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• long-term and cumulative nature of effects;• complexity of the issues and cause-effect relationships;• uncertainty.These are the main characteristics of climate change and biodiversity that are most likely to pose asignificant challenge to SEAs. This section will help users to understand these aspects better andgives some recommendations to help deal with them more effectively throughout the SEA process.Table 2 below summarises an approach to tackling these challenges. Each challenge is thendiscussed in more detail in the following sections.Table 2: Useful tips on tackling the challenges of climate change and biodiversity in SEAsKey challenges to considering climatechange and biodiversity in SEATips on tackling this in SEAsLong-term and cumulative nature ofimpacts• Avoid ‘snapshot’ analyses and consider trends with andwithout the proposed PP• Analyse impacts of proposed PP on the key climate changeComplexity of the issues and causeeffectrelationshipsand biodiversity trends and their drivers• Work with worst-case and best-case scenarios• Acknowledge assumptions and limitations of currentUncertaintyknowledge• Base your recommendations on the precautionary principle• Prepare for adaptive management2.3.1 Long-term and cumulative nature of impactsClimate change − both mitigation and adaptation − concerns long-term trends and entails changesthat are often too gradual to detect over the lifetime of a typical PP. The long-term nature of climatechange makes it more difficult to consider within normal (five-to-ten year) planning horizons.However, as many PPs are implemented over the longer-term, and may set a framework forinfrastructure and other projects that will have a lifespan of many years, the consideration of climatechange and biodiversity will be critical to their viability. This influences the baseline environmentagainst which a PP should be assessed as part of an SEA.Biodiversity also concerns long-term trends and changes as the effects on biodiversity arecumulative over time. Once species or habitats are completely lost, they cannot be replaced orrecovered. This means that we need to avoid impacts wherever possible and take positive action toenhance and better manage biodiversity and maximise ecosystem services.SEAs should therefore avoid ‘snapshot’ analyses (i.e. at a single point in time) and consider trendsand environmental conditions with and without the proposed PP (and its alternatives). This isconsistent with Annex I(b) to the SEA Directive, which requires the assessment of not only thecurrent state of the environment, but also the ‘likely evolution thereof without implementation ofthe plan or programme.’ The cumulative climate change and biodiversity effects are particularlyimportant with regards to the evolving baseline. The need to consider cumulative effects ishighlighted in both Annex I and Annex II(2) to the SEA Directive.18 <strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA
2.3.2 Complexity of the issues and cause-effect relationshipsBoth climate change and biodiversity involve complexsystems (see box right) and interactions with otherenvironmental aspects environment and the humanenvironment. Since we cannot fully understand someaspects of complex systems at the required decision point,we need to be able to work with what we have. Forexample, we are able to analyse trends based on studies,reports and other sources of information. At times, this willrequire simplified models to give best estimates ofemissions and impacts, for example, best-case and worstcasescenarios to illustrate different future states undervarious assumptions. Conventional assessment approachescan be made more rigorous by asking two basic questions:ComplexityImpacts that may appear to havepositive climate change mitigationbenefits (e.g. renewable energyinfrastructure) could affect biodiversity,for instance via the cumulative effects ofseveral wind turbines on birds, locatedwithin or vicinity of Special ProtectionAreas (SPAs) designated under the BirdsDirective. These adverse effects could beexacerbated by additional pressure suchas inadequate farming or forestrypractices, etc.1. Is the implementation of the proposed PP likely to have any significant direct positive ornegative effects on the expected future state of the environment in the study area?2. Is the implementation of the proposed PP likely to significantly alter drivers or trends in the keyissues?The judgment of impact magnitude and significance must be context-specific. For an individual PP —a transport plan, for example — while its contribution to GHGs may be insignificant at the globalscale, it may well be very significant at the local or regional scale in terms of its contribution totargets set at those levels for GHG reductions. Biodiversity impacts will also depend on thegeographical and temporal scales of impacts and the sensitivity of the habitat or species concerned.For instance, implementing the PP could have negative effects upon a relatively common species atthe global level, but at the local level this could be the only viable population of that species. Bothclimate change and biodiversity therefore demonstrate the importance of distinguishing betweenmagnitude and significance as you should normally in a SEA. In these cases, temporal andgeographical scales may need to be greater.2.3.3 UncertaintyThere is a degree of uncertainty in any decision-making system, but it increases with complexity andtimescale. It is therefore very likely that there will be uncertainty about the long-term impacts of aPP on biodiversity and climate change (see box overleaf), and how projected changes in the climatewill impact the PP. Uncertainty requires taking a more qualitative approach, where actualquantitative data are not available or not sufficiently reliable to predict impacts. Once you recogniseuncertainty in the PP and the SEA, consider the following advice for dealing with it.• Be comfortable with uncertainty. When seeking to anticipate the future, you can never becertain.• Factor uncertainty into screening.<strong>Guidance</strong> on integrating climate change and biodiversity into SEA 19
Page 1 and 2: Guidance on Integr
Page 3: ForewordThe need for action on clim
Page 6 and 7: GlossaryTermAdaptation(climate chan
Page 8 and 9: Mitigation (climatechange)Mitigatio
Page 10: HOW TO ADDRESS BOTH CLIMATE CHANGE
Page 13 and 14: guidance.Since it is the first such
Page 15 and 16: 2. Climate change and biodiversity
Page 17: 2.2.3 Resilience of a PP to a chang
Page 21 and 22: 3. Understanding climate change and
Page 23 and 24: EU Climate and EnergyPackageRoadmap
Page 25 and 26: • Under Article 6(3) of the Habit
Page 27 and 28: Table 5: Key aspects of biodiversit
Page 29 and 30: single biggest cause of biodiversit
Page 31 and 32: Engaging proactively with environme
Page 33 and 34: For climate change, in particular,
Page 35 and 36: 4.3 Identifying the key biodiversit
Page 37 and 38: 5. How to assess effects related to
Page 39 and 40: 5.2 Consider climate change scenari
Page 41 and 42: • Key areas that may be particula
Page 43 and 44: • aim for ‘no-net-loss’ of bi
Page 45 and 46: Flood regimes and extremerainfall e
Page 47 and 48: • Where possible, use causal chai
Page 49 and 50: This guidance document emphasises t
Page 51 and 52: Annex 1: Further readingThe policy
Page 53 and 54: Resource Paper: No Net Loss and Los
Page 55 and 56: Resource Manual to Support Applicat
Page 57 and 58: Annex 2: Sources of information on
Page 59 and 60: EmDATERA-NET ROAD —Coordination a
Page 61 and 62: GeneralData and Maps (EEA)EUROSTATE
Page 63 and 64: factorsEcosystembasedapproachesEcos
Page 65 and 66: to your PP area. Greenhouse Gas Imp
Page 67 and 68: stage, but may be extended intothe
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enefits for all; Political: discuss
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