Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...

• Key areas that may be particularly adversely affected by the worsening environmental trends:focus on areas of particular environmental importance, such as Natura 2000 sites designatedunder the Birds and Habitats Directives or other zones designated under EU legislation becauseof their environmental sensitivity or characteristics.• Critical interdependencies: e.g. water supply and sewage treatment systems, flood defences,energy/electricity supply and communication networks.• Who benefits and who loses as a result of these trends: adverse impacts are not generallyproportionally distributed within society — some population groups and economic sectors aremore seriously affected than others by these changes in the ecosystems.When developing the baseline against which the proposed PP is to be assessed, it is also importantto acknowledge uncertainty — depending on the timescale and spatial scale being considered someuncertainty is inevitable and this will increase over larger scales.5.3.1 VulnerabilityAssessing vulnerability needs to be built into any assessmentof the evolution of the baseline environment, and ofalternatives. How will the environment change if the PP isnot implemented, or if different alternatives are taken?‘Vulnerability assessment is the analysis of the expectedimpacts, risks and the adaptive capacity of a region or sectorto the effects of climate change. Vulnerability assessmentencompasses more than simple measurement of thepotential harm caused by events resulting from climatechange: it includes an assessment of the region’s or sector’sability to adapt. Within the context of climate change, theIPCC defines vulnerability to climate change as the degree towhich a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate change, including climatevariability and extremes.’ 28Major infrastructure will be particularly vulnerable, andtherefore PPs should reflect this (see box right). During flashfloods, for example, poorly designed sewage networks canoverflow and release contaminated flood waters into otherneighbourhoods. PPs that will place future demands on thesewerage system will need to take account of the capacity ofthe system to cope not just with the expected sewageeffluent/disposal requirements of the development resultingfrom the implementation of a PP, but also its capacity in thelong-term and in the face of climate change. BiodiversityVulnerability of infrastructureMajor infrastructure projects, inparticular, might be vulnerable, e.g. to:• increased flood risk to fossil fueland nuclear power sites andelectricity substations;• reduced availability of cooling waterfor inland power stations;• reduced quality of wireless servicefrom increased temperatures andintense rainfall;• increased floods risk to all transportsectors;• increased scour of bridges fromintense rainfall/flooding;• reduced security of water supplyfrom changing rainfall patterns;• increased flood risk to wastewaterinfrastructure.When assessing vulnerability, it isimportant to consider criticalinterdependencies, e.g. in infrastructurethey can lead to a ‘cascade failure’where the failure of one aspect ofinfrastructure, such as flood defences,can lead to other failures e.g. floodedpower stations leading to power cutswhich thereby affecttelecommunications networks.Source: HM Government (UK, 2011)(Climate Resilient Infrastructure:Preparing for a Changing Climate —Summary Document)28 Source: CLIMATE-ADAPT.<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 41