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Trends of Development in TelephonyC JACOB/EUS, TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON, STOCKHOLMThis article sums up the present situation in differentUDC 621.395(047.1)LME 82, 83, 84fields of telecommunicationsin the light of the developments in telephony during the pastdecade, going on therefrom to what may he expected during the sixties on thebasis of the advances in fundamental sciences and in technology. The articleis adapted from a lecture given to the Swedish National Association of ElectricalEngineers on September 9, 1960.The time that has elapsed since the second world war has been one ofdynamic developments in telecommunications. Advances in theory, in technologyand in equipment design have led to the creation of new productswhich, in many important respects, have changed the conditions of people'slives and had an influence on many of the functions of society. Telecommunicationshave been an important factor in the growth of production ingeneral. They have also placed a number of new tools at the disposal ofresearchers, so contributing to the advances in the whole of our cultural life.The telecommunications industry has itself been among the most expansiveduring the postwar period.Telephony is one of the oldest branches of telecommunications. It hadreached a high engineering level even before the last war and, in terms ofoutput, predominated over all other branches of telecommunications. In mattersof technology, telephony has made a number of important advances sincethe war. The production of telephone equipment has risen considerably,though not as much as in several other branches of telecommunications. Newproduction units have also been established in countries which had earlier hadto rely on imports.In considering the trends of development in telephony, we may take as ourstarting point what has emerged during the fifties. We should perhaps firstconsider the situation as it appears to subscribers. For them the past tenyears have perhaps not been particularly dramatic, but the advance has beenon a broad front. One important event is the continuous expansion of subscriber-dialledlong distance calls. Another is the relative lowering of telephonerates as a result of the progressive rationalization of manufacture, installationand operation. The quality of service has at the same time been greatlyimproved. Internal communication systems of different kinds are being increasinglyused. The transmission performance of telephone sets has beenraised. New types of set have been evolved, and parallel sets for residential useare becoming increasingly common. New and better public call box apparatushas been designed; telephone answering machines have proved a valuableaddition to the service facilities. Finally, the perhaps greatest engineering featwithin the field during the fifties, the Atlantic cables have perfected the qualityof transmission on conversation across the Atlantic.102If we now peer instead into the future and wonder what new developmentswe may expect in the next ten years, we must first - if we are to keep toreally revolutionary matters - consider the advances in the fundamental sciencesof physics, chemistry and mathematics, which have not yet reached the
application stage. To be sure, the effects are not likely to be so radical as toalter the entire face of telephony or even a major part of it. From the subscribers'viewpoint no very sweeping changes will be made. The concept oftelephoning will have the same implication as it has now.But we can be quite certain that the specialists in all branches of telephonywill have their hands full during the sixties. A wider register of physical andchemical laws will be available. Technology will develop new components foruse in telephone plant. Telephone materials must be designed to meet newfunctional requirements. Operating methods need to be rationally reexamined,and so on. On the basis of the situation as it exists today, I shall try to givesome idea of what we may expect to see happen during the sixties.ComponentsThe fifties have seen the birth and, one may say, the coming of age of thesemiconductors. They have had a quite revolutionary influence on telecommunicationsas a whole and, as regards telephony, have meant, among otherthings, that one can give serious thought to electronic switching. They havealso had a great influence on telephone design and transmission technology.The most probable development in semiconductors during the ten years aheadis a continued growth in their reliability. Even now diodes and transistors arevery dependable elements with a satisfactory life span. Research is in progressthroughout the world, relating particularly to surface phenomena in semiconductors.It is thought that therein lies the key to the life problem. We shallundoubtedly see solutions to these problems, involving simpler encapsulationand so cheaper units.The diffusion method will be developed, and in that connection an inexpensivemethod will be found for attaching the leads. Silicon will graduallysecure a stronger footing, but this will take some time. The properties ofsilicon are not as a whole greatly superior to those of germanium, so that theprice will be an important factor. Only when the diffusion method is establishedon a broad basis will silicon elements be cheaper.Table 1. Relative costs of transistors (The Western Electric Engineer, July 1959, October1959, January 1960)p-n-pgermaniumalloyti-p-ngermaniumgrownp-n-pgermaniumdiffusedalloyn-p-nsiliconmesadiffusedp-n-pgermaniummesadiffusedSlice, clean, etch wafer . . .Form junction with wafer orbarLead attachmentPackage piece partsPiece parts processing ....SealingTestProcess inspection1 1272171072067334217123173832412713636151163332II211614533100150120507500S389 103
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