Wasting the Nation.indd - Groundwork

Chapter 7: The question of the futureAs noted in Chapter 4, the origin of the crisis lies in over accumulation and thefinancialisation of capital. The values conjured from the air in the form of carbontrading – itself symptomatic of the financialisation of capital – will melt. Waste, andthe economics of waste management, will be subject to more ambiguous changebecause waste, like real carbon as opposed to fictional carbon credits, represents realresources.Assuming that ‘the market’ is left to decide, several trends in waste can beanticipated:- The market definition of waste will be as volatile as the markets themselves.The price of recycled materials will be equally volatile. The informal market,however, will work to a different logic as more people look for survival in what‘the market’ abandons.- There will be less waste. Production waste will be reduced as productioncollapses. Post-consumer waste will reduce as households attempt to conserveresources. They will not have a free hand in this. As long as packaging isdesigned for dumping and goods are designed for obsolescence, the reductionwill come more from reduced consumption than from saving and re-use.- The collapse of commodity prices will collapse recycling markets but thisprocess will be uneven. Depression will also deter investments in high costraw materials extraction and so create shortages in some ‘virgin’ materials anda corresponding demand for recycled materials.- Even in a depression, the price of oil will not stay down long. Peak oil maybe delayed but only for a few years. While reduced demand will off-set thedecline in existing production, reduced investment will mean that less new oilis available to replace depleted wells. 104 Any signs of economic recovery will bemet with another round of price escalations.- Planners are likely to be constantly wrong-footed. Thus, plans responding tohigh oil prices may now be shelved. eThekwini, for example, may be temptedto abandon plans to contain soaring fuel costs through recycling. A contraction104 The International Energy Agency has been complaining for some time now that energy investments areinadequate to future needs. This remained the case even as the price rose from $20 to $50 to $100 to $140. Atthe time of writing, it has retreated to below $60, the clearest indication that the markets expect recession. Manyof the new oil projects now in prospect – extra deep sea, extra heavy oil or tar sand – require a price over $80 tobe viable and their proponents are now having second thoughts. Aside from price, the volatility of the market willitself be a deterrent. Even when prices start going back up, investors will not be certain how long they will stayup.- 180 - groundWork - Wasting the Nation