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ScenariosSpheres ofinfluence andEcosystemchainsSWOT andSTEEPanalysisimpact of sea level rise on aPP). Understanding these twoelements is essential toreducing vulnerability andincreasing resilience.Scenarios relate to climatechange scenarios (e.g. IPCCscenarios) and socioeconomic/alternativefuturesscenarios for considering theresilience of projects and theenvironment into the longterm future. The use ofscenarios is a response touncertainty.Spheres of influence arebased on using spatial toolsto assess the potential effectsof a project beyond thespecific project boundaries;as such these concepts usetools such as network analysisbut apply them spatially. Thisentails looking at the indirectimpact on downstream orrelated ecosystems, forinstance how will changingwater abstraction impactdownstream systems, howwill increased dust impact onthe turbidity of downstreamenvironments, how willremoving one habitat typeimpact on neighbouringhabitats?SWOT(Strengths,Weaknesses, Opportunitiesand Threats) and STEEP(Socio-cultural, Technological,Economic, Environmental andPolitical) analysis are strategicplanning methods used toevaluate a project, plan or abusiness venture for example.They involve identifying theinternal and external factorsthat are favourable andunfavourable to achieve anobjective of the activity.Scenarios are effective ways ofconsidering the evolution of thebaseline — both in terms of thepotential impacts of the climate ona project and the changes to widersocio-economic context that theproject operates in. The scenarioscan also support the considerationof alternatives.This concept is particularly usefulfor the screening and scopingstages and for identifying indirectand secondary effects. It requiresan understanding of possibleimpacts and causal chains, as suchnetwork analysis is a related tool.This may also be a useful toolwhen considering alternatives andtheir impacts.SWOT analysis and STEEP analysismay be appropriate to use withinan SEA, particularly as part ofidentifying effects.SWOT analysis, for example, couldbe used to summarise the mainstrengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threatspresented by a draft PP, and as aresult what could be addressed inthe final plan or programme toimprove its overall performance.STEEP analysis could similarly beused, for example it could offer anopportunity to help take accountof environmental equality inassessments: Social: use the ideaof community and wellbeing;Technical: look at soft and hardsolutions for social andenvironmental benefits for all;Environment: use simple languageabout the environment in thecontext of wellbeing and sharing itequally with others; Economic:explore models that work toprovide equitable economicPotential European resourcesinclude the information on theEuropean Environment Agency’swebsite:http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/scenarios-andforward-studies-eea-activitieshttp://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/It can be supported by some ofthe information sourcespresented in Annex 2, but willmore normally be based onexpert judgment and theexperience of otherstakeholders.http://www.gcvcore.gov.uk/downloads/futures/STEEPanalysisOutputs.pdfhttp://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_05.htm68 <strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA
enefits for all; Political: discussgood stewardship ofenvironmental, community andfinancial resources.VulnerabilityassessmentA vulnerability assessment isthe process of identifying,quantifying, and prioritising(or ranking) thevulnerabilities in a system.Vulnerability assessment hasmany things in common withrisk assessment. Assessmentsare typically performedaccording to the followingsteps:• cataloguing assets andcapabilities (resources) ina system;• assigning quantifiablevalue (or at least rankorder) and importance tothose resources;• identifying thevulnerabilities orpotential threats to eachresource;• mitigating or eliminatingthe most seriousvulnerabilities for themost valuable resources.Vulnerability assessment is helpfulwhen taking resilience approach toclimate change and needs to bebuilt into any effective assessmentof the evolution of the baselineenvironment and of alternatives toinvestigate how will theenvironment change withoutimplementation of a PP, and inrelation to different alternatives. Itcan therefore be used to evaluatealternatives in order to helpidentify and select the mostresilient alternative(s).Climate change Clearing House.Technical Briefings(5) ClimateVulnerability Assessment.http://www.theclimatechangeclearinghouse.org/Resources/TechBrief/default.aspxA Guide to Climate ChangeVulnerability Assessment.National Wildlife Federation,Washington,D.C.www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 69
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Guidance on Integr
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ForewordThe need for action on clim
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GlossaryTermAdaptation(climate chan
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Mitigation (climatechange)Mitigatio
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HOW TO ADDRESS BOTH CLIMATE CHANGE
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guidance.Since it is the first such
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2. Climate change and biodiversity
Page 17 and 18: 2.2.3 Resilience of a PP to a chang
Page 19 and 20: 2.3.2 Complexity of the issues and
Page 21 and 22: 3. Understanding climate change and
Page 23 and 24: EU Climate and EnergyPackageRoadmap
Page 25 and 26: • Under Article 6(3) of the Habit
Page 27 and 28: Table 5: Key aspects of biodiversit
Page 29 and 30: single biggest cause of biodiversit
Page 31 and 32: Engaging proactively with environme
Page 33 and 34: For climate change, in particular,
Page 35 and 36: 4.3 Identifying the key biodiversit
Page 37 and 38: 5. How to assess effects related to
Page 39 and 40: 5.2 Consider climate change scenari
Page 41 and 42: • Key areas that may be particula
Page 43 and 44: • aim for ‘no-net-loss’ of bi
Page 45 and 46: Flood regimes and extremerainfall e
Page 47 and 48: • Where possible, use causal chai
Page 49 and 50: This guidance document emphasises t
Page 51 and 52: Annex 1: Further readingThe policy
Page 53 and 54: Resource Paper: No Net Loss and Los
Page 55 and 56: Resource Manual to Support Applicat
Page 57 and 58: Annex 2: Sources of information on
Page 59 and 60: EmDATERA-NET ROAD —Coordination a
Page 61 and 62: GeneralData and Maps (EEA)EUROSTATE
Page 63 and 64: factorsEcosystembasedapproachesEcos
Page 65 and 66: to your PP area. Greenhouse Gas Imp
Page 67: stage, but may be extended intothe
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