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Derivatives in Plain Words by Frederic Lau, with a ... - HKU Libraries

Derivatives in Plain Words by Frederic Lau, with a ... - HKU Libraries

Derivatives in Plain Words by Frederic Lau, with a ... - HKU Libraries

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PriceNon-Callable BondPrepayment option (opposite effect to MBS holders)YieldWhen the market mortgage rates are higher than the exist<strong>in</strong>g mortgagerates <strong>in</strong> the loan pool, the value of the borrower's prepayment option isnot worth much (the right-hand side of the graph). Borrowers are unlikelyto ref<strong>in</strong>ance their mortgages (or to exercise their options and put themortgages back to the lender). But if rates (and hence the yield) cont<strong>in</strong>ueto drop (mov<strong>in</strong>g from right to left <strong>in</strong> the above graph), the prepaymentoption is chang<strong>in</strong>g from out-of-the-money to <strong>in</strong>-the-money. This is becausewhen the market mortgage rates are lower than the mortgage rates <strong>in</strong> theloan pool (<strong>by</strong> approximately 2 percent depend<strong>in</strong>g on the cost of ref<strong>in</strong>ance),there is an advantage for the borrowers to ref<strong>in</strong>ance their mortgages. Thevalue of the prepayment option <strong>in</strong>creases. The value of the MBS is thecomb<strong>in</strong>ation of these two values - the long position (positive value) of thenon-callable bond m<strong>in</strong>us the short position (negative value) of the prepaymentoption. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the cash flows of a simple passthroughMBS.PriceMBSNon-Callable BondPrepayment option (opposite effect to MBS holders)YieldMortgage-backed Securities

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