Africa's Missing Billions - Oxfam International
Africa's Missing Billions - Oxfam International Africa's Missing Billions - Oxfam International
Using the definitions from the Heidelberg Institute for InternationalConflict Research, Conflict Barometer , 28 we looked at 23 Africancountries that experienced armed conflict or severe violent crisis,between 1990 and 2005. 29 This included all African conflicts in thisperiod, apart from Somalia for which there are no data. Wecalculated what the GDP of each of these countries would have beenhad there been no conflict, by applying the average economic growthrate of countries at a similar economic level to that of the country inconflict. The growth foregone is revealed by finding the differencebetween each country’s actual GDP and this projected GDP. Figure 1demonstrates the result for Burundi.Figure 1: Cumulative GDP loss for BurundiThis method will underestimate the true figure because it does notinclude:• International costs: humanitarian aid, peacekeeping etc;• The economic impact on neighbouring peaceful countries;• The lingering economic impact once the conflict has beenofficially resolved – our estimation only covers the war years.Further information on neighbouring countries and long-termimpacts are included in Section 3. Just to reiterate, we have onlyestimated the costs of armed conflict, not economic losses due tocrime or societal violence.We have deliberately taken this conservative approach to ensure thatthe calculation does not exaggerate the cost of armed conflict toAfrica’s development. It is therefore particularly shocking that the8Africa’s missing billions, IANSA, Oxfam, and Saferworld, October2007
cost estimated for those 23 countries is $284bn (in constant year2000 $) from 1990 to 2005, representing an average annual loss of 15per cent of GDP. This amounts to an average of $18bn per year lostby Africa due to armed conflict. These figures are of courseapproximate. What is most telling, is that they are likely tounderestimate the true cost.This is a massive waste of resources – roughly equivalent to totalinternational aid to Africa from major donors during the sameperiod. 30 It is also roughly equivalent to the additional fundsestimated to be necessary to address the problems of HIV and AIDSin Africa, or to address Africa’s needs in education, clean water andsanitation, and help prevent the spread of TB and malaria. 31The average annual loss of 15 per cent of GDP represents anenormous economic burden – this is one and a half times averageAfrican spending on health and education combined. 32The table below gives some of the results per country as anillustration. Unsurprisingly, we find that in general, countries withbigger economies produce the biggest dollar losses, and long-lastingand widespread conflicts produce the biggest loss as a percentage ofGDP. So although the dollar loss in Eritrea, for example, seems tiny incomparison with DRC, the loss is still 11 per cent of GDP,representing an enormous economic burden. Again, it must beunderlined that GDP data from conflict countries are not alwaysreliable. The figures below should be regarded as estimates ratherthan precise calculations.9Africa’s missing billions, IANSA, Oxfam, and Saferworld, October2007
- Page 4 and 5: abuse human rights and ignore the r
- Page 6 and 7: conflict is one important factor in
- Page 10 and 11: Table 1: Selected country results f
- Page 12 and 13: Table 2: Key costs to the national
- Page 14 and 15: Direct costs, with a focus on medic
- Page 16 and 17: example, tend to be major losers in
- Page 18 and 19: Faso increased military investments
- Page 20 and 21: combatants and have brought their w
- Page 22 and 23: Exactly quantifying African product
- Page 24 and 25: principles of customary internation
- Page 26 and 27: Diversion from stockpiles: As state
- Page 28 and 29: Appendix: Methodology for cost toAf
- Page 30 and 31: Notes1 International Action Network
- Page 32 and 33: Education in Africa: $5bn/year, fro
- Page 34 and 35: 65http://www.oxfam.org.uk/applicati
- Page 36 and 37: 104 Amnesty International, IANSA, a
- Page 38: © The International Action Network
Using the definitions from the Heidelberg Institute for <strong>International</strong>Conflict Research, Conflict Barometer , 28 we looked at 23 Africancountries that experienced armed conflict or severe violent crisis,between 1990 and 2005. 29 This included all African conflicts in thisperiod, apart from Somalia for which there are no data. Wecalculated what the GDP of each of these countries would have beenhad there been no conflict, by applying the average economic growthrate of countries at a similar economic level to that of the country inconflict. The growth foregone is revealed by finding the differencebetween each country’s actual GDP and this projected GDP. Figure 1demonstrates the result for Burundi.Figure 1: Cumulative GDP loss for BurundiThis method will underestimate the true figure because it does notinclude:• <strong>International</strong> costs: humanitarian aid, peacekeeping etc;• The economic impact on neighbouring peaceful countries;• The lingering economic impact once the conflict has beenofficially resolved – our estimation only covers the war years.Further information on neighbouring countries and long-termimpacts are included in Section 3. Just to reiterate, we have onlyestimated the costs of armed conflict, not economic losses due tocrime or societal violence.We have deliberately taken this conservative approach to ensure thatthe calculation does not exaggerate the cost of armed conflict toAfrica’s development. It is therefore particularly shocking that the8Africa’s missing billions, IANSA, <strong>Oxfam</strong>, and Saferworld, October2007
Change language