Annual report 2005-06.indd - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems ...

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climate variability & changeOverviewVariability of the physical environment of theSouthern Ocean influences regional and globalclimate, the distribution and productivity ofmarine organisms, the ocean uptake andstorage of carbon dioxide, and the rate andpattern of sea-level rise. Understanding thevariability of the coupled ocean-atmosphereicesystem is therefore a prerequisite for all ofthe ACE CRC research programs. Knowledge ofocean variability can also provide opportunitiesfor prediction and is required to assess theskill of model simulations and to combinemodels and data in sensible ways. Our presentunderstanding of Southern Ocean variability islimited, primarily due to the lack of observations.New tools (including autonomous floats, highlyaccurate satellites and improved numericalmodels) and measurements collected over thelast decade make it now possible to investigatethe variability of the Australian sector of theSouthern Ocean.The CVC program is tackling the issue ofSouthern Ocean variability and change in anumber of ways: collecting new observations ofthe ocean and sea ice; comparing historical datawith more recent measurements to documentchange, often by developing new analysisapproaches; developing a hierarchy of numericalmodels targeted at specific problems; and usingclimate proxies from ice and sediment cores toplace recent variability in a longer-term context.The integration of the research effort acrossdisciplines (ocean, ice and atmosphere; physics,biology and chemistry; present, future andpast climate; observations and modelling) is aparticular strength.In the first two years of the ACE CRC, wecarried out a number of major field programs.We deployed the first Australian Argo floats inthe Southern Ocean. These autonomous floatsmeasure temperature and salinity profilesevery ten days and relay the data by satellite,providing real-time observations of SouthernOcean circulation. Several multi-disciplinaryexpeditions involving the CVC, AME andCO2 programs of ACE have been carried outbetween Australia and Antarctica. New, veryhigh resolution ice cores have been obtainedfrom Law Dome, providing a record of pastclimate with unprecedented temporal resolution.Sea ice experiments have provided essentialground-truth for the next generation of satellitesensors and tested innovative electro-magneticapproaches for determining ice thickness. Thefield work is complemented and integratedwith a variety of numerical simulations. Modelsdeveloped by CVC staff and collaborators includefull coupled climate models used for greenhousewarming simulations and high resolution oceanand ocean-sea ice models for process studies.Both the field work and modelling studiesare generally carried out in the frameworkof national and international collaborations.These collaborations have leveraged substantialoverseas investment in projects of relevance toAustralia over the last three years.Key achievements 2005-06• BROKE-West: A major multi-disciplinaryvoyage surveyed the waters off the Antarcticcontinental margin between 30°E and 80°E,in a joint CVC-AME-CO2 experiment. Amajor goal of the program is to relate thedistribution of krill to ocean circulation.• Antarctic Bottom Water change: Comparisonof new measurements with historical dataconfirms that the bottom water south ofAustralia is undergoing rapid and widespreadchange. Between 1970 and 2005, the bottomwater has become fresher and less dense.Together with results from the NorthernHemisphere, the research suggests both thenorthern and southern limbs of the globaloverturning circulation are responding tochanges in high latitude climate.• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC): CVC scientists have played a leadingrole in drafting the upcoming 4 th AssessmentReport and ACE research featuresprominently in the report.• Publications based on results from LawDome ice cores: Ferretti et al. (Science)demonstrate large unexpected changes inglobal methane sources in the pre-industrialperiod. Landais et al. (Quaternary ScienceReviews) present evidence for large changesin snow accumulation during the Holocene atLaw Dome.• Publication of two major books on polarremote sensing: These were co-authored byCVC scientist Rob Massom.20 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06
climate variability & changePlans for 2006-07• CVC scientists will participate in the SAZ-SENSE voyage, led by the ACE CO2 program.The field program will provide new insightsinto the relative roles of physical andbiological factors in driving carbon exportin the Subantarctic Zone and improveour understanding of the formation ofSubantarctic Mode Water.• In a joint experiment with NIWA in NewZealand, we will deploy current metermoorings along the Macquarie Ridgeto measure the flow of the AntarcticCircumpolar Current.• Several CVC scientists will be involved incompleting the IPCC 4 th Assessment Report,including the Technical Summary and theSummary for Policy Makers.• Preparations will continue for a heavyfield season in 2007-08 as part of theInternational Polar Year (IPY). The plannedfieldwork includes a winter sea ice voyageand a joint CVC-AME-CO2 expedition fromAustralia to Antarctica along 140°E. CVCscientists will also be involved in internationalcoordination and organisation of IPYactivities.• Analysis of results from major field programsin 2004-05 and 2005-06 and model studieswill continue.• Activities by the ice core group will includeanalysis and production of finalisedLaw Dome records of accumulation andtemperature proxy; investigation of theprovenance of sea-salts and implicationsfor their interpretation in ice cores;analysis of the GD17 ice core; and a studyof rapid climate change using methanemeasurements from the deep ice core.Project reportsCVC-01: Variability of SouthernOcean currents and air-seainteractionProject leaderSteve Rintoul, CMARProject staffS Sokolov, J Church, CMAR; D Greenslade, JKepert, BMRC; N Bindoff, ACE/CSIRO/TPAC; CCurran, M Rosenberg, ACE; E Fahrbach, AWI; MWilliams, H Neil, NIWA; R Coleman, UTASProject aimWe aim to characterise and understand thevariability of the Southern Ocean and to usethis knowledge to test and improve climatemodels. The outcomes of the research willinclude advances in understanding of SouthernOcean dynamics, improved projections ofclimate variability and change from models thatbetter represent Southern Ocean processes,an enhanced ability to manage and assessthe status of marine ecosystems, and oceancirculation estimates for use in operations suchas search and rescue and transport.Key achievements in 2005-06• BROKE-West: A major multi-disciplinaryvoyage surveyed the waters off the Antarcticcontinental margin between 30°E and 80°E,in a joint CVC-AME-CO2 experiment. Amajor goal of the program is to relate thedistribution of krill to ocean circulation.• CVC scientists made a significant contributionto the 4 th IPCC Assessment Report, includingas Convening Lead Author of Chapter 5– Observations: Oceanic Climate Changeand Sea Level (Bindoff). ACE CRC researchon sea-level and ocean changes featuresprominently in the report.• Studies of changes in water mass propertieshave been extended, demonstrating thatthe warming of Circumpolar Deep Water iscircumpolar in extent and Antarctic BottomWater (AABW) in the Australian-AntarcticBasin is now significantly fresher and lighterthan observed in the 1970s.Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC - Annual Report 2005-06 21
Page 5 and 6: executive summaryResearch by the AC
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education & trainingProgram LeaderP
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education & trainingProgress agains
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education & trainingStudent name Pr
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education & trainingCurrent student
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performance measuresObjective 1: En
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performance measures2.3 To ensure r
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communication strategyThe ACE CRC C
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specified personnelSpecified person
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appendix a: scientific presentation
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appendix b: public presentationsSta
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appendix c: media interviewsMedia i
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appendix d: honours & awardsHonours
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appendix e: publicationsChurch, J a
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appendix e: publicationsRalph P, Mc
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appendix e: publicationsPublished c
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appendix e: publicationsTechnical r
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appendix f: acronymsCLIVARCMARCNESC
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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appendix g: staff resourcesStaff Na
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Mailing AddressACE CRCPrivate Bag 8
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