Air China's - Orient Aviation

SPECIAL REPORTAirportsGRASP THE NETTLEGovernments urged to prepare for airport capacity crunchBy Charles AndersonFo r g e t t h e i n c r e a s i n g l ycontentious issue of airportu s e r c h a r g e s . W h e n i tcomes to ensuring the rightinfrastructure is put in placeto handle the break-neck boom in aviationin some areas of the Asia-Pacific, experts at AirportsCouncil International (ACI)and the International AirTransport Association (IATA)have much in common.The figures explain why.ACI’s predictions of 6.4%average regional growthin domestic passengernumbers and 5.7% forinternational travellersevery year from now until2020 are way above globalfigures of 3.7% and 4.7%respectively.I ATA , m e a nwh i l e ,expects a 60% to 70%traffic increase over thenext two years in Chinaalone. India notched up a24% rise in 2005.Freight predictions forthe region run at 6.9% to2020, compared to a global 5.4%.All those aircraft need somewhere totake off and land in a safe and commerciallyviable environment. Continuing pressureis needed from the outside to ensure thatis the case.Paul Behnke, ACI’s director of economicsand security, pleads for authorities inindividual countries the grasp the nettle.“The short answer is that governments needto be hit over the head on a daily basis withthese problems if they are going to cope withthe capacity crunch that we see coming. It hasalready arrived in certain cases,” he said.50 ORIENT AVIATION MAY 2006‘Governments needto be hit over thehead on a dailybasis ... if theyare going to copewith the capacitycrunch that we seecoming’Paul BehnkeDirector of economicsand securityACIGuenther Matschnigg, IATA’s seniorvice-president, safety, operations andinfrastructure, calls for consultation beforeprojects start. “It’s imperative that wedevelop a dialogue before an airport is evendeveloped,” he said. “It’s a basic businessprinciple. Look to your users. Ask themwhat they want.”For Behnke, however, theproblem has already arrived. Arecent ACI survey of its globalair port members includedpredictions about “constrained”and “unconstrained” demand;increases based on projectedgrowth patterns, continuingliberalisation of air services andgross domestic product, versusthose mainly hampered byregulatory, politicaland environmentalconstraints.Globally, ACIfears a one billionshortfall in passengercapacity by 2020,by which time itpredicts a 7.4 billionthroughput at theworld’s airports. Itbelieves constraintscould cut averageannual increases from 2005until then from 4% to 3.2%. Theimmediate worry, however, isthat the shortfall is just aroundthe corner.“We thought the constraintswould be delayed, because mostairports would be able to absorb5% to 10% growth in the next fiveyears without any problems,” said Behnke.“When we collected the data, we were shockedthat a lot of airports said the constraints wouldstart almost immediately. In 2007 and 2008,they will already be in trouble.“We are talking time horizons here.That’s why I was so shocked when I saw ourown numbers; that our airports are worriedabout the near term.”One answer is to talk continually toofficialdom. “We have a lot of help here.This is where IATA agrees with us,” saidBehnke.The ACI man has specific pointers forhow the Asia-Pacific should act. “We wouldlike to see more liberalisation there rightnow,” he said. “There are two reasons forthat. One is there is a lot of pent-up traffic,particularly in the low-cost sector. Theother reason, which is near and dear to us,is that using secondary airports as relieversfor international traffic and point-to-point[services] makes a lot of sense.”This particularly applies to China, wherepoint-to-point traffic wouldcut out the need to rely onmain hubs such as Beijingand Shanghai. “That is howEurope and the U.S. havegrown, through bypassinghubs. Eventually you haveto do that, but you can onlydo it with a liberalisedregime,” said Behnke.He estimates that up toa dozen of China’s airportsare doing well; but thatsome 80 others are underutilised,many of whichare in big cities. And this isnot just a Chinese problem.“The same can be said ofJapan. We see this all overthe region,” he added.India, the Asia-Pacific’sother great growth market,is a little different. A liberalised regime wasnot as yet accompanied by the capacity todeal with growth, although expansions atDelhi, Mumbai and Bangalore, with thehelp of outside airport companies, showed‘It’s imperativethat we develop adialogue beforean airport is evendeveloped’Guenther MatschniggSenior vice-president,safety, operations andinfrastructureIATA