Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
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It may take many years before they become fully operati<strong>on</strong>al, <strong>and</strong> in that time, biodiversity in theaffected areas may have changed, the area may be subject to different climate impacts, such asstorm events, increased flood risk, etc. For such PPs, envir<strong>on</strong>mental outlooks or scenario studies thatanalyse the trends <strong>and</strong> their likely future directi<strong>on</strong>s may provide a useful reference.To be able to underst<strong>and</strong> how the proposed PP could impact <strong>on</strong> the future envir<strong>on</strong>ment <strong>and</strong> how itsimplementati<strong>on</strong> might be impacted by the changing envir<strong>on</strong>mental c<strong>on</strong>text, it is critical tounderst<strong>and</strong> the likely evoluti<strong>on</strong> of the baseline without the proposed PP in light of expected changesin the climate, either positive or negative . You should also c<strong>on</strong>sider the result of implementing otherPPs. Spatially explicit data <strong>and</strong> assessments, potentially using the Geographic Informati<strong>on</strong> System(GIS), are likely to be important in making this analysis, <strong>and</strong> to underst<strong>and</strong> the distributi<strong>on</strong>al effects.The type <strong>and</strong> geographical scale of a particular PP is likely to determine what is appropriate for aparticular SEA. Several European sources of data, including data repositories <strong>and</strong> <strong>on</strong>line digitaldatasets, such as the <strong>Biodiversity</strong> Informati<strong>on</strong> System for Europe (BISE) or the <strong>Climate</strong> change DataCentre might be useful for analysing the evolving baseline trends. Annex 2includes acomprehensive overview <strong>and</strong> links to sources of informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> biodiversity <strong>and</strong> climate change.It is essential to c<strong>on</strong>sider the following aspects when looking at the evolving baseline:• Trends in key issues over time: e.g. water quality <strong>and</strong> availability during droughts, ecosystemdeteriorati<strong>on</strong>, vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme climatic events, etc. Are these trendsc<strong>on</strong>tinuing, changing, or levelling out? Are there envir<strong>on</strong>mental outlooks or scenario studiesavailable that have assessed the likely future directi<strong>on</strong> of these trends? If data are unavailablefor certain indicators, are proxy indicators available, e.g. if air quality m<strong>on</strong>itoring data is notreadily available for an urban area, are there data relating to trends in traffic flow/volumes overtime?• Drivers of change: e.g. major drivers such as demographic trends <strong>and</strong> the ec<strong>on</strong>omic affluence ofthe society, the legal <strong>and</strong> policy framework, market forces <strong>and</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic incentives, majorprojects that affect the issue, instituti<strong>on</strong>al powers <strong>and</strong> capacities to regulate <strong>and</strong> manage theissue. The drivers can be broken down <strong>into</strong>:o Direct drivers: e.g. changes in l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> cover; fragmentati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> isolati<strong>on</strong>;extracti<strong>on</strong>, harvest or removal of species; external inputs such as emissi<strong>on</strong>s, effluents,chemicals; disturbance; introducti<strong>on</strong> of invasive, alien or genetically modified species;restorati<strong>on</strong>.o Indirect drivers: e.g. demographic, socio-political, ec<strong>on</strong>omic, cultural, technologicalprocesses or interventi<strong>on</strong>s.• Thresholds/limits: e.g. have thresholds already been breached (such as air quality thresholds inurban areas, etc.), or are the limits expected to be reached? Have targets been set that need tobe met, such as nati<strong>on</strong>al or regi<strong>on</strong>al energy or emissi<strong>on</strong>s targets related to the ‘20-20-20’ targetsin the EU’s <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> Energy Package? Are there tipping points to be avoided in order toprevent serious deteriorati<strong>on</strong> or breakdown of relevant ecological <strong>and</strong> social systems? 2727 See examples of envir<strong>on</strong>mental limits relevant to climate change <strong>and</strong> biodiversity at http://www.resalliance.org/index.php/thresholds_database.40 <str<strong>on</strong>g>Guidance</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> integrating climate change <strong>and</strong> biodiversity <strong>into</strong> SEA