Haiti – Dominican Republic - Disasters and Conflicts - UNEP

Atlantic storms will double in the next century. 307Nevertheless this forecast is not universallyaccepted, as the debate continues regardingthe links between climate change and thefrequency and average energy of hurricanes inthe Caribbean. Other forecasts with relation toclimate change are increased temperatures and308, 309, 310increased rainfall variability and intensity.This, in turn will all have a negative impact on rainfed agriculture, the mainstay of the economy ofthe border zone.In summary, there is a high potential for somesort of shock in the border zone on at least anannual basis, although it is impossible to predictthe location, scale and intensity. Over a periodof 20 years, for example, this level of vulnerabilitytranslates into a near certainty for severalshocks, both minor and major. This has criticalimplications for forecasting and developmentplanning – essentially any forecasts and plansfor the border zone need to take into accountthe vulnerability and resilience levels of thelocal population, as well as the high probabilityfor shocks that will affect the current situationnegatively.Haiti – Dominican Republic: Environmental challenges in the border zone103