Climate change research at the Met Office Hadley Centre - JULES

Using JULES for impacts assessment tounderpin UK and international climatepolicyRichard BettsMet Office Hadley Centre© Crown copyright Met Office

2 major climate policy activitiesrequiring robust input from climatescience and related fields• International: United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)• UK: Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)© Crown copyright Met Office

United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)• Primary aim is to “avoid dangerous climate change”• Therefore need to know what “dangerous climatechange” actually is• Emerging issue is facilitating adaptation to committedclimate change in developing countries• Therefore need to assess climate risks, hazards andvulnerabilities at regional scales, in context of otherstresses• Main source of underpinning science advice to UNFCCCis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) currently being written –due out 2013-2014 (3 phases)© Crown copyright Met Office

IPCC Working GroupsWG1PhysicalScienceBasis© Crown copyright Met OfficeWG2Impacts,Adaptation &VulnerabilityWG3Mitigation

AR5 WG2 structure© Crown copyright Met Office• Context• Natural and Managed Resources andEcosystems, and Their Uses• Human Settlements, Industry, andInfrastructure• Human Health, Well-Being, and Security• Adaptation and Development• Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, andOpportunities• Regional aspects

Natural and Managed Resources andEcosystems, and Their Uses3. Freshwater resources4. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems- (R Betts one of Lead Authors)5. Coastal ecosystems and low-lying areas6. Ocean ecosystems7. Food systems and food security© Crown copyright Met Office

Human settlements, industry andinfrastructure8. Urban Areas9. Rural Areas10. Key economic sectors and services© Crown copyright Met Office

Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks,Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities18. Detection and attribution of observed impacts19. Emergent and key risks and vulnerabilities20. Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development© Crown copyright Met Office

Regional aspects© Crown copyright Met Office21. Regional context (R Jones one of Lead Authors)22. Africa23. Europe24. Asia25. Australasia26. North America27. Central and South America28. Polar Regions29. Small Islands30. International Waters

UK Climate Change RiskAssessment: Aims• “To undertake an assessment of the risks (including opportunities)from climate change to those things that have social,environmental and economic value in the UK, to help theGovernment create an enabling environment for the UK to adaptand identify priorities for action.”• To fulfil Climate Change Act 2008• To understand current and future risks and opportunities• To inform Government adaptation actions• To raise awareness of UK climate risks• To develop capacity – learning process• To identify research needs (inform next CCRA – 5 year cycle)• 1 st CCRA reports to Parliament 26 th January 2012© Crown copyright Met Office

CCRA Sectors and themesSECTORS• Agriculture• Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services• Built Environment• Business, Industry & Services• Energy• Flooding & Coastal Erosion• Forestry• Health• Marine (incl. fisheries)• Transport• WaterTHEMES• Natural Environment• Agriculture & Forestry• Business• Buildings & Infrastructure• Health & Well-being© Crown copyright Met Office

CCRA Method in Brief1. Choose priority risks 2. Assess sensitivity ofeach risk to current~700risks~100risks climateMagnitude3. Add projections offuture climate/ populationfor each riskHighMediumLikelihoodUrgencyLow6. Compare scores of allrisks5. Assign magnitude (logarithmicscale) and confidence scores to eachriskMagnitude Low Medium HighSocial 100s 1000s Millions% change in DO, Dry scenariounknown-20% to -16%-16% to -12%-12% to -8%-8% to -6%-6% to -4%-4% to -2%-2% to -1%-1% to 0%0% to 1%1% to 2%2% to 4%4% to 6%4. Compare by areafor each risk.Economic £1 M £10 M £100 MEnv. 100km 1000km 10,000km© Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met OfficeHow can JULES contribute to currentIPCC and next CCRA?• Both IPCC and CCRA take a fragmented, sectorfocussedapproach• Often the user-focussed impacts work done quickly tocustomer timescales not scientific ones!• Need for a robust, scientifically-proven tool that can beeasily and rapidly applied• Individual sectors (food, water, energy, etc) generallyexamined independently of each other (so inconsistent)• Real world more integrated• Physical interdependencies• Socio-economic interdependencies• As a process-based model of terrestrial systems, JULEScan be a framework for accounting for physicalinterdependencies• Very little work done on detection and attribution ofimpacts

© Crown copyright Met OfficeIntegrated land impacts modelling

© Crown copyright Met OfficeCO 2 rise, climate change and thehydrological cycle

Impacts of changes in population,climate and CO 2 on water stressRAD: CO 2 only acts as agreenhouse gasRADPHYS: CO 2 alsoaffects plant physiology© Crown copyright Met Office

Different predictionsusing hydrology modelsinside and outside ofclimate modelsRiver runoff changessimulated by a hydrologymodel separate from climatemodelsNo. of models giving increased runoffRiver runoff changes directlysimulated within climatemodels(Number of models simulatingincreased runoff at 4 C warming)No. of models giving increased runoff© Crown copyright Met Office

Proposed work for Fifth AssessmentReport (AR5) with JULES: improvedimpacts projections• Global-scale projections of biophysical impactsthat are internally-consistent:• Runoff• Groundwater recharge?• Terrestrial ecosystems• Crop productivity• Include linkages via large-scale hydrology:• Irrigation• River flows© Crown copyright Met Office

Proposed work for AR5 with JULES:improved attribution• Global-scale simulations of past biophysicalimpacts that are internally-consistent:• Runoff, river flows• Terrestrial ecosystems• Include more complete treatment of direct andindirect climate processes:• Local precipitation + evaporation• Remote influences via rivers• Indirect effects eg: vegetation impacts on hydrology• Other anthropogenic drivers eg: land use, irrigation© Crown copyright Met Office

Priorities for delivering impacts toAR5• Provide more integration between processes that havepreviously been assessed in AR4• More complete representation of land hydrology• Inclusion of crops• Simulation of existing processes not compromised• Fully operational on global grid:• Science works (and is credible!) everywhere in world• Driving data / ancillary files available on global grid• Validated on global grid• Deliver in time to be assessed in the report!© Crown copyright Met Office

Other priorities• Remember JULES also intended as landsurface scheme for Unified Model – bothclimate and weather forecast configurations• JULES developments which reduceperformance of atmosphere model will not beused in operational Met Office configurations ofUM! (both climate and weather configurations)• Limit divergence from UM version of JULES asfar as possible – easier to test and maintain© Crown copyright Met Office

Timescales for inclusion in AR5Working Group 2 report (Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability)• Zeroth Order Draft (ZOD) underwent informal review Autumn 2011• Several members of JULES community took part in informal review –thank you, very useful indeed!• First Order Draft (FOD) currently being written.• Lead authors need to be familiar with current work NOW• FOD out to formal review June 2012• Please consider volunteering to be expert reviewer• Second Order Draft (SOD) to be written early 2013• Cited papers need to be submitted by 31 st January 2013• Final draft late 2013• Cited papers need to accepted by 31 st August 2013• Report publication April 2014© Crown copyright Met Office