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MAY 2008 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER2000 and 2002, due to the Internet bubble ofthe early millennium, it was back on the trackin 2003 and continued to increase with an evenhigher rate, expected to exceed 600 on theindex in the year 2009.During the Internet’s rapid growth, the alreadyestablished television segment has beengrowing at a slower pace, especially between1999 and 2003. It will be less than index 200in the year 2009, less than one-third of theonline ad index for that year.According to eMarketer and IAB/PwC research,along with increasing online ad spending, theaverage annual ad spending on a U.S. onlineuser is also on the rise. Spending was nearly $50per user in 2001, and declined largely becauseof the Internet bubble. In 2007, it reached $110and is expected to increase to $199 in 2011.According to MultiMedia Intelligence, totalU.S. online advertising revenue in 2011 willreach about $35 billion, with nearly 40percent ($13.5 billion) made up by search.Display ads will account for 22.5 percent,while classified and rich media are expectedto account for 16 percent and 12 percent,respectively.Interactive marketing spending in the UnitedStates will reach $60 billion in 2012, growingfrom less than $20 billion in 2007, accordingto technology and market research firmForrester Research, Inc.Online Advertising Revenuesin China, 1998-2006US$ millions6005004003002001000Online Advertising Revenues (US$ millions)Increase (%)1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(%)350300250200150100Note: converted to dollars at the annual average exchange rate.From online media and advertising agencies, excluding searchengine marketing.Source: Shanghai iResearch Co., Ltd., “China Online AdvertisingResearch Report 2004,” June 2005© World Association of Newspapers 2007-20085008,0006,0004,0002,000Paid Search AdvertisingU.S., 2006 – 2008US$ million Paid search Annual growth %12,00029.529.0%10,00011,094.929.028.56,799.002006A 2007E 2008ESource: MAGNA Global© World Association of Newspapers 2007-2008In 2007, spending was almost completelydominated by search engine and onlinedisplay, while online video, emerging channelsand e-mail were niche groups. In 2012, searchengine and online display are still expected tobe the two largest contributors, but onlinevideo and emerging channels are growing, andare expected to continue to increase.Paid search, an important contributor to onlineadvertising, will increase from US$6.8 billionin 2006 to $11.1 billion in 2008, the mediaresearch arm of U.S.-based MAGNA Globalhas forecast. Annual growth of paid search in2007 and 2008 hit the double-digit range, with29 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively.ONLINE ADVERTISING IN CHINAIn China, online ad revenue is also booming.The once tiny market surged to about US$40million in 2000, with an annual growth rate ofnearly 300 percent. In 2004, online adspending exceeded $200 million, and reachedabout $500 million in 2006. Its growth,although slowing in recent years, is still atabout 50 percent per year, according toShanghai iResearch Co. Ltd.ONLINE VIDEO8,770.726.5%28.027.527.026.526.025.525.0U.S. online videoAccording to research firm eMarketer, U.S.online video advertising is a booming sector,surging from $40 million in 2001 to $4.3billion in 2011. Each year, growth is in thedouble-digits, and overall growth is more than100-fold.In terms of overall online ad spending, onlinevideo ad spending is growing its share, fromless than one percent before 2002 to nearly48
VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDSU.S. Online Video Advertising SpendingUS$ million %5,000Online video advertising spending as % of the total online ad spending124,500Online video advertising spending (US$ millions)9.84,000103,5007.94,30083,0006.23,1002,50064.72,0003.62,1001,50042.41,3501,0001.81.2 1.425000.97750.640 55 85 135 225410002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Ad Spending Growth 33.3% 37.5% 54.5% 58.8% 66.7% 82.2% 89.0% 74.2% 55.6% 47.6% 38.7%Note: eMarketer benchmarks its U.S. online advertising spending projections against the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)/PricewaterhouseCoopers(PwC) data, for which the last full year measured was 2006; includes in-page and streaming video.Source: eMarketer, June 2007 © World Association of Newspapers 2007-2008five percent in 2008. It is expected to achieve a9.8 percent share by 2011.In 2003, ad spending per U.S. online user was$1.63. This figure will exceed $12 in 2009.In 2011, spending is expected to reach $23.50per user. The growth rate in 2007 and 2008 isestimated at more than 50 percent, and growthis forecast to remain in the double digits forthe following years.ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKINGU.S. social networking ad spendingAccording to eMarketer, U.S. online socialnetworking ad spending will grow fromUS$350 million in 2006 to US$2.7 billion in2011. The overall growth of more than sevenfoldis at a consistent double-digit growth rateeach year.Average U.S. Online VideoAd Spending per Uservs. Average Growth, 2003 – 2011US$ Online video ad spending per user (US$) %25 Average growth (%)23.5 7059.5602052.117.6143.85043.3 41.3154012.46 33.428.610308.719.35.722051.63 1.94 2.49 3.59 1002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0Note: Age 3+; online video viewers defined as an individualwho downloads or streams video (content or advertising) at leastonce a month; eMarketer benchmarks its U.S. online advertisingspending projections against the Interactive Advertising Bureau(IAB)/PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) data, for which the last full yearmeasured was 2006; online video includes in-page and streaming video.Source: eMarketer, June 2007© World Association of Newspapers 2007-2008US$ million3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000U.S. Online Social NetworkAd Spending, 2006-2011350163%92070%1,56029%2,020Source: eMarketer, Dec. 2007© World Association of Newspapers 2007-200819%2,40013%2,7002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201149
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SPECIAL REPORTMAY 2008 © WANShapin
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