Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into ...
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• Factor uncertainty <strong>into</strong> scoping by c<strong>on</strong>sidering what aspects of the PP are susceptible to achanging climate or to l<strong>on</strong>g-term biodiversity impacts — <strong>and</strong> determine what expertise isneeded <strong>on</strong> the SEA team to enable this.• Gather more informati<strong>on</strong> that could be useful up to a point, but <strong>on</strong>ly if it is the appropriateinformati<strong>on</strong> <strong>and</strong> it is feasible to fill an informati<strong>on</strong> gap. See Annex 1 <strong>on</strong> informati<strong>on</strong> sources.• Scenarios are an effective way to deal with the uncertainty inherent in complex systems <strong>and</strong>imperfect data. Use scenarios to present a range of possible outcomes or pathways. For moreinformati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> scenarios see Annex 2.• Use proxy indicators if direct indicators are not available, e.g. trends in traffic levels if vehicleGHG emissi<strong>on</strong> data are not available.• Think about risks when the impacts are too uncertain. Always acknowledge assumpti<strong>on</strong>s behindassessment (i.e. under what circumstances an impact can occur).• Use the precauti<strong>on</strong>ary principle to guide the choice of PP alternatives <strong>and</strong> mitigati<strong>on</strong> measures.Think about building l<strong>on</strong>g-term resilience <strong>into</strong> the PP this way.• Prepare for adaptive management by putting in place m<strong>on</strong>itoring measures to resp<strong>on</strong>d tofuture changes.Case study:SEA of the Thames 2100 Flood Risk Management Plan, the United Kingdom — dealing withuncertaintyThe Thames Estuary 2100 Plan is a l<strong>on</strong>g-term flood risk management strategy for the Thames river area. It wasdeveloped by the Envir<strong>on</strong>ment Agency for Engl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Wales in resp<strong>on</strong>se to the gradual deteriorati<strong>on</strong> of flooddefences in the tidal Thames <strong>and</strong> the potential for increases in the frequency <strong>and</strong> severity of flooding due toprojected socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic change <strong>and</strong> climate change.The SEA dem<strong>on</strong>strates an approach to dealing with l<strong>on</strong>g-term horiz<strong>on</strong>s <strong>and</strong> their inherent uncertainties <strong>and</strong>acknowledges uncertainty directly.It deals with uncertainty through, for example, the opti<strong>on</strong>s for future flood risk management <strong>and</strong> the emphasisplaced <strong>on</strong> m<strong>on</strong>itoring implementati<strong>on</strong> of the plan.Source: The Envir<strong>on</strong>ment Agency for Engl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Wales relevant webpage20 <str<strong>on</strong>g>Guidance</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> integrating climate change <strong>and</strong> biodiversity <strong>into</strong> SEA