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Source: Nuclear Energy Institute, USUranium, as a low-cost fuel for electricity generation,should be a part of any energy policyvolatility. Take the period betweenJuly 1999 and July 2002, for example.While the monthly uranium cost atnuclear power plants was an essentiallysteady $5 per MWh, the fuel cost atnatural gas power plants rose fromabout $37/MWh to $55/MWh, thensoared to $100/MWh. It fell to about$34/MWh before climbing again.The prospect of continued pricevolatility, supply constraints – andhigher costs – for natural gas-generatedelectricity is a powerful argumentfor the construction of a new fleetof nuclear plants.Britain gambleson natural gasThe United States isn’t the only countrythat has bet its future electricitysupply on natural gas. In Great Britain,natural gas accounts for 37 percentof electricity generation – a share thatis expected to rise as high as 65 percentby 2020. According to an EnergyWhite Paper issued by the governmentin February 2003, the UnitedKingdom will be a net importer ofnatural gas by 2006.In a State of the Nation assessmentissued in July 2003, the Institution ofCivil Engineers (ICE) warned thatBritain will no longer be largely selfsufficientin electricity generation. Thecountry’s coal-fired plants will closesoon after 2016, and only one nuclearpower plant will be operating after2020. No new coal or nuclear plantswill be built before 2020, according tothe government’s White Paper. Theshortfall in electricity generation willbe made up by gas-fired powerstations, which are expected to import90 percent of their fuel. Blackoutsare “very real possibilities” in less than20 years time, said David Anderson,chairman of ICE’s Energy Board.With 17 years advance warning, “weshould be able to head off the ICE’sgloomy scenario,” says Brian Wilson,former U.K. minister for energy andconstruction. He notes that nuclearenergy now provides nearly one-quarterof Britain’s electricity. “It is becauseof the presumption that nuclearwill wither on the vine that we needto project such massive reliance onimported gas,” says Wilson.Diversity is the current strength ofBritain’s energy base, says Wilson,“and we will surrender it at our peril.”The country needs a balanced energymix that is also secure and affordable,he says. “Renewables, nuclear andclean coal should see themselves asindigenous allies. The more there is ofeach of them merely means the lessreliance there will be on imported gas.”It’s a message the United States shouldheed. Like Britain, America needsto diversify supply, says Simmons.“And that’s coal and nuclear.” In themeantime, “we have to hope we don’thave another summer like we did in1999.” ■Advanced Nuclear Power N O 9 November 2003 5