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150 — TALIBANgrowth of beards and has blamed all unrest on the Wahabbis, a blanketterm which Uzbek authorities increasingly use to describe all Islamic activism.But with half of Uzbekistan's population under 18 years of age andwidespread unemployment and inflation, unrest amongst Uzbek youth isgrowing. The social and economic dissatisfaction amongst young peopleis unrecognized by the regime. Even though Uzbekistan may be the mostpowerful state in Central Asia, it faces the most intense political andreligious polarization. Karimov's failed forays into Afghanistan and Tajikistanhave only encouraged Islamic militancy.Nevertheless, Uzbekistan is a major player in the new Great Game. Itproduces sufficient oil and gas for domestic consumption and will soon bean exporter. Initially Uzbekistan was ignored by the oil companies whoscrambled to sign contracts with Tashkent's neighbours. Karimov wasboth jealous and envious of their success in attracting foreign investment,even as he refused to loosen state controls on the economy to attractWestern investors. As Tashkent becomes an energy exporter it will havea vested interest in trying to influence routes for pipelines that benefitUzbekistan, but it will also act as a spoiler in its determination not to seeits neighbours prosper and thus become more influential in the region.Afghanistan's 500,000 Turkmen population also arrived as a result ofthe 1920s civil war in the Soviet Union. The first migration intoAfghanistan was by the Esari tribe in the early nineteenth century, whowere followed by the Tekke tribe after their revolt against the Bolsheviksfailed. Turkmenistan is a desolate land of desert and mountains inhabitedby the nomadic Turkmen tribes, who fiercely resisted but eventually succumbedto Persian, Turkic and finally Russian conquerers. Before thenineteenth century, borders were meaningless for the Turkmen whomigrated freely across the region. Some 300,000 Turkmen still live inIran, 170,000 in Iraq, 80,000 in Syria and several thousand in Turkey.The Tekke, the largest Turkmen tribe, began to resist Russian advancesinto their territory in 1870 and wiped out a Russian army at the oasis fortof Geok Tepe in 1881. Six thousand Turkmen horsemen were killed ayear later by a Russian retaliatory force. In 1916 the Turkmen under thecharismatic leadership of Mohammed Qurban Junaid Khan began anotherlong and bloody resistance against first tsarist Russian and then the Bolshevikswhich continued until his defeat in 1927, when he took refuge inAfghanistan.Throughout the Soviet era Turkmenistan was ignored by Moscow. TheRepublic had the highest unemployment rate, the highest infant mortalityrate and lowest industrialization of any Soviet Republic apart from Tajikistan.9 As Moscow invested in the oil and gas industry in Siberia, Turkmenistan'spotential oil reserves were ignored. Nevertheless 47 per centof Turkmenistan's revenue in 1989 came from the sale of 3.2 tcf of naturalDICTATORS AND OIL BARONS ~ 151gas to other Soviet Republics. The breakup of the Soviet Union turnedTurkmenistan's customers into impoverished, independent states whocould not pay their bills. 'We have no idea now who will buy our gas andhow they will pay for it,' Foreign Minister Avde Kuliyev told me inDecember 1991. l0Turkmenistan's dilemma was that it was sandwiched between Iranwhich was unacceptable to the USA as a pipeline route; Afghanistanwhich was trapped in civil war; and Russia which wanted to limit Turkmenistan'sgas exports to the West because they competed with Russia'sown exports of Siberian gas. By 1992 Ukraine, Armenia and then evenRussia refused to pay their bills for Turkmen gas imports. Moscow had astranglehold as all Turkmen gas was pumped through the vast formerSoviet pipeline network that was now owned by Russia. President Niyazovshut down gas supplies to his neighbours after Turkmenistan accumulatedover US$1 billion in unpaid bills and Turkmen gas production slipped to0.73 tcf in 1994, less than a quarter of what it was five years earlier.Although the USA was determined to isolate Iran, Turkmenistan couldnot afford to do so, as Iran offered the nearest and most accessible outletto the south and the sea. Adroitly Niyazov wooed the USA while seekingTehran's help in developing road and rail links. In December 1997 theIranians completed construction of a 119-mile-long gas pipeline betweenthe Korpedzhe gas field in Western Turkmenistan to Kord-Kuy in northeasternIran. The Turkmen gas that flows through it is consumed in northernIran. 11 This pipeline is still the only new pipeline built between CentralAsia and the outside world after nearly a decade of trying.Niyazov also courted Western oil companies to build gas pipelines thatwould free him from the Russian pipeline network. In April 1992 Turkmenistan,Turkey and Iran agreed to build a gas pipeline to Turkey andon to Europe which would cost US$2.5 billion. That pipeline never gotbuilt and subsequently saw several variations as the US tried to block anyroute through Iran. Finally, in February 1999, Turkmenistan signedanother agreement, this time with a US consortium, to build a Turkmenistan—Turkeygas pipeline which would go under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijanand avoid Iran. 12As Niyazov saw his economy crumble he sought alternative exportroutes. On the drawing boards in 1994 were plans for a 5,000-mile-longoil and gas pipeline eastwards to China that would cost over US$20 billion,but the project is still only in the feasibility stage. 13 Also in 1994Bridas, the Argentinian oil company which had concessions in Turkmenistan,proposed building a gas pipeline that would cross Afghanistan anddeliver gas to Pakistan and India. The US company Unocal with supportfrom Washington proposed a similar pipeline in 1995. The battle betweenthe two companies to build this pipeline, which is explored in the next