Africa's Missing Billions - Oxfam International

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conflict is one important factor in this. 8 Compared to peacefulcountries, African countries in conflict have, on average:• 50 per cent more infant deaths 9 ;• 15 per cent more undernourished people; 10• Life expectancy reduced by five years; 11• 20 per cent more adult illiteracy; 12• 2.5 times fewer doctors per patient; 13 and• 12.4 per cent less food per person. 14The value of the Human Development Index (HDI) drops, pushingthe average conflict country from medium to low development, 15 andGDP per capita is reduced by $1120 (63 per cent). 16 Of course, costsare not borne equally across the population, and inequalities oftenrise as many conflicts are fought along regional, social, religious, orethnic lines.In non-conflict situations, Africa is also disproportionately affected byviolence from firearms. It has 14 per cent of the world’s populationbut 20 per cent of the world’s firearm homicides, second only to LatinAmerica. 17 This is perhaps not surprising, as the guns made availablethrough armed conflict are one factor dictating levels of armedcrime. 18Data on armed crime in Africa are in short supply, but anecdotalevidence suggests that it is rising in a number of countries. Accordingto law enforcement officials, armed robbery increased sharply inGhana from 1999 to 2001 (latest figures); 19 in Kaduna, northernNigeria, firearms homicide increased by over 130 per cent in 1999–2000 20 and there has been a rise in gangster violence, including aproliferation of armed ‘cults’ in institutions of higher learning. 21 Innorthern Kenya, livestock rustling, banditry, and insecurity involvingpastoralists have become widespread and increasingly severe, withwomen and children constituting around a quarter each of alldeaths. 22What is crucial here is that this is armed violence. Just as thecontinuing supply of arms and ammunition sustains and increasesthe lethality of conflicts, so arms increase the deadliness and widenthe impact of societal violence, domestic violence, and crime. Forexample, in Nigeria, researchers have linked the increase of crime inLagos, with the increase in availability of firearms 23 . In a survey ofover 200 people, the infiltration of arms was given as a major cause ofarmed insecurity in northern Kenya 24 . In a well-armed community,fist-fights become fire-fights, leading to an ‘arms race’ in whichyoung men feel the need to be armed. 256Africa’s missing billions, IANSA, Oxfam, and Saferworld, October2007
As the Kenyan Foreign Minister said, ‘Conflict is part of the history ofmankind. My part of the region is no exception to this historical fact.There are enough reasons to cause conflict like religious, ethnic andclan difference. Poor people tend to have even more causes forconflict. But when guns get into the calculus then it becomes a recipefor disaster.’ 26Reducing levels of armed violence requires many actions to be takenby African governments and by the international community, indiverse areas such as conflict prevention, governance, anddisarmament. Oxfam, Saferworld, and IANSA members are workingin many of these areas. We acknowledge and recognise the multifacetednature of the issue and that the root causes of armed conflictin Africa – such as poverty, poor governance, and inequality – mustbe addressed. Indeed, these factors can lead to a high demand forarms and there is a need for more work to address this.However, this particular report does not aim to be comprehensive inits search for solutions. It has been written to support discussions onthe Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) currently under consideration in theUnited Nations. The research for this paper confirms what weintuitively know, that the vast majority of weapons used in Africa arenot made in Africa. So as one key part of the solution, we must lookat arms flows into Africa.2 Counting the cost of armed conflictIn new research for this report, we have estimated the economic costof armed conflicts to Africa’s development. Because ofmethodological challenges and weaknesses in the data, the results areapproximate but they will, for the first time, provide a figure to helpshow the scale of the threat facing development in Africa.Our estimationThere is no standardised methodology to calculate the cost of conflict.We have used a method similar to that used by Stewart andFitzgerald, in their influential War and Underdevelopment, 27 where theyused the fall in gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of costs in14 conflicts. GDP shows the combined value of all goods and servicesproduced in one year, and will be seriously affected by armed conflictin a variety of ways; Section 3 explains how this happens. Thismethod (see below and further in the Appendix) is robust enough toprovide an order of magnitude result.7Africa’s missing billions, IANSA, Oxfam, and Saferworld, October2007
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Page 8 and 9: Using the definitions from the Heid
Page 10 and 11: Table 1: Selected country results f
Page 12 and 13: Table 2: Key costs to the national
Page 14 and 15: Direct costs, with a focus on medic
Page 16 and 17: example, tend to be major losers in
Page 18 and 19: Faso increased military investments
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Page 22 and 23: Exactly quantifying African product
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Page 26 and 27: Diversion from stockpiles: As state
Page 28 and 29: Appendix: Methodology for cost toAf
Page 30 and 31: Notes1 International Action Network
Page 32 and 33: Education in Africa: $5bn/year, fro
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Page 38: © The International Action Network

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