Tackling Obesity in England - National Audit Office

TACKLING OBESITY IN ENGLANDThe prevalence of obesity in Englandhas almost tripled since 1980 and willincrease further on present trends2.5 In 1980, eight per cent of women and six per cent ofmen were classified as obese. By 1998, the prevalenceof obesity had nearly trebled to 21 per cent of womenand 17 per cent of men, and there is no sign that theupward trend is moderating. This reflects a world-widetrend which is most marked in, though not restricted to,developed countries (Appendix 3).2.6 Given that the current level of obesity in England isunprecedented, it cannot be extrapolated forward withany degree of certainty. But if the average rate ofincrease in the prevalence of obesity between 1980 and1998 continues, over one fifth of men and about aquarter of women in England will be obese by 2005,and over a quarter of all adults by 2010 (Figure 4). Thiswould bring levels of obesity in England up to thoseexperienced now in the United States. Ourextrapolation is simple, but quite possibly realistic.Evidence suggests that obesity isincreasing more rapidly in Englandthan in other parts of Europe2.7 In the majority of European countries, where lifestylesand cultures are essentially comparable, theInternational Obesity Task Force estimates that theprevalence of obesity increased by between 10 to40 per cent from the late 1980s to the late 1990s 11 . InEngland, however, prevalence nearly doubled over thisperiod. This means that, whilst in the late 1980s the4 Trends in the prevalence of obesity amongst men andwomen in England extrapolated to 20103025prevalence of obesity in England was towards the lowerend of the range for European countries, by the late1990s it had moved to near the top of the range.(Although directly comparable figures for individualcountries are not available, the Task Force estimates thatprevalence varies between different countries in Europefrom 10 to 20 per cent for men, and from 10 to25 per cent for women).The distribution of obesity in thepopulation2.8 Some people are at a high risk of becoming obese forvery specific reasons. For example, children who have atleast one obese parent are at higher risk of being obesethemselves, reflecting general household patterns ofeating and physical activity 12 , as well as genetic factorsthat may explain differences in the way individualsrespond to similar lifestyles. Other high risk groupsinclude recent successful weight reducers, who areprone to regain weight unless they sustain changes totheir lifestyle in the long term, and people who haverecently stopped smoking who may experience aheightened appetite 13 . People with physical or learningdisabilities may also be at high risk of becoming obese,in particular when opportunities for exercise arerestricted.2.9 A detailed analysis of the distribution of obesity inEngland is given in Appendix 4. The main points are:nnnnobesity in the population increases with age;the prevalence of obesity amongst schoolchildrenappears to be increasing, which potentially bearsmajor risks for the health of the future adultpopulation;people in lower socio-economic groups, particularlywomen, have an increased risk of obesity;there is a higher prevalence of obesity amongcertain ethnic groups, in particular among BlackCaribbean and Pakistani women; and% obese (BMI >30)201510nobesity is a growing problem in all regions inEngland. Prevalence in 1998 ranged from18 per cent of adults in the lowest regions to22 per cent in the highest, and in all regions hadrisen since it was previously measured in 1996.50part two12Note:Source:1980Men19851990Women1995Year20002005Figures beyond 1998 were extrapolated on a straight line bythe least squares method on the basis of data from 1980National Audit Office analysis of data from the Health Survey forEngland 12010