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42 Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative ScienceDecember 2010to small-scale farmers. This accounted for about65.5% (or N 2.03 billion). This implies that bankswere persuaded by the Scheme to lend to small-scalefarmers, especially those borrowing N 20,000and below, without demanding tangible securities.In terms of categories of borrowers, at the end of1988, 96.1% of total guaranteed loans went to individuals,1.3% went to co-operative societies and2.3% went to corporate bodies. Looking at valueof guaranteed loans received, individuals, co-operativesand corporate bodies received 37.5%, 1.6 %and 60.9% respectively. In 1998, and particularlyin the last three years covered by this review, therehas been no change in this distribution pattern. Forexample, in 2004 individual borrowers dominatedthe Scheme with the number and values of loansguaranteed amounting to 34,912 and 2.0 billion representing99.6% and 96.5% of the total, respectively.In 2005, individual borrowers accounted for99.0% and 97.5% respectively of the total volumeand value of loans guaranteed. Co-operative societiesaccounted for 0.3% and 1.0%, while corporatebodies took the balance.Considering term structure of loans, short-termloans of less than three years duration continue todominate the lending procedure under the Schemefrom inception. At the end of December 1988, suchloans accounted for 97% of total loans guaranteed.Medium term loans that matured between three andfive years constituted 2.8%, and those falling duein over five years, took 0.2%. This is comparableto the situation in 1987 when short, medium andlong-term loans accounted for 96.5%, 3.1% and0.4% respectively of the total number of loans guaranteed.This distribution pattern has not changedconsiderably at the end of December 1998 and inthe last three years of the Scheme, for which theaverage distribution was 94.6%, 4.4% and 1.0%,respectively.f) Econometric integration and co-integrationFigures 1 and 2 are the plots of the key time series,namely: loan volume, recurrent expenditure, ACGSFcapital, value of food imports, agricultural GDP andnumber of loans granted under ACGSF. With exceptionof loan volume, the first impression that onegets from these graphs is that the time series seem tobe «trending» upwards albeit with fluctuations.The Dickey Fuller and Augmented Dickey Fullerclass of unit root tests were applied to the naturallogarithms of each variable over the period between1978 to 2005 with an intercept and a linear trend.250Billion Naira200150100Loan volumeRecurrent expenditureAGCSF capitalFood import valueAgric GDP5001978198119841987199019931996199920022005Figure 1. Time series of key variablesJ. econ. finance adm. sci., 15(29), 2010