends in Southern Ocean water masses (e.g., intemperature, salinity, currents, etc.) are poorlyunderstood at present. We are researching theprocesses that are central to understandingclimate variability near Australia and Antarctica,and are also involved in activities related to theforecasting of sea ice motion.We are using numerical simulations of theSouthern Ocean and its components, which aretested and validated against observational datafrom the other ACE CRC research programs. Thisallows us to diagnose the important processesacting in the Southern Ocean that both influenceand respond to global and regional climate. Theenhanced climate models resulting from thisresearch will deliver more reliable projections ofclimate variability and change and their impacts.• A new set of climate scenarios have beenrun with the CSIRO Mk3.5, which has animproved ACC and stratification in SouthernOcean. Analyses of these results areunderway.• The variability of the sea ice in the Mk3.0and Mk3.5 models has been analysed withstrengths of links with El Niño SouthernOscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode(SAM) and Southern Ocean overturning ineach sector calculated.• The digital library on the national APAC gridhas been released. The library has beenaugmented with key ACE CRC data, includingArgo data, new altimetry products, Modiscolour simulations, IPCC model simulations,ACE high resolution model simulations,and enhanced search and browse facilities.Most of these data are central to ACE CRCdeliverables, and being used across theACE CRC programs. We have completed arobust web crawler for OpenDAP sites thatscales to data sets that includes millions offiles. Twenty-five Terabytes are now undermanagement across Australia.• Technical improvements have been madein grid design for numerical models and inparticular for the AusCOM model.• New results are emerging on the changes ofwater mass distributions, ocean ventilationand subduction rates and ocean stratificationfrom IPCC class models. These model resultshave a high degree of correspondence to theresults from the observational program.Key achievements in 2005-06• Assessment of sensitivity of Adélie LandBottom Water Formation in response tochanged atmospheric conditions in theclimate system has been completed and isundergoing revision.• The variations in the Indian Ocean at 32°Shave now been explained in terms of theprocesses of ocean advection and sea surfacetemperature changes. These processes in thisregion agree with the mechanisms of Bindoffand McDougall (2001).• New model analyses show that the meanocean flow is highly correlated to eddygeneration. Most significant heat transportby eddies is north of the Sub-Antarctic Frontassociated with the Agulhas retroflection.24 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
climate variability & changeProgress against contractual milestonesOutcome: Estimates of sea level change resulting from anthropogenic climate change used as one ofthe bases for intergovernmental climate change negotiations.Output / Milestone Date ProgressComplete circumpolar oceanographic 2004 Completed.transect at 30°S, with JapanEstablishment of initial data assimilationexperiments in ocean-only modelCreation of historical and real-time oceandatabase systemComplete oceanographic transects at 115°E(WOCE I9) and across Kerguelen boundarycurrent (joint with CO2), collaboration withJapan. Complementary observations at 0°Eby AWI (Germany)Complete oceanographic survey of shelf/slope waters between 30°E and 80°E (jointwith AME; collaboration with Germany)Assessment of the variability of SouthernOcean currents and sea iceQuantify transport and variability of bottomwaters in Australian sector (with Japan) andcompare to Atlantic sector (with Germany)Deploy array of Argo profiling floats(collaboration with Germany, USA and othernations).Assess influence of projected changes inSouthern Ocean climate on basal meltingof ice shelves and assess impact on theSouthern Ocean of resulting changes onfreshwater inputs and / or changes iniceberg dischargeEstimation of overturning strength fromWOCE data using inverse modelsEstimation of sensitivity of overturningstrength to changes driven from differentforcing scenariosCensus of water mass changes from recentand historical dataProduction of ocean analyses for theAustralian sector by data assimilation model2005 In partnership with CSIRO Bluelink project,initial data assimilation runs completed forAustralian sector of the Southern Ocean.Companion high resolution model studieshave also been completed.2005 Digital data libraries established. This libraryhas continued to be developed and includesa unique ‘crawler’ for OpenDAP sites.2005 Completed.2006 Completed (refer comments elsewhere onBROKE-West survey).2006,2010Analysis of variability and change of southernocean water masses and sea ice has beencompleted and published in several papers.2007 In progress. Quality control or mooring dataunderway.2007 Continuing. 45 floats deployed between July2003 and April 2006.2007 Underway. Recent changes in AntarcticBottom Water have been attributed toenhanced basal melting of ice shelves. Anocean – ice shelf model has been developedand is being used to conduct sensitivitystudies.2008 Inverse model under construction.2008 Global coupled model under development.Sensitivity studies have been completed witha high resolution ocean-ice model.2008 Work is underway. Work on changes inseveral Southern Ocean water masses hasbeen published.2008 Preliminary ocean analyses completed, inpartnership with Bluelink project.Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 25
Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
Page 7: governanceThe ACE CRC was successfu
Page 13 and 14: commercialisationSpin-offs and pate
Page 15 and 16: commercialisationEnd-user involveme
Page 17 and 18: commercialisationIndustry or otherr
Page 19 and 20: climate variability & changeProgram
Page 21: climate variability & changePlans f
Page 27 and 28: ocean control of carbon dioxideProg
Page 29 and 30: ocean control of carbon dioxidePlan
Page 31 and 32: ocean control of carbon dioxidesepa
Page 33 and 34: ocean control of carbon dioxideCO2-
Page 35 and 36: ocean control of carbon dioxideOutp
Page 37 and 38: antarctic marine ecosystemsof field
Page 39: antarctic marine ecosystemsAME-03:
Page 44 and 45: sea-level risePlans for 2006-07•
Page 46 and 47: sea-level riseSLR-04: Modelling ext
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Page 50 and 51: policyOverviewAustralia will face a
Page 52 and 53: policyPOL-04: The management of‘a
Page 54 and 55: policyProgress against contractual
Page 56 and 57: esearch collaborationProjectReasses
Page 58 and 59: esearch collaborationProjectKerguel
Page 60 and 61: esearch collaborationProjectImpact
Page 62 and 63: esearch collaborationProjectHelicop
Page 64 and 65: esearch collaborationStaff NameReid
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education & trainingProgram LeaderP
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education & trainingProgress agains
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education & trainingStudent name Pr
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education & trainingCurrent student
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performance measuresObjective 1: En
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performance measures2.3 To ensure r
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communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
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specified personnelSpecified person
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appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix b: public presentationsSta
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appendix c: media interviewsMedia i
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appendix d: honours & awardsHonours
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appendix e: publicationsChurch, J a
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appendix e: publicationsRalph P, Mc
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appendix e: publicationsPublished c
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appendix e: publicationsTechnical r
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appendix f: acronymsCLIVARCMARCNESC
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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Mailing AddressACE CRCPrivate Bag 8
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