STATES OF EMERGENCY - Patrick Lagadec

The weapons of crisis 21appearances are capable of requesting second opinions from foreign labs, ofpublishing their own results, and of making decisions that run counter tothose of public authorities - and this means they create a serious potential fordestabilization (consider the problem of stopping or destroying production ofan item as soon as contamination is rumored, even if the applicable thresholdsare being respected). Large media groups can also undertake destabilizinginitiatives.In short, the old scenario that functioned according to a pyramidalhierarchy, in which legitimacy was derived from and reinforced byinstitutional status, and credibility came on the tails of prestige, no longerapplies. Those who try to make it work simply precipitate their own fall. Wenow live in societies where legitimacy and credibility are limited resourcesfor which there is serious competition. They are not accorded outright, butare allocated on the basis of previous performance, subject to renewal afterconsideration of comparable results. This social contract is immediatelyrevoked if the slightest official incompetence can be suspected (and abreakdown is evidence for conviction), if powers have been abused (andadopting technical options that include elements of major risk would certainlybe considered by some as an abuse of power), or if communication has beenblocked (which is the basic assumption). Clearly, it is very difficult tonavigate in a post-accidental situation through such a minefield.2. Crisis DynamicsBy necessity, we have examined individually the difficulties that can beraised by a technological breakdown. But in reality, a crisis is dynamic,combining all these factors. However, it does seem to move along three majoraxes:- Difficulties come in waves: no one can resist the avalanche of problemsto be solved or information to be distributed.- Organizational procedures and systems become disordered: themechanisms stop working or, worse yet, begin to backfire.- The purpose, goals, and fundamental structures of the system and itssubsystems are called into doubt: the life of the organization in question issuddenly riven by divisions.Waves of difficulties and disorder make players fragile and impotent. Thefundamental questioning is destabilizing, and it is made all the more acute andpowerful because the other two aspects have already shaken the system. Crisisdynamics are the summation of these three processes.The difficulties pile up. The battle must be fought over the long run, but attop speed as well. All sorts of protections suddenly prove to be cruelillusions. Sources of support fall away, and the system or systems begin toresonate dangerously. Actions taken to stabilize the situation are counteracted