Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...

• Where possible, use causal chains or network analysis (see box below) to understand theinteractions and associated cumulative effects between specific elements of the PP and aspectsof the environment. The point is not to be comprehensive, but to understand what might be themost significant cumulative effects. These may often be best identified through discussions withstakeholders who can help work through potential pathways in causal chains.Case study:SEA of the Strategy for Wild Deer in Scotland, the United Kingdom — example of the use of networkanalysisThe Strategy sought to provide a long term vision for the effective management of wild deer in Scotland. SEA used anetwork analysis. It is an effective approach for considering complex long-term issues.SEA explored a suite of alternative approaches to managing wild deer. Each one could enable the Strategy torespond to future changes and unexpected or unforeseen events. The network diagram was based on therelationships between the:• driver: as identified via brainstorming with stakeholders;• factors of change: the possible broader impacts of the driver;• sub-influence: impacts specific to the strategy due to the factors of change (and ultimately the driver);• management approach: what alternatives are available for the strategy to adapt and respond to the subinfluences;and,• impacts: what are the likely final impacts on the ground in relation to the Strategy.Source: Deer Commission for Scotland relevant webpage5.5.1 Trend analysisSEA practitioners may find it useful to use a trend analysis(see box right), not only to analyse the baseline, but alsoto assess the cumulative effects of multiple actionsproposed in the PP on the relevant environmental andclimate change issues. This approach allows you to identifythe potential changes to the baseline trends likely to becaused by the proposed PP.A trend analysis can be defined as an interpretation ofchange over time with and without the proposed PP. It canhelp to describe past trends and the current situation bytracing any trends or patterns in the relevant territories intime periods covered by the PP. It can also help youpredict future baseline trends without the PP, based oninformation about the changes in their future drivers. 30Lastly, a trend analysis can be helpful when assessing thecumulative effects of proposed developments in the PP onthe identified future baseline trends. Its benefit is that itcan combine many different tools and has the capacity toanalyse cause-effect relationships even in situationsconstrained by significant data gaps.Trend analysisTrends can be presented through:• Storylines that describe the overalltrends, their main drivers,territorial dimensions and keyconcerns and opportunities arisingfrom these trends;• Maps showing spatial developmentpatterns;• Graphs: from simple graphs thatuse available data sets to illustrateevolution of key issues and/or theirdrivers over time to complexgraphs that provide comprehensiveoverview of correlation betweenevolution of drivers overtime andthe corresponding (sometimedelayed) changes in the issuesaddressed by the analysis.Source: Presentation at the Conferenceof Regions for Sustainable Changeproject, INTERREG IVC (Dusik J., 2011)30 Oversimplified extrapolation that does not consider how the trend will evolve once it reaches a key breaking point (e.g. when thecarrying capacity of the surrounding environment has been reached or exceeded), or once the counter-trends reverse the trend, andtherefore may be misleading.<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 47