Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...

5.2 Consider climate change scenarios at the outset of the SEASEA practitioners should outline climate scenarios that may either adversely affect implementationof the proposed PP or may worsen its impacts on biodiversity and other environmental factors.These may include ‘big surprises’ such as extreme droughts, major heat waves and fires, speciesextinctions, loss of resilience and system collapses. The scenarios to consider will depend on thenature of the PP and issues that emerge at the scoping stage.In order to put climate change factors as the basis of the assessment, future climatic conditionsshould be considered upfront — this should include both gradual changes in climate and changes tothe frequency of extreme events. Include the following factors:• changing temperatures (general expected changes, extreme conditions such as heat waves andcold spells);• changing rainfall patterns and extreme rainfall events (heavy rainfall and droughts);• windstorms;• changing sea levels;• other potential extreme climatic conditions (snowstorms, hail, etc.).In addition to climate scenarios, it is important to consider socio-economic scenarios as this will helpassess future vulnerability to climate change. Most of the direct manifestations of climate changewill cause further secondary and indirect effects that can be considered in the analysis ofenvironmental baseline trends (see the section below on analysing evolving baseline trends.)5.3 Analyse evolving baseline trendsThe evolution of the baseline — how the current state of the environment is expected to change inthe future with or without implementation of the PP — is critical to understanding how theproposed PP could impact that changing environment (see box below).Case study:SEA of the Offshore Energy Development Plan, Ireland — an example of considering the evolvingbaselineThis SEA is most interesting as a good example of climate change effects being factored into the assessment of theenvironmental baseline, particularly with regard to the impacts on biodiversity. The review of the evolvingenvironmental baseline for each category of species considers ‘key issues and future trends’, with climate changeincluded within each of these species category assessments. This ensures that information on climate effects isbased on future trends as per the best available information about what can be expected to happen. Thisinformation is used to identify and develop win-win alternatives to the development areas and to apply theprecautionary principle.Source: Sustainable Energy Authority in IrelandThe baseline environment will be a moving baseline, particularly for PPs resulting in largeinfrastructure projects with a long planning or long-lasting effects (time-scales exceeding 20 years).<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 39